与主流媒体的表述相反，新的研究发现比特币和莱特币的价格并不会受区块奖励减半的影响。
Contrary to the expression in the mainstream media, new studies have found that the prices of Bitcoin and Lightcoin are not affected by the halving of block incentives.
寻找其中的因果关系
Looking for causality
人们渴望因果关系。但加密货币市场出现的一切往往与人们想要的相反-加密数字货币一种接近完美的随机性和波动性投机道具。尽管如此，人们对因果关系的渴望导致主流媒体围绕可能的极具随机性的价格变化来建立自己的观点。
But everything that happens in the crypto-currency market is often contrary to what people want – crypto-digital money, a near-perfect random and volatile speculator. Nonetheless, the desire for causality leads the mainstream media to build their views around possible random price changes.
福布斯写道：“在Libra听证会结束之后，比特币价格开始回升。”据路透社报道，“神秘的订单”引发了2019年牛市的开始。QZ表示，USDT的发行是比特币近期复苏的主要潜在因素。
Forbes wrote: “After the Libra hearing, bitcoin prices began to rise.” According to Reuters, “mysterious orders” triggered the start of the cattle market in 2019. QZ said that the release of USDT was a major potential factor in Bitcoin’s recent recovery.
独家｜比特币24h链上交易量上升50.75% 未确认交易数超过5.5万笔:金色财经消息，据欧科云链OKLink链上数据显示，比特币24h链上活跃地址数逾81.71万，环比下降5.63%；链上真实交易量近59.38万BTC，环比上升50.75%；链上交易笔数逾25.2万笔，环比上升1.88%。
The number of transactions in the exclusive bitcoin 24h chain rose by 50.75 per cent, and the number of unconfirmed transactions exceeded 55,000: the golden financial news, according to the data on the Okoun chain OKLink, showed that the number of active addresses in the 24h chain exceeded 8.17 million, a 5.63 per cent decline in the ring ratio; the real volume of transactions in the chain was close to 59.38 million BTC, a 50.75 per cent increase in the ring; and the number of transactions in the chain exceeded 252,000, a 1.8 per cent increase in the ring.
截至上午10时，比特币全网难度为20.00T，全网算力为130.75EH/s，较前日下降0.75EH/s，未确认交易数达5.52万笔。[2020/10/27]
As at 10 a.m., Bitcoin had a full Internet difficulty of 20.00 T, a full Web capacity of 130.75 EH/s, a decrease of 0.75 EH/s from the previous day, with an unconfirmed number of transactions amounting to 5.52 million. [2020/10/27]
然而，即使具有逻辑基础的现象也可能易于寻找因果关系。加密货币爱好者普遍认为，区块奖励减半导致价格上涨。而且，该逻辑是合理的。如果矿工挖到的比特币减少，那么卖方压力就会减少。因此，供应减少应导致相应的价格上涨。
However, even if there is a logical basis, it may be easy to find causality. It is generally accepted by encoded currency fans that the block incentive is reduced by half, leading to higher prices. Moreover, the logic is reasonable.
动态 | 安全公司：新西兰Cryptopia交易所被盗ETH再次发生异动:据成都链安Beosin-AML反平台监测分析结果显示，近日以来，新西兰Cryptopia交易所一月份被盗ETH再次发生异动，关键地址0x9481bd在向多个地址分散转移了共600余枚ETH之后，沉寂了一段时间。近日，这些分散地址中，地址0x211d4向币安充币地址转入247个ETH，地址0x094b67a将14.68ETH通过层层转移和混合流入Yobit交易所，另有20个ETH经过0xd0595b地址资金混合之后，转入Kraken和火币充币地址。通过成都链安持续追踪分析发现，黑客分散和转移资金的过程繁杂而有序，通过庞大的地址数量进行资金拆分并通过资金混淆及其他洗白资金的方式意图逃避追踪。[2019/12/4]
Security company: The theft of ETH from the Cryptopia Exchange in New Zealand has reoccured: according to the results of the monitoring analysis of the Beosin-AML counter-platform in the Chengdu chain, the theft of ETH in January by the Cryptopia Exchange in New Zealand has reoccured for some time since the key address 0x9481bd was transferred to more than 600 ETHs at multiple addresses. In recent days, these scattered addresses, 0x211d4 were transferred to ETHs, 0x094b67a, 14.68 ETHs were separated through layer transfers and mixed inflows into Yobit Exchange, and 20 ETHs were transferred to Kraken and the pyroche repository addresses after a combination of 0xd0595b addresses. Through continuous follow-up analysis in Chengdu, it was found that the process of dispersing and transferring funds was complicated and orderly, dispersing funds through large addresses, and attempting to evade tracing them by confusing and other means of laundering funds [2019/12/4]
莱特币最近引人注目的表现将这种表述带入主流媒体。从2018年12月的低点22美元起，莱特币在7月份飙升480％至130美元的新高-成为在牛市中跑赢比特币的少数资产之一。包括CryptoSlate在内的出版物将价格上涨归因于即将到来的减半。数据显示我们错了。
From a low of $22 in December 2018, Lettco jumped to a new height of $480 to $130 in July – becoming one of the few assets to win bitcoin in the cattle market. Publications, including CryptoSlate, attribute price increases to about half of what is coming.
行情 | BTC对法币中交易日元占比为51.75%:据coinhills数据，当前BTC对法币交易中，日元占比已经超过一半达到51.75%，美元占比为43.08%，随后韩元占比2%、欧元占比1.17%、英镑占比0.65%。但如果将USDT列入统计，USDT对BTC交易仍占绝大部分达到69.66%，日元占比将降至10.89%、美元占比降至10.80%。[2019/2/4]
BTC accounts for 51.75% of transactions in French: according to Coinhills, the current BTC accounts for more than half of transactions in French currency, 51.75% in Japanese yen and 43.08% in United States dollars, followed by 2% in Korean won, 1.17% in euro, and 0.65% in pounds sterling. If USDT is included in the statistics, USDT accounts for the majority of transactions in BTC, 69.66% in Japanese yen, 10.89% in Japanese yen and 10.80% in United States dollars. [2019/2/4]
关于减半的价格影响的研究
Study on the impact of halving prices
来自西雅图的创业公司StrixLeviathan的NicoCordeiro和AvaMasucci进行的研究，专门研究加密货币市场的工程和交易操作算法，挑战了减半对币价产生重大影响的观念。
A study carried out by Nico Cordeiro and AvaMasucci of the business start-up company Strix Leviathan from Seattle, which specializes in engineering and transactional algorithms in the crypto-currency market, challenged the idea of a significant impact of halving on currency prices.
研究人员分析了24种加密货币的32个减半，并将这些与整体市场基准进行了比较。在每个减半之前和之后六个月评估每个币的价格，并与在相同时间范围内没有经历减半事件的加密货币价格进行比较。
Researchers analysed and compared 32 of the 24 encrypted currencies by half with the overall market benchmark. The price of each currency was assessed before and six months after the reduction, and the price of the encrypted currency that did not experience the halving event within the same time frame was compared.
“在减半之前和之后的分歧和看似随机的结果表明推动价格的潜在因素并非供需动态的转变。”
“disagreements and seemingly random results, both before and after halving, indicate that the underlying factors driving prices are not shifts in the dynamics of supply and demand.”
然后，StrixLeviathan比较了自己研究的加密数字货币。从历史上看，价格的变化应该在减半期间增加。然而，研究人员发现，经历减半事件的加密数字货币在减半之前或之后并没有经历过大的波动或回报。
And then Strix Leviathan compares the encrypted digital currency that he has studied. Historically, price changes should increase during the halved period. However, researchers found that the encrypted digital currency that experienced the halving event had not experienced significant fluctuations or returns before or after the halving.
“我们发现，资产的减半时期与其减半时期之外的回报分布的回报分布表明，它们在99％的置信水平下在统计上是相同的。换句话说，我们没有找到证据表明减半事件会导致定价行为异常，而我们正在处理间接性错误。“
“We find that the distribution of returns between the halving of assets and the distribution of returns beyond the halving of their time shows that they are statistically identical at 99% of the confidence level. In other words, we have no evidence that halving events could lead to abnormal pricing behaviour, and we are dealing with indirect errors.”
总之，研究人员总结道：
In sum, researchers conclude:
“我们没有发现任何证据表明，在矿工奖励减少之前和之后的几个月里，加密货币资产经历了减半的事件表现优于大盘。”
“We have found no evidence to suggest that in the months before and after the miner's incentives were reduced, the encoded currency assets had a better performance than the one that had been halved.”
“虽然减半的观点作为一种逻辑理论肯定是可行的，但同样可能的是，我们正在处理一种有效性的假象，而之前的牛市运动只不过是增加资产类别中的投机水平。”
“Although the idea of halving is certainly feasible as a logical theory, it is equally possible that we are dealing with an illusion of effectiveness, whereas the former cattle movement merely increased the level of speculation in asset classes.”
在充满噪音的加密货币世界中生存
Live in a world of noise-filled encrypted money.
最终，加密货币市场由试图强迫大部分随机市场变动的因果关系的人主导。“金融市场的世界充满了成千上万的逻辑和思想构想的理论，这些理论在实践中并不真实，”Cordeiro和Masucci简洁地说道。
Ultimately, the crypto-currency market is dominated by causality that seeks to force most random market changes. “The world of financial markets is full of tens of thousands of theories of logic and ideology that are not real in practice,” said Cordeiro and Masucci succinctly.
投资比特币和其他加密货币的人需要警惕这种偏见。“顶级”加密交易者有他们今天的地位，不是因为他们的技巧，而是出于纯粹的运气。据称由大型新闻事件引起的许多市场运动可能仅仅是随机性的。还有一种可能的怀疑论，例如Tether的价格在实际操纵着并一直推动价值150亿美元的比特币市场，它们可能会错误地利用减半这一因果关系来向人们证明这种上涨效应。
Many market movements that are alleged to have been triggered by large news events may be merely random. There is also a possible suspicion, for example, that the price of Tether is actually manipulated and has been pushing the $15 billion bitcoin market, and that they may wrongly use halving the causal link to prove this upward effect.
在一个充满噪音的世界里，保持怀疑态度是很重要的。但是，如果您认为比特币将继续上涨，那么最合理的解释可能是在很长一段时间内平均进入市场的美元成本或价值成本在增加，请大家忽略周边噪音并学会看懂长期趋势。
In a world of noise, it is important to remain skeptical. But, if you think that bitcoin will continue to rise, the most reasonable explanation is that the average dollar or value cost of entering the market will increase over a long period of time, so ignore the noise around you and learn to understand long-term trends.
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