首先要说明，对于比特币，我是个看空派，不喜勿喷！
First of all, for bitcoin, I'm a vagabond. I don't like to spray!
如果2018比特币再一次疯涨，别说20万RMB一枚，就是50万，我的内心也不会感觉失去了一个一夜暴富的机会。在比特币刚出来的时候，我也参与了一下，后来还没等比特币暴涨我就退出了，原因是当时高层放话不承认比特币是合法币种，建议谨慎参与。后来的走势大家都清楚了，一度超过1万美刀，说实话这种行情更加坚定了我对比特币看空的观点。
If the 2018 bitcoin went mad again, not to say 200,000 RMB, half a million dollars, and I didn't feel like I had lost a chance to be rich overnight. When Bitcoin first came out, I took part, and I quit before waiting for Bitcoin to surge, because high-level rhetoric did not recognize Bitcoin as a legitimate currency and advised careful participation.
历史上曾经有个非常典型的事件，荷兰郁金香，相信大家都听说过，小小的一枝花也炒出了天价。最后的最后，是投资者血本无归，千百万人倾家荡产。这是一次人类历史上有记载的最有名的投机活动，郁金香泡沫、郁金香效应甚至成为经济学术语。
There has been a typical event in history, Dutch tulips, and it is believed that everyone has heard that a small flower has been fired. Finally, investors have lost their lives and millions of people have lost their lives. This is the most famous speculation ever recorded in human history, with tulip bubbles, tulip effects, and even economic terms.
可见，疯狂投机的后果非常严重，即便是你认为你是高手可以成功躲避，但你敌得过庄家吗，敌得过人性的弱点吗？在我看来，比特币投资也是疯狂投机，即便比特币是含着“区块链概念”出生的，但其价值绝对没有炒作的高。
So, the consequences of crazy speculation are very serious, even if you think you're a good man to hide from, but do you have an enemy against a dealer and a human weakness? In my view, Bitcoin investment is a wildly speculative one, even if it was born with the concept of a “block chain”, but its value is absolutely not high.
你可以想一想，钱币如果没有主权、无法跟踪和监管，最终的结局只能是转入地下见不得光。即便现在有的国家认可比特币，也是有一定特殊目的，目的达到之后卸磨杀驴是早晚的。所以，我的建议是当做热闹看，不要羡慕，也不要遗憾！
Think of it as if the coins were not sovereign, untraceable, and unsupervised, and eventually ended up in the dark. Even now that some countries accept Bitcoin, there is a special purpose, and it is sooner or later to kill a donkey when the purpose is achieved. So, my advice is to make fun of it, not envy it, and not regret it.
对于普通人来说比特币涨到多少就只能作为谈资消遣一下，这个风险过大没闲钱的最好不要轻易去玩，庄家往往忽悠散户接盘！不是说比特币没有价值，而是有心之人在幕后操控这一切，就让这件事情变得不那么简单
For ordinary people, the amount of bitcoin rises can only be fun. It's better not to play with the risk of too much money. The dealer is always in the dark. Not to say that bitcoin is worthless, but that someone with a heart is behind it, making it less simple.
比特币在2018年超过3万美元是有可能的。
比特币有可能成为现有货币体系的补充，也就是数字黄金的概念。
Bitcoin has the potential to complement the existing monetary system, i.e. the concept of digital gold.
货币的价值来源于共识，而不是信任。有价值的货币自身根本不需要信任。只有没有价值的纸币才需要政府信用背书。
the value of money comes from consensus, not trust. Valuable money itself does not need trust. Only worthless banknotes require a government credit endorsement.
金银钻石都不需要政府信用，但是它们的价值共识已经形成，当然就可以作为货币使用。那么钌，钯，铼这些金属当货币使用，你认可吗？当然不认可，因为价值共识没有形成，哪怕这些金属含量和金接近甚至比黄金更稀少，但是你也不会使用这些金属来当成货币。因为价值共识没有形成。
Gold and silver diamonds do not need government credit, but they have developed a consensus of value that can be used as a currency. So
货币的意义在于充当一般等价物，主要作用促进经济活动与价值流通。货币本身没有价值，只能作为“价值尺度”而存在。如果比特币也能被人们认可，也可以充当“价值尺度”的存在，那么比特币当然可以充当货币的补充而存在下去。
Currency is meant to be a general equivalent that promotes the flow of economic activity and value. Money itself has no value but to exist as a “value measure.”
就像上面这张面值100万亿的津巴布韦纸币，政府信用在极端情况下，并没有那么的好用。
Like the Zimbabwean banknote on top, which is worth 100 trillion, government credit is not so good in extreme circumstances.
不管二十万能不能到，比特币的浮动都不是一般人能接受的。一天百分之二十的浮动家常便饭，投资一百万一天二十万没了谁能接受得了。如果非要追溯哪些成功者经历，我想成功都是能忍别人不能忍的压力！
Whether 200,000 or not, bitcoin floats are not acceptable to anyone. Twenty percent of a day's floating household usually eats and invests a million dollars a day and 200,000 won't be acceptable to anyone. If I don't have to look back at the success stories, I think success is the pressure that others can't bear.
很抱歉，从目前比特币的行情趋势来看2018年之前比特币最巅峰的时期，应该将止步于今年1月份2万美元高度，按照当时的汇率来讲，折合人民币14万元不到。
I'm sorry that, given the current trend in bitcoin, the peak of bitcoin by 2018 should have stopped at the height of $20,000 in January of this year, which, according to the exchange rate at that time, was less than 140,000 yuan.
想要在未来的几个月内再次冲击20万元人民币的比特币无异于痴人说梦，除非9月底的比特币ETF申请顺利通过，再加上其他一些政策性的利好才可以。
Bitcoin, which wants to hit the RMB 200,000 again in the coming months, is nothing less than a wild dream, unless the Bitcoin ETF application at the end of September is successfully approved, coupled with other policy advantages.
以前曾经回答过在比特币2万美元时买入是怎样的一种体验，虽然没有在比特币14万人民币一枚时买入，但那种感觉应该不是很奇妙，就像被挂在了喜马拉雅山顶。
I've previously answered what it was like to buy $20,000 in bitcoin, although it wasn't bought in bitcoin for 140,000 yuan, but it shouldn't be amazing, like being hung up on the top of the Himalayas.
比特币的牛市很短暂，从今年2月开启了比特币熊市一直延续到了现在。并且这种趋势依旧在蔓延，数字货币总市值已经从6000亿美元萎缩到现在的不到2000亿美元，当前的市场环境和资金已经不能再支撑比特币新的起飞，即使明年比特币的行情如果有好转真的达到了20万人民币一枚，那也基本上是少数人的狂欢现在手里持有比特币的人不多，而真正能持有到那个时候的更是少之又少。
首先，你计算错误。2009年刚开始交易时，一美元可买1300个。今年三月七日最高价是61800美元，涨了8034万倍。其次去中心化匿名性不可监管总量限定导致资本涌入推高价格。最后这东西消耗了电力具有一定的价值。 First of all, you miscalculated. When the deal started in 2009, a dollar could buy 1,300. On March 7, the highest price was $61,800, an increase of 8.034 million. The second was to decentralize the unsupervised aggregate limit, which caused capital inflows to push prices up. 钱肯定不是风刮过来的。 I'm sure the money didn't come from the wind. 币圈一直有美国资本主义收割论的观点，个人认为不一定是国家行为，只是资本家利用资本优势进行的收割。 The currency circles have always held the view that it is not necessarily an act of the State, but a harvest by capitalists who take advantage of capital. 现在币价这么高？那钱怎么来的？ How did you get the money at such a high price? 比特币没有实物，本质只是通过显卡运行计算出来的一串代码。因为有比特币信徒信仰比特币，坚信比特币的价值，才有了比特币价格的上升。就像黄金，本身只是贵金属，因大家都信任他，视他为一般等价物，加上政府的背书。黄金才有了价值。 Bitcoin is not physical, but essentially just a code that is calculated by running through a visible card. The price of bitcoin rises because its followers believe in bitcoin and believe in bitcoin’s value. Like gold, which is itself a precious metal, because everyone trusts him, treats him as a general equivalent, plus endorsement by the government. Gold has value. 简单聊下今年币价上涨的原因 Let's talk about the reason for this year's price increase. 1、比特币挖矿难度上升 1. Bitcoin mining difficulties increase 比特币挖矿有个难度曲线，到2020年的4月份，挖矿难度会增加，单位时间挖出的矿越来越少。供求紧张。 Bitcoin has a difficult curve, and by April 2020 it will be more difficult to dig and fewer and fewer mines per unit of time to dig. Supply and demand are tight. 2、全球疫情的爆发和对未来经济发展的不确定性。 The outbreak of the global epidemic and uncertainty about future economic development. 很多小国家因为各种原因导致本国货币超发，价值超跌。而这个时候比特币的总量恒定，稀缺性就成了救命稻草，很多资金买入比特币避险，推动价格升高。 Many small countries, for a variety of reasons, have lost their currencies and their value. At a time when the amount of bitcoins remains constant, scarcity becomes a life-saving straw, and much of the money is bought into bitcoins to avoid risk, pushing prices up. 疫情的影响。疫情加重了世界经济发展的不确定性。而类同黄金的避险一样。买入比特币的避险资金越来越多。而且由于比特币的匿名性。是洗钱和逃税的绝佳工具吧。 The impact of the epidemic. The epidemic has increased uncertainty about the development of the world economy. Like the risk of gold. The risk of buying bitcoin is increasing. And because of the anonymity of bitcoin, it is an excellent tool for money-laundering and tax evasion. 3、马斯克的背书。 Three, Musk's endorsement. 马克思改变了世界思想，马斯克改变了世界财富格局。 Max changed the world's mind, and Mask changed the world's wealth . 马斯克宣布要买入15e美元的比特币，后续不排除特斯拉支持比特币支付。这是一剂催化剂。同时也有很多其他美国大公司买入。 Mask announced that he would buy 15-e dollars in bitcoins, not excluding Tesla from supporting bitcoin payments. This is a catalyst. There are also a lot of other big American companies. 4、资本大鳄的异动。 4. The heterogeneous movement of capital. 最有名的美国灰度，前期一直在大量囤积低位的比特币，现在更是继续推动币价。各种散户闻风入场。 America’s most famous greyscale, which has been hoarding up large amounts of low bitcoins in the previous period, continues to push currency prices even further. A variety of street-based scandals have entered. 5、美元的大量超发。 5. Significant excess hair in United States dollars. 美元对标的泰达币usdt，1ustd等于1美元。tether公司将发行的泰达币（稳定币）将数字货币（比特币）跟美元直接挂钩。一定程度是上仍然确定美元的霸主地位。美元超发，泰达币超发。
6、大量散户的涌入。 6. The influx of large numbers of dispersed households. 以上种种种原因推动比特币价格不断上涨。现在已经涨到非理性的程度。如果这个涨幅是放在5—10年，比特币可能还会持续的久点。不然我怕是泡沫。 These reasons drive the price of bitcoin to rise. It has now risen to an irrational level. If the increase were to be in 5-10 years, bitcoin could last a little longer. 至于矿工提现真正能提到多少？ How much can the miners really talk about now? 挖矿的成本：矿机的费用 电费 运营成本 场地的费用 The cost of mining: the cost of a mine machine, the cost of electricity, the cost of operation, the cost of a site. ps：矿场主想大量出币的话，会有一定的折价 Ps: The mine owner would have a discount if he wanted to give a lot of money. 欢迎大家指正 Welcome, everyone. 具体可以看我头条写的比特币文章，那个稍微详细点。 You can see the bitcoin article on my headline, that's a little more detailed. 免责声明：本文为转载，非本网原创内容，不代表本网观点。其原创性以及文中陈述文字和内容未经本站证实，对本文以及其中全部或者部分内容、文字的真实性、完整性、及时性本站不作任何保证或承诺，请读者仅作参考，并请自行核实相关内容。 如有疑问请发送邮件至：bangqikeconnect@gmail.com If you have questions, send an e-mail to: bangqikecontract@gmail.com
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