當地時間14日凌晨，伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊使用彈道導彈和無人機對以色列領土發動軍事打擊，作為對以色列稍早前轟炸伊朗使館的報復。據報道，以色列國防軍發言人丹尼爾·哈加里14日凌晨說，伊朗向以色列發射了大約200個導彈和無人機，其中多數在以色列以外被攔截，少數落入以色列。位於以色列南部的一座以軍基地在襲擊中受到「輕微損失」。另外，一名以色列平民受傷。
In the early hours of 14 hours of local time, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards used ballistic missiles and drones to launch military strikes against Israeli territory in retaliation for the bombing of the Iranian embassy earlier in Israel. In the early hours of the morning, it was reported that Israel’s defense spokesman, Daniel Haghari, had said that Iran had fired around 200 missiles and drones into Israel, most of which had been intercepted outside Israel and, to a lesser extent, had fallen into Israel. An Israeli military base in southern Israel had suffered “negative losses” in the attack.
中東「火藥桶」持續點燃，地緣政治緊張局勢再次升溫，全球各方高度關注事件最新進展。對於投資者來說，雖然本次襲擊恰好發生在周末，金融市場處於休市狀態，但估計緊張的神經已經開始繃緊，以等待周一開盤時間的到來。因為幾乎每次重大衝突事件的爆發，全球金融市場陷入劇烈動盪不可避免。
Middle East "powder drums" continue to ignite, political tensions are re-heated, and the latest developments in high-profile events around the globe are being followed. For investors, although the attack happened on weekends, the financial market is in a state of retreat, but the nervous nervous state has begun to stagger to wait for Monday's opening hour. As a result of almost every major clash, it is inevitable that the global financial market is inflammated.
這從全天候交易的數字貨幣的走勢或可窺見一斑。14日凌晨3點之後，受伊朗大規模襲擊以色列的影響，比特幣價格上演高台跳水，一度跌超7000美元，從67181美元跌至60000美元下方，為自2023年3月以來的最大跌幅，截至發稿跌幅收窄，交易價格在64500美元附近；以太坊一度從3200美元跌至2800美元下方，截至發稿回升至3074美元，其他數字貨幣也錄得類似走勢。CoinGlass數據顯示，24小時內，虛擬幣市場共有超過25萬人爆倉，爆倉總額9.57億美元。
This may be seen from the round-the-clock trading of digital currency. After 3 a.m. 14 days, influenced by Iran’s massive assault on Israel, Bitcoin fell into a high-level dive of $7,000, falling from $67181 to $60,000 below, the largest fall since March 2023, with the price of transactions falling close to $64,500 by the time of the release; at one time, the Taipan fell from $3,200 to $2,800, and up to $3074, with other digitized currencies on the line. CoinGlass figures show that in 24 hours, the virtual market had more than 250,000 blasts and a total of $957 million.
圖表來源CoinGlass
map source CoinGlass
黃金又要漲了？
The gold's going up again?
從過往的風險事件來說，戰事衝突的發生往往令資金湧向避風港灣，黃金和原油往往會受益，全球主要股市會受壓大幅回落。近段時間以來，也正是由於地緣政治緊張局勢持續，伊朗揚言要報復以色列，黃金和原油得以徹底爆發。
In the case of past risky events, the conflict has often led to a spiral of capital towards safe havens, while gold and crude oil tend to benefit, and major global stock markets have suffered a significant fall in pressure. It is precisely because of geopolitical tensions that Iran has been threatening to retaliate to Israel, and gold and crude oil have exploded.
首先說黃金，自今年2月中旬以來，黃金節節攀升的態勢令很多分析師都錯愕不已，上周五，現貨黃金價格一度衝破每盎司2430美元的大關，隨後在多頭獲利了結的催化下從高位跳水，日內波動超過90美元。儘管如此，黃金價格仍維持在過去很多投資者認為不可企及的高位，上周五，現貨黃金收報每盎司2343美元附近，年初至今黃金累計上漲接近14%。
First of all, gold, the rise of the Golden Festival since mid-February, has caused many analysts to be dismayed by the fact that, last Friday, the price of gold in cash broke the threshold of $2430 per ounce, then jumped from high heights, with many profit-making catalysts, and more than $90 per day. Nevertheless, the price of gold has remained high, perceived by many past investors, and last Friday, close to $2343 per ounce for cash gold, which has risen by nearly 14% since the beginning of the year.
作為傳統的避險資產，黃金近來備受資金追逐，除了與中東局勢持續緊張、多國央行增持黃金、聯儲局降息預期等因素密不可分之外，很大一方面因素是投機行為所導致，這可能是很多分析師感嘆無法理解近期黃金漲勢的原因。擊鼓傳花之下，瘋狂的資金炒作一浪接一浪，共推黃金漲上天。其中，來自東方的一股神秘力量——「中國大媽」，無疑是其中的重要推手，買漲不買跌的心理預期下，當下「炒金」再度風靡全國。
As a traditional risk-free asset, gold has recently been pursued, in addition to factors such as constant tension with the Middle East, the increase in gold by the central banks, and the Federal Reserve's expectations, a large part of which is the result of investment, which may be the reason many analysts find it impossible to understand the recent rise in gold. Under the rumours, crazy capital is pouring in one wave, and the same gold is being pushed up to the sky. Of these, a mysterious force from the East — the Chinese Grandmother — is undoubtedly an important push, with the buying boom being a non-buyer's psychological advance, and the current “selling money” is once again becoming national.
現如今，伊朗已兌現報復以色列的「承諾」，明日開盤後，黃金價格走勢會如何呢？恐怕投資者又得陷入一陣激烈的「搏殺」了。至於金價會如何演變，最終還得看以伊衝突的走勢會如何發生了，但劇烈波動不可避免。
now that Iran has paid off Israel's promise, what will happen to the gold price after tomorrow's opening?
黃金期貨日K圖（富途牛牛APP截圖）
Kmap for Golden Futures Day
原油料會獲得升力
至於原油價格，相信不用多說，中東緊張局勢是左右原油價格走勢的重要力量之一。當戰火在石油資源豐富的中東地區燃燒，投資者會認為這將左右全球原油的供應格局，導致原油價格持續攀升。受地緣政局緊張局勢的催化，當下油價已躍升至去年10月以來的最高水平。上周五，紐約商品交易所5月交割的西得克薩斯中質原油（WTI）合約觸及87.67美元的盤中高點，而6月布倫特原油期貨上漲至92.18美元。
As for the price of crude oil, it goes without saying that the situation in the Middle East is one of the most important forces in shaping the price of crude oil. When the fighting burns in the middle and east of the Middle East, where oil resources are abundant, investors will think that it will shape the global supply pattern of crude oil, leading to a steady rise in the price of crude oil.
猶記否，迄今被公認的三次石油危機，分別發生在1973年、1979年和1990年，都與中東戰局有關，推動原油價格大幅走高，在原油市場留下了不可磨滅的印記。2022年2月爆發的俄烏戰爭亦不例外，一度將原油價格推高至130美元一桶的大關，直接導致全球通脹高企，市場花了約一年多時間才緩過神來。如今以伊衝突爆發，今年已持續回升的原油價格，最終又會走向何方呢？這無疑最終要視乎會否戰事升級，但就短期而言，很多分析師相信油價至少會再上一個階梯，但很難像以往幾次那樣大幅走高。
whether the three oil crises that have been recognized so far were related to the Middle East War in 1973, 1979, and 1990, respectively, pushing the price of crude oil up sharply and leaving an indelible mark on the crude oil market. The Russian war of February 2022 was no exception, pushing the price of crude oil up to $130 a barrel, leading directly to a global high market that took more than a year.
戰事會升溫否？
& nbsp; & nbsp; will warm up ? ? /strong >
就避險知產來說，除了避險之王黃金，美債、美元和日圓也是傳統的重要選項。近段時間以來，美國發布的強勁經濟數據和就業市場的火爆，令市場對聯儲局的降息預期大為降溫，美元指數獲得強勁動力，美債收益率重獲升勢。上周五，衡量美元對六種主要貨幣的美元指數當天上漲0.72%，在匯市尾市收於106.038。以伊衝突之下，可能使得近期上漲的美元再添動力，從而令全球其他大多數貨幣承壓。不過，可能日圓除外，一來日圓也是資金的避風港；二來日本高官持續向市場口頭喊話，表示如果日圓繼續走貶會入場干預，很多分析師認為這兩個因素可能會使得日圓兌美元的跌幅有限，甚至會從歷史低位小幅反彈。
In terms of risk-free knowledge, the dollar, the dollar, and the yen are important traditional options, in addition to the king of risk-free gold. In recent times, strong economic statistics and the explosion in the market market have been released in the United States, which has caused the market to cool off its expectations, the dollar index has gained strong momentum, and the dollar’s return on debt has re-emerged. Last Friday, the United States dollar rose by 0.72% to the dollar of the six major currencies, at 106.338 in the end of the market.
路透社圖片
全球高度矚目的以伊衝突已然發生，但好在全球金融市場有大概一天的時間來消化相關信息。往往來講，全球股市最怕大型戰爭的爆發，比如，上一輪俄烏衝突令全球股市大幅下挫。本輪以伊衝突會否令全球股市承壓呢？就美股來講，近期美股在降息預期降溫的背景下，已經從創歷史紀錄的高位回落不少，如果戰事升級，美股或會再迎來重拳一擊，從而帶動全球主要股市回落，投資者需要為此做好心理準備。 The global high-intensity conflict has taken place in Iran, but there is about one day in the global financial market to absorb the relevant information. Often, the global stock market is most afraid of large wars, for example, the last round of Russian-Russian conflicts has caused the world’s stock markets to collapse. 截至發稿，距離伊朗向以色列發動大規模軍事行動已經過去了近12個小時，從各方消息來看，伊朗方面說伊朗軍事行動已經結束，但武裝部隊處於戒備狀態。如果以色列採取行動襲擊伊朗在敘利亞的利益，伊朗將予以還擊。以色列已進入戰時狀態，歐美等西方多國已發表了聲援以色列的措辭，但美國似乎並不希望以色列進行報復令事態升級，拜登和他的高級顧問高度擔心，以色列的反擊或將導致一場具有災難性後果的地區戰爭。那麼，以色列是否會「以牙還牙，以眼還眼」呢？投資者不妨拭目以待。（記者
朱輝豪） 頂圖：路透社圖片
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