区块链大数据指标概述
Summary of block chain big data indicators
指标释义
Interpretation of indicators
账户/钱包/地址
Account / Wallet / Address
在BTC为首的UTXO模型与以太坊为首的Account模型中，我们所常说的账户/钱包/地址会有所区分，为了方便对后续内容的理解，解释如下：
In the UTXO model headed by the BTC and the Acaccount model headed by the Taiku, the account/ purse/address that we often refer to will be distinguished in order to facilitate the understanding of the follow-up elements, as follows:
- 比特币网络中的地址用以存储BTC，但是同一个钱包下可以有多个地址分别存储资金，绝大多数的交易发生时候，是从同一个钱包下的一个或者多个地址，将比特币发送给一个或者多个地址，接收比特币的地址可能同属于一个钱包下的不同地址，也有可能属于不同钱包下的多个地址。
- 以太坊网络中的地址包括两类，一类是合约地址一类是普通地址，转账交易发生时，资金的流向的记录方式是在不同地址之间直接发生的，每个钱包下一般是一个地址。
- 中心化交易所的地址：我们在中心化交易所所开设的账户，一般会被交易所“授予”一个“入金”地址，用以接收链上冷钱包/其他交易所/中心化钱包等所充值入的资金。
- 交易的记录：区块链的记录方式是交易信息而不是账户/地址信息，所以建立但并未发生交易的地址并不会被记录，同理对于中心化交易所中“授予”的地址若未发生交易，是不会被记录在链上的，所以链上数据主要包含的是那些已经创建并发生交易的数据。
- 充值与提现：交易所的充值与提现在比特币和以太坊上的方式各不相同，在比特币网络上，常见的交易所账户结构是在一个为用户开立入金地址的钱包下设立“归集”地址，当用户资金充入被授予的地址后，会通过交易找零或者提现找零的形式完成归集【找零是UTXO网络特有的转账记录方式，可以简单理解为用100元想买90元的东西，需要支付100元并找回10元零钱，只是找零动作并不是接收方进行的而是系统机制设计执行的】，以太坊上则是通过将入金地址的资金归集到“热钱包或者说归集地址中”而实现。
- 新增地址：对于下文中的新增地址及新增入金账户而言，全部都为发生在网络上新收到资金的普通地址数量的统计，并不是“全部网络”新增地址的统计，尤其在以太坊上，我们认为仅仅充入Token而无ETH的普通地址直到充入ETH之前都是无法发生直接交易的，且合约地址我们并未作为新增地址的统计口径。
有价值的链上数据-以太坊
Valuable Data on the Chain - Etheria
在ETH的数据中，我们将其分为基础指标和交易指标两类，基础指标包括ETH的持有新增地址，活跃地址，交易金额，交易笔数。
In the ETH data, we classify it as a base indicator and a transaction indicator, which includes ETH holding additional addresses, active addresses, transaction amounts, transactional amounts.
交易指标则分类为，交易笔数/交易金额/平均交易金额/交易地址数【钱包数】/分区间的交易金额/人均交易金额/大额交易笔数/大额交易金额/大额交易笔数占比/新增地址。
The transaction indicators are classified as the number of transactions/transactions/average transaction amounts/transactions/transactions/transactions between divisions/transactions per capita/substantial transactions/substantial transactions/substantial transactions/transactions/subsistences/Additions.
其中新增地址有两个统计口径分：当日新收到ETH的为新增地址；当日新收到ETH的即为新增，但将其追溯到其在链上出生的日期统计。
Two statistical calibers were added to the new address: the new ETH was received on the same day; the new ETH was received on the same day, but it dates back to the date of its birth on the chain.
表2中红色为与价格相关性高于0.5的指标，黄色为相关性低于-0.4的指标【负相关】。
Table 2 shows red as an indicator more relevant to prices than 0.5 and yellow as an indicator less relevant than -0.4 [negatively relevant].
新增地址/活跃地址/交易笔数等反应人口活动情况的指标的相关性相对更高，未经处理的交易金额【链上的交易量，单位为枚】等相关性较低，交易金额较小区间的部分【转账数量在10eth以下的交易】与价格构成较好的相关性，所以当我们非常关注大额交易以及交易所的充值提现金额/量的时候，我们发现链上指标往往与价格相关性不大。
Indicators that reflect population activity, such as the number of new addresses/active addresses/transactions, are more relevant, the value of unprocessed transactions is less relevant [the number of transactions in the chain, in units of item], and the portion of the smaller transaction amount [the number of transactions under 10th) is more relevant to the price, so when we are very concerned about large transactions and the amount/volume of cash raised by the exchange, we find that the chain indicators are often not relevant to the price.
这是因为错误的观察和数据处理方法导致的，当交易量被处理成对法币的交易金额的时候，相关性有很大提升【详见后续章节】。
This is due to erroneous observation and data-processing methods, which increase significantly when transaction volumes are processed into transaction amounts in French currencies [for further details see subsequent chapters].
有价值的链上数据-比特币
Valuable Data on the Chain - Bitcoin
在BTC的数据中，我们同样将其分为基础指标和交易指标两类，基础指标包括BTC的持有新增地址，活跃地址，交易金额，交易笔数。
In the BTC data, we have also divided it into two categories: BTC holding new addresses, active addresses, transaction amounts, and transactional amounts.
交易指标则分类为，交易笔数/交易金额/平均交易金额/交易地址数【钱包数】/分区间的交易金额/人均交易金额/大额交易笔数/大额交易金额/大额交易笔数占比/新增地址。
The transaction indicators are classified as the number of transactions/transactions/average transaction amounts/transactions/transactions/transactions between divisions/transactions per capita/substantial transactions/substantial transactions/substantial transactions/transactions/subsistences/Additions.
这里我们暂时不提供地址所属钱包维度的汇总统计数据，同以太坊一样表中红色为与价格相关性高于0.5的指标，黄色为相关性低于-0.4的指标【负相关】。
For the time being, we do not provide aggregate statistics on the size of the wallet to which the address belongs. As in Taipan, red is an indicator that is more relevant to prices than 0.5 and yellow is less relevant than -0.4 [negatively related].
我们发现由于前述我们所说的UTXO的特性，ETH上相关性高的指标，不完全与BTC价格相关性高，但是依然有几个指标达到了80%以上的相关性，后续我们也会展开说明。
We find that because of the characteristics of UTXO that we have described above, indicators of high relevance on ETH are not fully relevant to BTC prices, but there are still several indicators that are relevant to more than 80 per cent, and we will explain them later as well.
链上数据与价格之间的相互作用
The interaction between data and prices on the
链上数据记录了用户因受到价格波动的影响而发生的行为，这些行为又会进一步的影响价格的波动乃至走向，链上数据与价格波动是相互作用的关系，尤其在对价格“波动幅度”的影响方面。
The data on the chain document the behaviour of users as a result of exposure to price volatility, which in turn further influences price volatility and even direction, and the interaction of data on the chain with price volatility, particularly with regard to the impact on price “variability margins”.
价格 波动
Price Volatility
价格涨跌，以及趋势会影响用户的行为，比如对单边趋势的一致认知会让合约类交易所的交易变的旺盛，同时充值的流入量也会变大。
Price increases and falls, as well as trends that affect user behaviour, such as the convergence of perceptions of unilateral trends, can lead to a boom in contract-type exchanges, as well as larger inflows of full value.
链上 体现
on the chain
链上数据体现了从矿工到不同类型交易所的的变现路径，有未来看涨预期时，矿工习惯滞留资产，并在未来通过大宗otc完成交易，但是当未来价格看跌的时候，矿工往往会倾向开始将资金充入交易所交易或者套期保值。
The data on the chain represent the path of realization from miners to different types of exchanges, and when future expectations are raised, miners are accustomed to remaining in assets and trading through bulkotc in the future, but when future prices fall, miners tend to start charging funds to exchange transactions or hedges.
加剧 影响
链上数据是价格发生变化时候的心态的直接表现，用以观察市场信心的认知，但是我们需要在处理时候将交易所账户分类为“场间套利账户”“大户”“散户”以进行区分，链上数据变化越猛烈，接下来的1-3天的行情波动越大。
The data on the chain are a direct manifestation of the mindset at the time of price change and are used to observe the perception of market confidence, but we need to distinguish the exchange account from the “large” “silos” of the “inter-field arbitrage account” at the time of processing, with the sharper the change in the data on the chain and the more volatile the movement over the next 1-3 days.
新鲜用户发展与价格关系
Fresh user development and price relations
从一枚数字资产被创造起，价格随着时间的推移产生波动，但是我们往往更关注那些持有时间很早的资金的交易情况。
Since a digital asset was created, prices have fluctuated over time, but we tend to focus more on transactions that hold funds at an early age.
持币地址的增加值
value added to currency holding address
持币地址的增加与价格的相关性肉眼可见，并且以太坊的新增持币地址数的峰值在价格峰值之前出现拐点，其中，BTC的新增地址与价格的相关性为0.65，ETH则达到了0.9。
The relevance of the increase in the number of currency addresses to the price can be seen, and the peak of the number of new currency addresses in the Taiku has been reversed before the price peak, of which the BTC's new address has a correlation of 0.65 to the price and ETH has reached 0.9.
BTC新增地址的相关性略低主要原因在于BTC的UTXO模型，如前所述，BTC存在大量的多个地址归属于一个钱包的情况，比如交易所的一个钱包下可能有数十万上百万的入金地址外加个别的归集地址，这些地址每一个对应一个“用户实体”，但是在冷钱包的使用上，却有可能会是几个地址归属与某一个钱包，这个钱包对应一个“用户实体”，所以当我们从新增钱包的角度来看，同时将交易所的地址也对应在实体上来处理的时候，相关系数就变得高了一些（由于仍在尝试剔除混币，数据暂无法提供）。
The main reason for the slightly lower relevance of the BTC's new address is the BTC's UTXO model, which, as noted earlier, has a large number of multiple addresses belonging to a wallet, such as a wallet under which the exchange may have hundreds of millions of cash entries plus individual collection addresses, each corresponding to a “user entity”, but with respect to the use of a cold wallet, several addresses may be attributed to a wallet, which corresponds to a “user entity”, so that when we look at the new wallet and also treat the exchange's address on an entity, the coefficient becomes higher (as the data are still being unavailable due to attempts to remove the coins).
ETH最近的异常则主要表现在价格下跌，但是新增地址没有巨大波动，价格上涨的动力是严重不足的，这也导致交易所充值，大额交易等压力类指标在该部分随意的一个增幅都带来不小跌幅。
Recent ETH anomalies are mainly reflected in falling prices, but there are no large fluctuations in new locations, and the incentive for price increases is seriously inadequate, which also leads to exchange overvalues, with a moderate drop in a random increase in this segment for stress indicators such as large trades.
活跃用户的发展
Development of Active Users
两个主流币种的活跃用户与价格/市值的相关性同样很高，尤其是在以太坊上边，当然这同样与BTC的UTXO模型有一定的关系。
Active users in the two main currencies are equally highly relevant to price/market value, especially in the upper etheria, which, of course, is also relevant to the BTC UTXO model.
如果说最近一段时间的新增地址有去年9.4同期的水平的话，活跃地址来看则要远高于去年9.4的水平了，相较于一年前的今天，约减少25%的水平。
If the recent additions to the address are at the same level as in 9.4 last year, the active address appears to be much higher than in 9.4 last year, which is about 25 per cent lower than it was a year ago today.
从时间分布来说，btc价格峰值时期，日活跃地址约113.6万，交易所相关的充值提现地址为10.4万。5月小高峰时，分别为62.65万，4.1万。最近一个月则变成了61.8万，和2.8万。交易所相关活跃地址占比从9.15% 6.54% 4.53%连续下滑。ETH对应数据则为35.6% 30.6% 24%的连续下滑。
In terms of time distribution, the btc price peaks, with an active day address of approximately 11.36 million, and the exchange-related replenishment address of 104,000. At the small peak of May, 62.65 million and 41,000, respectively. In the last month, the exchange-related active addresses have fallen continuously, from 9.15 per cent to 6.54 per cent and 4.53 per cent. The ETH corresponding figure is 35.6 per cent and 30.6 per cent, respectively, and 24 per cent.
上述活跃我们仅限定为与这两种币相关的交易数据，这种下滑直接反映了用户的交易热情的不断降低，价格的波动较为无力。
The above-mentioned dynamic, which is limited to transactional data related to both currencies, is a direct reflection of the declining trade enthusiasm of users and the weak volatility of prices.
附不完全统计的ETH交易所余额变化（含冷钱包）
Changes in ETH exchange balances with incomplete statistics (including cold wallets)
新用户与老用户的对比情况【ETH】
Comparison of new and older users [ETH]
以太坊上1-7天的新鲜用户的占比逾价格的相关性极高，我们认为从交易的角度来说，这部分行为对价格更加敏感。
The ratio of fresh users over price is extremely relevant in the 1-7 days in the Tai Po, and we believe that it is more sensitive to price from a transactional point of view.
新地址只有在交易所开户/链上新增冷钱包地址/发生资金快速转移的过路地址等情况时才会出现，而那些出生日期在45天以前的老地址，往往是为了存储或者功能性目的存在【如交易所的归集地址】。
New addresses arise only in the event of the opening of an exchange's account/chain with a new cold wallet address or a passing address where funds are quickly transferred, whereas older addresses with a birth date 45 days ago often exist for storage or functional purposes [e.g. the exchange's collection address].
我们甚至倾向性的认为，新用户会带来价格的动力，老用户会带来价格的压力。
We even tend to believe that new users will have price incentives and older users will have price pressures.
我们还要特别关注的是这些活跃地址的归属，矿工/交易所/项目/基金的分类情况，当我们剔除掉那些活跃地址中非交易所入金地址的过路地址的时候，我们能看到更多的市场力量的博弈信息。
We are also particularly concerned about the attribution of these active addresses, the classification of miners/exchanges/projects/funds, and we can see more information about the game of market forces when we remove the entry addresses of the active address from the Central African Exchange.
新韭菜指数【相关性：0.95】
[Relevance: 0.95]
我们承接对ETH活跃用户的分析，我们发现，在以太坊上，每天发生的eth交易用户是新建立的地址（新用户）还是老地址（老用户）与价格（对数）的相关性是非常高的，右图中白色的部分是当日活跃用户中，于45天之前出生的占比。
Based on our analysis of the active users of ETH, we found that in Etheria, the relevance of the newly created address (new user) or the old address (old user) to the price (logarithm) is very high, with the white part of the right figure being the share of the active users who were born 45 days ago.
从趋势来看近期的以太坊新用户占比在不断的降低，对未来的价格走势来看是是悲观的。
The recent decline in the share of new users in Ethio is pessimistic about future price trends in terms of trends.
老用户为价格带来压力，新用户为价格带来动力，而很明显的，整个市场的新用户供给严重不足。
Old users exert pressure on prices, new users drive prices, and it is clear that the supply of new users across the market is seriously inadequate.
新用户与老用户的对比情况【BTC】
Comparison of new and older users of [BTC]
BTC的新老用户则不像ETH的用户那样明显，我们可以清晰的看到两段数据是颇为相似的，或者我们需要做更深层次的加工，这里只做呈现，就不进一步展开了。
The new and old users of BTC are not as obvious as those of ETH, and we can see clearly that the two pieces of data are quite similar, or that we need to do deeper processing, and this is just a presentation, not a further development.
故而我们可以转向对BTC网络上未花费的BTC的持有时间来做分析，在比特币的UTXO模型中，每一笔BTC的末次交易时间都会被记录，直至发生了新的交易【被花费】。
So we can turn to the unspent BTC holding time on the BTC network, and in the UTXO model of Bitcoin, every last BTC trading time is recorded until a new transaction [was spent] occurs.
UTXO未花费【相关性：93%】
UTXO not spent [relevance: 93%]
在今年四月对BTC的研究中，Unchained Capital的Dhruv Bansal做了对UTXO未花费账户分布的研究，我们也尝试做了类似的数据处理，如图：1图 为百分比堆积图，2图 为绝对值堆叠图。其中下部浅色部分代表每天交易的BTC中很快被交易的部分，上部深色部分则代表这部分BTC在很长时间里没有被交易。
In a study of BTC in April of this year, Dhruv Bansal of Unchained Capital did a study of the distribution of undispensed accounts of UTXO, and we tried to do similar data processing, for example, diagrams: 1 for percentage stacking and 2 for absolute stacking. The bottom portion of the light part represents the part of the BTC that is traded every day that is quickly traded, while the upper dark part represents that part of the BTC has not been traded for a long time.
我们可以清晰的看到，那些1天-3个月内获取并花费的btc的占比情况与BTC价格【对数】的发展趋势影响是高度相关的，这与以太坊相似，新鲜的用户所进行的交易的占比直接反映了用户的交易热情和新进入市场的用户的交易心态，可惜的是，在最近半年的数据来看，这一趋势在不断下滑。
As we can see clearly, the ratio of btc acquired and spent over a one-day to three-month period is highly correlated with the impact of the BTC price [logarithmic] trend, which is similar to that of Ethio, where the share of transactions conducted by fresh users is a direct reflection of the enthusiasm of users and the trade mentality of new entrants, a trend that unfortunately has been declining over the last six months.
曾有研究机构基于此预测本轮熊市会在2019年的一季度触底，其预测的方法是在1图中取占比6-12个月的上边界的趋势发展进行预测。
Based on this prediction by research institutions of the end of the quarter of 2019, the projected method is to forecast trends at the upper border of 6 to 12 months in figure 1.
交易用户的发展和变化情况
Developments and changes in users of transactions
数字资产市场每月新增开户数最近半年大概维持在30万左右，这包含了一人多交易所多户的情况，新开户入金用户不足，需要持续更长时间的积累。
The monthly openings of the digital asset market have remained at around 300,000 in the last half of the year, covering more than one exchange, a shortage of customers of new openings and the need to accumulate over a longer period of time.
交易所的新开户情况
New opening of the exchange
我们尝试通过数据分析的方式，还原交易所每天的新增入金账户，我们将注册交易所并新进行ETH和BTC充值的地址视为新增充值地址。这里包括了一人多户的情况。
We're trying to restore the exchange's day-to-day additions to the cash account by means of data analysis, and we're looking at the addresses where the exchange is registered and the new ETH and BTC charges are added. This includes more than one household.
用户充值的几个来源分别是：跨交易所转账/链上/otc/钱包充值/场间套利
Several sources of user charging were: cross-exchange transfers/chains/otc/ purse charged/field arbitrage
我们曾在今年的7月份做过一个简单的用户访谈，访谈样本约1000人，这个统计数据不一定准，但是可以作为参考，这1000人中，约有50%的客户使用某交易所的服务，并直接在该交易所otc市场入金，这类用户并不会出现交易所充值和提现的情况。
In July of this year, we conducted a simple user interview with a sample of about 1,000 people, a statistical figure that is not necessarily accurate, but that can be used as a reference. About 50 per cent of these 1,000 clients use the services of an exchange and make money directly on the exchange's otc market, and such users do not have exchange charging and withdrawals.
BTC目前每天新增开户入金数大约在1000左右，ETH则在4000左右【不包括token类的新开户，非常少】，那么当下的全球新增开户数大概在24-30万左右，这基本是2013年中国A股市场的水平。一个并不值得乐观但是也不值得悲观的数字，交易所对老客户的价值发现将是接下来熊市中的重点问题。
The BTC now has about 1,000 new account openings per day, and the ETH is about 4,000 (not including token-type new accounts, very few), so the number of new accounts opening around the world now is around 24 to 300,000, which is basically the level of China’s A-share market in 2013. A figure that is not to be optimistic, but not to be pessimistic, and the exchange’s value to old customers will be the focus of the next Bear City.
交易所的每日充值用户数
Day-to-day charging users on the
那么从充值用户的角度来看，BTC大约每天1万户的水平，ETH每天大约3.7万户的水平，粗略估计不到141万户每月，两者教去年同期相比少了一半，与9.4阶段相比略低。
From the point of view of the users of the full value, then, the BTC has a level of about 10,000 households per day, and ETH has a level of about 37,000 households per day, roughly estimated at less than 1.41 million households per month, which is half less than last year's education in the same period and slightly lower than in phase 9.4.
主要的原因在于一方面较多的资金在交易所内流转，每天的充值来源中约有超半数是用户在交易所之间的转账。
The main reason is that, on the one hand, more funds flow within the exchange and more than half of the daily sources of replenishment are transfers between users.
场间套利的机会在减少，利润也变得微薄。市场没有赚钱效应，导致用户交易动力严重不足。
The opportunities for arbitrage are diminishing, and profits are becoming thin. Markets do not have a profit-making effect, leading to a serious lack of incentives for users to trade.
交易所每日新增提现地址数
Exchange for
提现的新增我们并不认为是新用户的出现，而仅仅是一个新钱包的出现，这一指标中BTC约为8000每天，ETH约为9000每天。
The additions are not seen as the emergence of new users, but merely as the emergence of a new wallet, in which BTC is about 8,000 per day and ETH is about 9,000 per day.
提现资金一般会进入其他交易所进行交易【或套利】，每天仅有少量会滞留在链上。
Cash withdrawals are usually traded on other exchanges [or arbitrage], with only a small amount remaining on the chain every day.
但是提现行为的新增地址数指标与价格的相关性是非常高的，价格每次涨幅和下跌都会伴随这一行为的增加和减少，而这一行为又反向的影响和加剧价格的走势和波动。
However, it is mentioned that the existing index of new address numbers is highly relevant to prices, and that each price increase or fall will be accompanied by an increase or decrease in the behaviour, which in turn will have a negative impact and increase the trend and volatility of prices.
交易所每日提现用户数
Exchange daily current users
每日提现用户数同样与价格的相关性非常高，不论是BTC还是ETH，当趋势来临时，在链上数据所呈现出来的即时反馈很明显。
The number of daily users is equally highly relevant to prices, whether BTC or ETH, and when trends are temporary, immediate feedback from data on the chain is evident.
从交易用户的视角出发，我们发现数据与价格的相关性普遍较高，于此同时，用户增长的趋势也会反向的影响价格的波动以及趋势的“猛烈”程度。
From the point of view of the users of the transaction, we find that data are generally more relevant to prices and that, at the same time, the trends in the growth of users also have a reverse impact on price volatility and the extent to which the trends are “intensity”.
我们认为提现指标是一个比较轻的价格动力指标，但在最近一轮的价格大跌中，链上数据的下滑趋势也明显走了出来，最近仍在持续降走低。
We consider the present indicator to be a lighter price-driven indicator, but the downward trend in data on the chain has also been evident in the recent round of price collapses and has continued to decline in recent times.
从数据的发展趋势来看，并不具备快速反弹和牛市更快到来的前提条件。
In view of the trend in the data, there are no preconditions for rapid rebounds and faster arrival of the cattle market.
相互作用研究-低相关数据与价格指标
Interaction studies -- low-relevant data and price indicators
这一节我们主要呈现一些错误的数据观测方法，和一些看似相关性很低的数据在处理之后所反映的现实价值和意义。
This section highlights some of the erroneous data observation methods and the practical value and significance of data that appear to be of low relevance after processing.
交易所充值金额【BTC】
Exchange charge [BTC]
BTC的交易所充值数量与价格本身的相关性只有0.06左右，但是不论是媒体还是数据公司，包括我们自己，非常喜欢给用户提供这个充值提现和余额净增长变化的数据的，因为用户好理解。 但是我们现在认为这是不合理的一个做法，因为很明显这个数据与价格的趋势的关系非常低，但是一切信息都会最终反映在价格上，数据需要被处理使用。
BTC’s stock-filling volume is only about 0.06 per cent relevant to the price itself, but both the media and data companies, including ourselves, are very fond of providing users with data on the change in the charge and net balance increase, as the users understand it well. But we now see this as an unreasonable approach, because it is clear that this data is very low in relation to price trends, but all information will eventually be reflected in prices, and the data will need to be processed.
所以我们通过如下的数据处理方法来探索这个数据，我们将充值的BTC的数量乘以当天的时价，构成了对法币的充值金额，然后对这个充值金额取了7日移动平均线，也就是说用过去七天的移动平均数来描绘这一指标变化的趋势，我们发现他跟价格的关系的相关性变得非常高。
So we explore this data through data-processing methods such as the following: we multiply the number of BTCs charged by the current price of the day, which constitutes the amount charged to the French currency, and then we take a seven-day moving average of this amount, which means that the movement averages of the past seven days have been used to describe the trend in this indicator, and we find that his relationship to the price has become very high.
交易所的充值我们往往认为是价格压力的来源，因为大概率是用来“卖出”的，所以随着这一指标的不断提高，价格向下的压力也会变大。
Exchange charging is often seen as a source of price pressure, as the approximate rate is used to “sale out”, so as this indicator continues to rise, so does downward pressure on prices.
交易所充值金额【ETH】
Exchange charge [ETH]
与之相似，ETH的交易所充值金额我们做了相似的处理，我们发现不管是说对价格的反映来说也好，还是说这个指标对价格压力程度的判断也好，都是有价值的探索。
Similarly, ETH's exchange charging amounts have been treated in a similar way, and we have found that this indicator is a valuable exploration, whether it is a good response to prices or a good judgement of the degree of price pressure.
我们常说的价格=价值*预期，卖出的预期的增加配合新生的动力的不足，最终导致的就是价格出现的掉头向下。
What we often say is price = value * anticipates that the expected increase in sales will be matched by a lack of fresh momentum and eventually lead to price reversals.
尤其是近期的以太坊的价格，随着BTC和整体大盘的下跌，以太坊的价格区间进入了今年以来的低位，但是如果我们去关注链上仍在发生的交易和参与的生态比如稳定币的增加/STO等等的话，以太坊的价格是进入了低估区间的。
In particular, with the recent decline in the prices of the BTC and the overall plate, the price of the BTC has reached its low level since this year, but if we pay attention to the ecological increases/STOs of the ongoing transactions and participation in the chain, such as the increase of the stable currency, etc., the price of the BTC has entered the undervalued zone.
交易所大额充值金额【BTC】
同样的，我们将对大额交易做了与充值金额类似的处理，但是这次的移动平均线取的是14天，也就是说用过去14天的大额充入交易所来观测其与价格的关系，我们发现即使是在BTC上，相关性也是肉眼可见的高。
Similarly, we will treat large transactions in the same way as the amount charged, but the moving average line was taken for 14 days, that is to say, using the large amount that has been charged to the exchange over the past 14 days to observe their relationship to prices, and we find that even on the BTC, the correlation is very high.
大额充值，也就是我们常见的大额交易的预警，由于市场里充斥的比较多的大额交易预警信息，最早用户是愿意看的，但是随着时间的推移，有许多用户认为大额交易的发生与价格的关系不大，所以现在的大额交易变成了媒体发掘的某种事件素材，比如前几天被炒的沸沸扬扬的85万BTC交易的问题。
Large volumes, the warning of our usual large-scale transactions, have become some sort of event material discovered by the media, such as the 850,000 BTC deals that were fired the previous few days, given that the market was full of relatively large amounts of early warning information and that the first users were willing to see them, but over time many users considered that the occurrence of large-scale transactions had little to do with prices.
我们核心认为，不论是大额充值还是普通充值的量，都是价格的压力，用户的增长才是动力，压力上升，动力不足，价格必然下跌。
At the core, we believe that large and ordinary charges are price pressures, that the growth of users is the driving force, that pressure rises, that power is insufficient, and that prices are bound to fall.
交易所的大额充值中，我们应该剔除掉交易所内部的头寸拨备等动作，给市场以合理有效的数据资讯。
Among the exchange's large replenishments, we should cut off the inside of the exchange's positions, etc., and give the market reasonable and efficient data information.
研究 指标释义
study interpretation of indicators
我们再来看一个有趣的指标，交易所的笔均充值情况，我们做了跟上述相似的处理方法，然后我们发现，交易所的笔均充值情况的移动均线与价格的对数呈现更加明显的负相关【该指标本身与价格的相关系数是-0.4】。
Let's look at an interesting indicator, the exchange's pen full value, and we did a similar treatment, and then we found that the exchange's average pen full value was more clearly negative in relation to the price logarithm [the indicator itself has a price-related coefficient of -0.4].
笔均充值金额的本质其实是参与交易的用户趋向于“大户”还是趋向于“散户”，这个指标越高，参与交易的用户中的大户比例会越高，他们对价格和交易的方式绝不是简单的基于情绪或者信息的买卖。
The essence of the full sum is whether the users of the transaction tend to be “large” or “settled”, and the higher the indicator, the higher the proportion of the users of the transaction will be, and the way in which prices and transactions are made is by no means simply emotional or information-based.
相反的这个指标越低，参与交易的用户中的散户的比例会越高，对价格的增幅越有帮助，但是于此同时，当行情出现反转的时候，散户的恐慌程度会远远大于大户。
In contrast, the lower the indicator, the higher the proportion of slobs among the users involved in the transaction, the more helpful the price increase, but at the same time, when there is a reversal, the panic of the slobs is much greater than that of large households.
估值模型，一些前人的探索
Valuation models, some of the exes' explorations.
链上数据的估值模型应用，区块链数据与价格/价值评估应用的角度来说，从最早的Willy Woo和Chris Burniske提出的NVT模型，到Dmitry Kalichkin基于梅特卡夫定律提出的NVM模型，以及今年初由Clearblocks的研究人员所做的PMR估值模型。
The valuation model application of the chain data ranged from the earliest NVT models presented by Willy Woo and Chris Burniske to the NVM model presented by Dmitry Kalichkin on the basis of Metcalf's law, and the PMR valuation model developed earlier this year by Clearblocks'researchers.
NVT-BTC
2017年2月Willy Woo和Chris Burniske提出了NVT估值模型，试图通过用一个类似市盈率(P/E ratio)的指标去描述加密货币价格与其基本面之间的关系，帮助投资人衡量加密货币的峰值处于泡沫状态还是合理估值的范围。
In February 2017, Willy Woo and Chris Burniske presented a valuation model for NVT, which sought to help investors measure whether the peak of an encrypted currency was in a bubble state or in a reasonable range of valuations by describing the relationship between the price of an encrypted currency and its fundamentals using an indicator similar to that of a market surplus (P/E ratio).
NVT=加密货币网络价值/每日交易量
NVT = value of encrypted currency network/day transactions
“加密货币网络价值”即“流通市值”，由总流通量乘价格构成；
(a) “Classified currency network value”, i.e. “market value in circulation”, consisting of total liquidity multiplied by price;
而对比市盈率来看，由于加密货币和企业不同，它没有盈利，所以就用代表区块链潜在效用的“每日交易量”来体现其业绩指标。在这里需要强调的是，因为发生在交易所的交易大部分属于投机行为，所以NVT中所用的日交易量只考虑链上交易。
In contrast to the market surplus, because the encoded currency and the business are not profitable, performance indicators are reflected in the “daily volume of transactions” that represent the potential utility of the block chain. Here it is important to stress that since most transactions on the exchange are speculative, the daily volume of transactions used in NVT is considered only for chain transactions.
图中指标区域内，中间是合理估值区间，超出合理估值的上下部分分别是高估和低估区域。
The indicator areas in the figure are between reasonable valuation areas, with the upper and lower areas over and above the reasonable valuation being overestimated and undervalued, respectively.
由图可见在13年年末至14年9月份，比特币处于高估区间，对应价格的明显下降；而在15年的10月至16年5月初，比特币则处于相对低估的区间。
By way of illustration, between the end of 13 years and September of 14 years, Bitcoin was in an overvalued area, with a marked decline in the corresponding price, while between October 15 years and early May 16 years, Bitcoin was in a relatively undervalued area.
不足：
Deficiencies:
从图表来看，NVT存在一定的滞后效应，当价格泡沫出现后，往往经过几个月，NVT峰值才会随之出现，使其看起来既不属于预测性指标，也不属于描述性指标。
From the graph, there is a certain lag effect on NVT, and when price bubbles appear, often after a few months, NVT peaks appear to be neither predictive nor descriptive indicators.
NVT-S-BTC
由于NVT有滞后性的不足之处，Cryptolab Capital的首席研究员Dmitry Kalichkin，提出了NVT-S估值模型，旨在优化NVT的滞后性问题。
Due to shortcomings in the lateness of NVT, Dmitry Kalichkin, Chief Researcher at Cryptolab Capital, presented a valuation model for NVT-S aimed at optimizing the lateness of NVT.
NVT-S=加密货币网络价值/90天移动平均的每日交易量
NVT-S = average daily transaction value of encrypted currency network/90-day moving
由图可见13年9月末比特币价格急剧上升时，NVT-S也迅速到达高估区间。14年5月末的价格再次上升时，NVT-S也迅速反映出高估的反馈。
The figure shows that NVT-S quickly reached the overvalued area when Bitcoin prices rose sharply in late September of the year. NVT-S quickly reflected the overvalued feedback when prices rose again in late May of the year.
而在16年1月末到5月区间，NVT-S显示出比特币处于相对低估状态，对应着价格的持续增长。
By the end of January to May of 16 years, NVT-S showed that Bitcoin was in a relatively undervalued position, corresponding to continued price growth.
从结果来看 ，NVT-S更能精准的反应比特币的泡沫，因为90天的移动均线更能反映出长周期的网络价值。
As a result, NVT-S reacts more accurately to bitcoin bubbles, as the 90-day moving mean line more reflects the value of the network over a long period of time.
不足：
Deficiencies:
NVT系列模型只考虑了链上交易的价值，并没有考虑交易笔数或参与交易的地址（钱包）数量，也就是活跃地址数。对于互联网公司，尤其是市场，社交网络和具有强大网络效应的其他业务，类似的每日活跃用户（DAU）指标是最重要的绩效和评估指标之一。
The NVT series model considers only the value of transactions on the chain, and does not take into account the number of transactions or the number of addresses involved in the transaction, i.e., the number of active addresses. For Internet companies, especially markets, social networks, and other businesses with strong network effects, similar daily active user (DAU) indicators are one of the most important performance and assessment indicators.
NVM-BTC
上世纪八十年代，以太网的发明者罗伯特·梅特卡夫提出了可以用于分析互联网网络价值的“梅特卡夫定律”。它认为在一个拥有n个节点的网络中，每个节点与其他用户发生连接的数量可以表示为 n(n - 1)/2，因此得出了网络价值与其用户数量的平方成正比关系的结论。
In the 1980s, the inventor of Ethernet, Robert Metkaf, presented the “Metkaf Law” that could be used to analyse the value of Internet networks. In its view, in a network with n nodes, the number of connections between each node and other users could be expressed as n(n - 1)/2 and it was concluded that the value of the network was squarely correlated with the number of its users.
在Clearblocks团队今年年初发表的一篇研究报告中，详细探讨了不同版本的梅特卡夫定律是如何反映比特币的价格，其中得出了三个最具预测性的模型：
In a study published by the Clearblocks team early this year, the different versions of the Metcalf Law, which reflect the price of Bitcoin, were examined in detail and produced three of the most predictive models:
1、最初的梅特卡夫定律：NV ~ n2
1. The original law of Metcalf: NV ~ n2
2、广义梅特卡夫定律:NV ~ n 1.5
2. Broadly Metcalf Law: NV ~ n 1.5
3、Odlyzko定律:NV ~ n·log n
3-Odlyzko Law: NV ~ n log n
Dmitry Kalichkin选择了使用两个梅特卡夫定律分别作为上下边界，得到一个估计值，以此来构成NVM模型
Dmitry Kalichkin chose to form the NVM model using two Metcalf laws, one for the upper and lower boundary.
NVM=ln（加密货币网络价值/梅特卡夫网络价值）
NVM = In (encrypted monetary network value/metkaf network value)
其中，“加密货币网络价值”即“流通市值”，由总流通量乘价格构成；
Of these, “encrypted currency network value”, i.e. “market value of circulation”, consists of total liquidity multiplied by price;
“梅特卡夫网络价值”由“最初的梅特卡夫定律”和“Odlyzko定律”取均值调参得到。
“Metkaf network value” is obtained by reference to “the original Metkaf law” and “Odlyzko law” for average values.
由图可见，2016年2月，2017年中至2018年中的ETH价格泡沫都成功反映在NVM模型的高估区域内。
As can be seen from the graph, in February 2016, the ETH price bubble was successfully reflected in the NVM overestimated area between mid-2017 and mid-2018.
2015年，16年底的NVM相对低估的区间也成功展示了价格的洼地。
In 2015, the relatively undervalued zone of NVM at the end of 16 was also successful in demonstrating the price base.
我们套用NVM的模型在ETH上时我们发现，ETH自今年2017年8月开始多次触及到高估的上边界，但是大部分时间里都处于“相对合理”的估值区间，也即是红色阴影区域，但是自今年八月开始，ETH遭遇了项目方和基金的集中抛售，大家集中的将手中的ETH兑换成BTC以期保证价值存储，更有甚者直接兑换成了USDT等，这个过程中ETH对BTC的价格创下了不小的跌幅，至最近的一次暴跌，ETH伴随大量的负面情绪，下跌空间巨大。
When we applied the NVM model on ETH, we found that ETH had repeatedly touched the overestimated upper boundary since August 2017, but for most of the time it had been in a “remunerative” valuation zone, or red shadow area, but since August this year ETH had encountered a concentrated sale of the project party and the fund, concentrated on converting the ETH into BTC to secure value storage and, worse still, directly to USDT, during which the prices of the ETH to BTC had fallen significantly, up to a recent collapse, and the ETH, which had been accompanied by a large number of negative emotions and great scope for decline.
但是从估值模型的角度来看，ETH在这个区间里相较于其网络仍在活跃的交易量的角度来说，是存在一定的低估的，只是ETH短期内除了君士坦丁堡和减产以外，在具体的应用层面缺乏有价值的商业应用场景，这使得“预期”严重不足。
However, from the point of view of the valuation model, there is a certain underestimation in this compartment as compared to the volume of transactions in which its network is still active, except for the short-term lack of a valuable business application scenario at specific application levels, except for Constantinople and the reduction in output, which makes “expected” seriously inadequate.
PMR-ETH
Clearblocks的研究人员根据2010年到2018年5月之间的历史数据进行了皮尔森相关系数分析，并选择了效果更好的广义梅特卡夫定律来定义“价格对梅特卡夫比率（Price-to-Metcalfe Ratio）”，即 PMR（Clearblocks）=ln(加密货币价格/30天移动平均的梅特卡夫定律指标)
Clearblocks researchers conducted an analysis of Pearson correlation coefficients based on historical data between 2010 and May 2018, and selected the broader Metcalf law to define “Price-to-Metcalfe Ratio”, or PMR (Clearblocks) = In (encrypted currency prices / 30-day average movement of Metcalf)
其中，“梅特卡夫定律指标”选择了每日活跃地址(DAA)，每日新增地址和交易笔数分别生成，得到的与价格的相关性普遍很高。
Among them, the Metcalf Law Indicator selects a daily active address (DAA), which is generated by the number of new daily addresses and transactional pens, and which is generally highly price-relevant.
图上是基于新增地址的PMR，可见指标在低估和高估区间时，能够反映出价格的洼地和泡沫部分。
The figure is based on the PMR of the new address and shows indicators that reflect the low-lying and foam components of prices when they are underestimated and overestimated.
链上数据价值探索
Search for value of data on the chain
从未有一个资产的一二级市场交易之间的数据像数字资产这样被清晰的记录，且他的数据是相对可信的，这有助于我们对交易形势更清晰的认知，以及对价格波动情况的预判。
There has never been a single asset where data between second-tier market transactions have been recorded as clearly as digital assets, and his data is relatively credible, which helps us to better understand the trading situation and to prejudge price fluctuations.
链上数据直观的反映了价格的压力/动力之间的博弈过程
The intuitiveness of the data on the chain reflects the process of playing between price pressures/dynamics
价格压力与动力
Price pressure and power
价格压力
Price Pressure
在ETH和BTC数据上所反映出来的价格压力没有巨大提升的趋势，ETH的大户抛售压力已经过去，但自十月份以来价格压力指标不时抬头。
Price pressures, as reflected in the ETH and BTC data, have not increased significantly, and the large ETH sales pressure has passed, but price pressure indicators have been rising from time to time since October.
价格动力
Price Dynamics
反映价格动力的指标比如新增用户等则表现的完全疲软，市场力量需要积累，信心需要重新建立
Indicators that reflect price dynamics, such as new users, show complete weakness, market forces need to build up and confidence needs to be re-established
疲软的价格动力伴随不断波动积累的价格压力，带来价格的不断下滑，短期趋势内看不到有明确见底的迹象。
Weak price dynamics, coupled with increasing volatility and accumulated price pressures, have led to declining prices, and there are no clear indications of a bottom-up in short-term trends.
| 结论 | 价格=价值×预期
Price = value × expected
趋势 判断
Trends
- 市场动力不足，压力持续波动
- 存在因门头沟等事件砸穿3000至更低
- 最快2019年一季度末才有可能出现好转
风险|机会 监测
Risk exposure monitoring
- 门头沟风险：13.7万BTC及16万的BCH待处置
- 以太坊减产、君士坦丁堡上线
- 一季度纽交所及纳斯达克上线期货交易
估值 判断
- BTC当前价格处于估值合理区间
- ETH当前价格处于低估区间
“用正确的方法观察数据”
“Observation of data by correct method”
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