从比特币本位到以太坊加密森林：数字货币制度演进及其定价研究白皮书

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货币对于决定历史进程的作用最大。
——卡尔·马克思，《共产党宣言》

- Karl Marx, Summary of the Communist Declaration

本文自上而下建立了数字货币“三阶段”宏观策略研究体系及对应的BTC-COINS-TOKNES多层次货币篮子分析方法并编制了相应指数，同时基于全球央行外汇与黄金储备对BTC、COIN30货币篮子市值上限做了评估、基于采掘成本对BTC价格下限做了评估。

This paper sets up, from the top down, a “three-stage” macro-strategy research system for digital currencies and the corresponding BTC-COINS-TOKNES multi-level monetary basket analysis methodology, with corresponding indices, while assessing the BTC and COIN30 basket market value ceilings based on the global central bank's foreign exchange and gold reserves, and assessing the BTC price floors based on extraction costs.

图0：《从比特币本位到以太坊加密森林》“三阶段”宏观策略研究体系
资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

BTC当前价格7355.9美元，挖矿完全成本7787.6美元，挖矿现金成本1858.4美元；BTC对标央行黄金储备目标价7.5万美元、增加对标民间投资目标价16.4万美元、增加对标艺术品目标价36.9万美元。

BTC currently has a current price of US$ 7355.9 at a total cost of US$ 7787.6 for mining and US$ 1858.4 for mining cash; BTC for the target central bank's gold reserve of US$ 75,000, increasing the target price of for the target private investment of US$ 164,000, and increasing the target price of for the target works of US$ 369 million.

宏观方面：我们建立了由1.比特币、2.COIN30货币篮子及3.TOKEN500/1000通证篮子构成的多层次数字货币分析方法。确立了当前以1.比特币为价值本位之锚、以太坊为流通货币主体、COIN30货币篮子多种数字货币共同发展的2.以太坊加密森林体系阶段，并认为在2020年前后数字货币将完成3.牙买加演进。

Macro: We have established a multilayered approach to digital monetary analysis consisting of 1. Bitcoin, 2. Coin30 baskets and 3. Token500/1000 pass baskets . We have established the current anchor of 1.bitcoins as values 2.

策略方面：我们编制了数字货币综合指数(Crypto Currency Composite Index，CCCI)并结合与COIN30、BTC的超额收益关系进一步构建了数字货币多空指数(Long-Short Index,LSI)。结合NASDAQ2000年泡沫破灭及我国2008、2015年A股二级市场异常波动时期价格比例关系及LSI最新数据，当前市场依然存在下行风险。

strategy: we have developed the and further constructed the digital currency multi-space index (Long-Short Index, LSI) . In conjunction with NASDAQ 2000 and our 2008 and 2015 share ratio relationship with the abnormally volatile second-tier A market and the latest data from LSI, the current market still has downside risks.

目录

Catalogue

正文 1.全球货币寻锚：数字货币新角色

一个人的命运当然要靠自我奋斗，但是也要考虑历史的进程。
——匿名

text 1. Global currency anchoring: The new role of digital currency is a person's destiny, of course, but also a historical process.
- anonymous

1.1比特币：十年完成黄金百年涨幅

1.1 bitcoin: 100-year rise in gold in 10 years

全球货币体系依然缺乏有效锚定物。全球货币体系自1816年金本位、1944年布雷顿森林体系[1]、1971年尼克松宣布美元与黄金脱钩布雷顿森林瓦解再到1976年牙买加体系[2]的百年演进以来，货币一直在锚定与失去锚定间循环往复，当前则处于新一轮寻锚中。

The global monetary system still lacks effective anchors. Since the 1816 gold standard, the 1944 Bretton Woods system[1], the 1971 Nixon declaration of the de-linking of the United States dollar from the gold Bretton Woods, and the 1976 100-year evolution of the Jamaica system[2], the currency has been re-entering the cycle of anchoring and loss of anchors, and is now in a new cycle of anchoring.

全球货币寻锚带来资产价格大幅上涨。无论黄金[3]在不同货币体系内扮演过怎样的角色，当前世界信用货币体系依然缺乏有效锚定物[4]。没锚就要找锚，这一过程也即伴随了资产价格的大幅上涨。数字货币价格暴涨本身也是全球货币寻锚背景下的一个缩影。

’s global currency anchoring has led to a significant increase in asset prices. , whatever the role of gold [3] in different monetary systems, the current world credit currency system still lacks an effective anchor[4]. The process of finding anchors without anchors has been accompanied by a significant increase in asset prices.

图1：全球货币寻锚背景下黄金价格与比特币价格

资料来源：CCCI.IO，World Gold Council，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, World Gold Council, Institute of Subgenerational Economics

货币寻锚即旧“锚”失效寻找新“锚”的循环往复过程，本质是世界经济发展下旧有货币体系逐步不再适应的矛盾过程，布雷顿森林体系也因“特里芬难题[5]”而崩溃。

The cycle of currency anchoring, the failure of the old “lock” to search for a new “lock”, is essentially a paradox of the gradual de-adaptation of the old monetary system in the context of the world's economic development, and the Bretton Woods system has collapsed as a result of the “Treven dilemma” [5].

比特币一步到位完成黄金百年涨幅。相比法币百年演进史，比特币一步到位涨到了当前约7300美元/枚，较2013年公开交易以来涨幅55倍，而黄金在1971年美元宣布与之脱钩以来涨幅约37倍，当前约1300美元/盎司。

has been in place since the 100-year history of French coins. Bitcoin has risen by step to about US$ 7,300 today, 55 times more than since the 2013 open trade, while gold has increased by about 37 times since the 1971 dollar was declared decoupled from it, and now stands at about US$ 1,300/ounce.

如按比特币2009年1月3日创世区块诞生计算，比特币价格不到十年已完成黄金百年涨幅。

In the case of Bitcoin, which was born on 3 January 2009, the price of gold has increased by less than a decade.

图2：全球货币寻锚背景下黄金指数与比特币指数

Figure 2: Gold and Bitcoin in the context of global currency anchoring

资料来源：CCCI.IO，World Gold Council，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, World Gold Council, Institute of Subgenerational Economics

货币寻锚是历史循环往复的必然，信息时代从“连接”走向“共识”也是大势所趋，无论数字货币在全球货币体系内将扮演怎样角色，新旧事物都将轮回。

Currency anchoring is a corollary to the historical cycle, and the information age has also moved from “connection” to “consensus”, and whatever role the digital currency will play in the global monetary system, new and old things will return.

同样，数字货币自身也在寻锚。

Similarly, digital money itself is mooring.

1.2数字货币：十年完成法币百年制度演进

1.2 digital currency: 10 years to complete the 100-year French system

比特币本位(Bitcoin Standard)。比特币自2009年诞生以来已逐步成为特定群体和场景中的一般等价物行使货币职能，其自然形成的货币制度接近19世纪金本位(Gold Standard)，我们称之为比特币本位(Bitcoin Standard)。

bitcoinstandard. bitcoin has, since its inception in 2009, gradually become a general equivalent in particular groups and scenes, with a natural monetary system close to Gold Standard, which we call Bitcoin Standard.

图3：数字货币十年完成法币百年制度演进
资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

以太坊加密森林体系(Crypto Woods System)。随着2014年以太坊(Ethereum)的诞生及2017年首次代币发行(ICO, Initial Coin Offering)的流行，数字货币逐步形成了各种代币(COINS)与以太坊(ETH)挂钩，以太坊与比特币(BTC)挂钩的“ETH-BTC”本位。

Crypto Woods System. , with the birth of Etherum in 2014 and the introduction of the first indentation (ICO, Initial Coin Offering) in 2017, digital currencies have evolved into .

类似布雷顿森林体系的美元与黄金挂钩、各国货币与美元挂钩的“美元-黄金”双挂钩本位，我们称之为以太坊加密森林体系(Crypto WoodsSystem)。

The Bretton Woods-like dollar-to-gold-to-gold-to-dollar-to-dollar-to-dollar-like “United States dollar-to-gold” system, we call it Crypto WoodsSystem.

数字货币虽拥有类似布雷顿森林的汇兑结构，但事实上为有管理的浮动汇率制度而非固定汇率制度，由于缺乏有效监管，严格上是有“市值管理”的浮动汇率制度。

While digital currencies have a Bretton Woods-like exchange structure, they are in fact managed floating exchange-rate regimes rather than fixed-exchange-rate regimes, with a strict “market value management” floating exchange-rate regime in the absence of effective regulation.

数字货币牙买加演进 (Crypto Jamaica Evolution)。随着大量区块链项目诞生及对应的ICO发行，区块链经济体[6](Block Chain Entity)和数字货币供给(Coin Supply)均呈爆发增长，由于链际收支[7](InterChain Balance of Payment)均衡的需要，我们认为数字货币将从加密森林体系(Crypto Woods System)进一步向数字货币牙买加(CryptoJamaica)演进并伴随激烈的市场出清。

, with the birth of a large number of block chain projects and the corresponding ICO distribution, saw an outbreak of growth in the block chain economy [6] and the digital money supply (Coin Supply) and, due to the need for balance of inter-chain payments and payments [7], we believe that the digital currency will move further from Crypto Woods System to the digital currency Jamaica, accompanied by intense market clearing.

这一过程将伴随1.比特币非货币化、2.多样化汇率制度与数字货币储备体系、3.链际收支调节机制多样化等制度安排。

This process will be accompanied by institutional arrangements such as 1.

图4：数字货币制度演进的叠加态

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

数字货币制度演进的叠加态。数字货币诞生于全球货币体系、资本市场乃至信息化的成熟时期，实际路径为上述三阶段叠加并存演化，当前核心处于第二阶段。相比法币百年演进史，数字货币十年间便自然形成了类似制度形式。预计在2020年前后将进一步完成牙买加演进。

The digital currency of is born in a mature era of global monetary systems, capital markets, and even informationization, and is now at its second stage with the three stages of convergence. The digital currency naturally forms a similar system over a decade, compared to the 100-year history of French currency. is expected to complete Jamaica further before and after 2020.

图5：数字货币与法定货币均在寻锚
资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

1.3研究体系：BTC-COINS-TOKNES

1.3 research system: BTC-COINS-TOKNES

参照牙买加演进(Crypto Jamaica Evolution)终局。我们将数字货币分为：

refers to the final results of Jamaica's Evolution (Crypto Jamaica Evolution) . We divide the digital currency into:

1.数字贵金属(BTC)、2.数字通货(COINS)与3.数字通证(TOKENS)三个层次。数字贵金属仅选择比特币，因此该类别即代表比特币。

1. Digital precious metals (BTC), 2. Digital currency (COINS) and 3. Digital hyphenate (TOKENS) levels. Digital precious metals only select bitcoins, so this category represents bitcoins.

由于数字货币仍在寻锚，相应行业、币种逻辑与基本面均可能发生重大变化，我们暂不严格从单个数字货币功能属性本身分类，而着重考虑市值、流动性、影响力等金融市场发展早期指标对数字货币进行分层。

As digital currencies are still moored, and the corresponding industries, currency logic and fundamentals may change significantly, we will not group them strictly from the individual digital currency functional attributes themselves, , but will focus on tiered digital currencies with early indicators of market value, liquidity, influence and other financial market developments.

图6：数字货币分层：BTC-COINS-TOKENS
资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

我们将全球存在公开交易的约1600种数字货币分为：

We divide about 1,600 digital currencies with open transactions around the world into:

1.BTC、2.COIN30[8]、3.TOKEN500/1000三大类货币篮子。挑选全球市值较大、流动性较好的30种公链数字货币及行业平台数字货币构成COIN30货币篮子。除去BTC、COIN30货币篮子之外的1500余种数字货币，归类为TOKEN500和TOKEN1000货币篮子。

1. BTC, 2.COIN30[8], 3.Token500/1000 currency baskets. The selection of 30 public-chain digital currencies with higher market value and better liquidity and industry platforms constitutes the COIN30 currency basket. More than 1,500 digital currencies, excluding the BTC, COIN30 basket, are classified as Token500 and TOKEEN 1000 baskets.

2017年5月以太坊为核心的COIN30货币篮子市值占比首次超过比特币标志着数字货币正式从比特币本位(Bitcoin Standard)进入以太坊加密森林体系(Crypto Woods System)阶段。

The market value of COIN30 basket of currency in May 2017 exceeded bitcoin for the first time, marking the official entry of digital currency from bitcoinstaddard into Crypto Woods System phase .

随着全球资产通证化(Tokenization)进程加速，预计在2020年前后TOKEN500/1000通证篮子市值占比将进一步超过COIN30货币篮子，届时数字货币也将完成牙买加演进(Crypto JamaicaEvolution)。

As the process of global asset transposition accelerates, it is expected that the market value ratio of the Token500/1000 pass basket will surpass the COIN30 currency basket further around 2020 and that the digital currency will also complete the .

图7：BTC-COINS-TOKENS市值比率与制度演进

Figure 7: BTC-COINS-TOKENS Market Value Ratio and System Evolution

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

当前比特币占全球数字货币市值比重约37%并呈不断下降趋势，COIN30占比约51%并呈不断上升趋势，TOKEN500占比约12%，而余下1000余种数字货币构成的TOKEN1000市值占比不到1%。

Bitcoin currently accounts for about 37 per cent of the global market value of digital currencies and is on a declining trend, with COIN 30 accounting for about 51 per cent and a rising trend, with TOKEN 500 accounting for about 12 per cent, while the remaining stock of over 1,000 digital currencies accounts for less than 1 per cent of the market value of TOKEN 1000.

图8：BTC-COIN30-TOKEN500/1000市值分布

Figure 8: Market value distribution of BTC-COIN30-TOKEEN 500/1000

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

这也体现出牙买加演进的重要特征：1.黄金(比特币)非货币化：比特币将逐步成为共识社区价值准备金而非流通货币；2.多样化汇率制度与国际储备体系：数十种数字货币激烈竞争外汇储备地位并占市值绝大部分，头部效应明显；3.国(链)际收支调节机制多样化将在数字货币社区自治体系完善后逐步实现。

also reflects important features of Jamaica's evolution 1. Non-monetization of gold (bitcoin) : Bitcoin will gradually become a reserve for consensus community values rather than a currency in circulation; 2. Diversity exchange rate system and international reserve system: 3. Diversification of inter-country revenue and expenditure reconciliation mechanisms will be progressively achieved once the system of self-government of digital monetary communities is perfected.

本文将着重自上而下对BTC和COIN30货币篮子展开分析，TOKEN500/1000货币篮子则需建立自下而上的研究体系，我们将在后续推出。

This paper will focus on top-down analysis of the BTC and COIN30 baskets, while the TOKEN 500/1000 baskets will need to be developed for bottom-up research, and we will be launching them.

2.比特币本位：数字货币之锚

算力即权力

2. Bitcoin local: the anchor of the digital currency arithmetic is power

数字货币尙未出现完善的存贷款业务及信用扩张机制，不能单纯用经济体量与货币供给关系如M2/GDP及通胀目标进行估值。而需结合货币及资产属性多维度估值。

Digital currencies do not have well-developed lending operations and credit expansion mechanisms, and cannot be valued solely on the basis of the economy’s volume-to-money relationship, such as M2/GDP and inflation targets. Instead, they need to be combined with multi-dimensional valuations of money and asset attributes.

比特币价格一阶段目标价7.5万美元，一阶段低点0.78万美元。对标当前全球央行黄金储备1.6万亿美元，当前比特币储备估值一阶段目标价7.5万美元/枚；根据当前比特币全网算力30.8EH/s，比特币挖矿完全成本7787.6美元为比特币一阶段价格低点。比特币当前价格7355.9美元，已跌破一阶段价格低点。

图9：比特币一阶目标价7.5万美元，一阶下限0.78万美元

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

同时结合后文成本分析，初步估算比特币名义价格三阶段上下限如下：

In conjunction with the post-cost analysis, the initial estimate of the nominal price of Bitcoin in three stages and below is as follows:

表1：比特币三阶段估值上限与估值下限(市值：十亿美元，价格：美元)

Table 1: Bitcoin three-phase valuation cap and lower valuation limit (market value: billions of United States dollars, prices: United States dollars)

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

2.1比特币储备：黄金储备与名义价格上限

2.1 bitcoin reserve: gold reserve and nominal price ceiling

比特币不像黄金具备工业和消费用途，若完成牙买加演进比特币将进一步非货币化专司区块链社区价值储备用于官方储备和民间投资。亦不排除未来比特币成为艺术品和消费品。

Bitcoin, unlike gold for industrial and consumer use, would be further de-monetized as a community value reserve for official reserves and private investment if Jamaica were to evolve into bitcoin. Nor would it be excluded that bitcoin would become a work of art and consumer goods in the future.

黄金则有四大类用途，过去十年四类需求平均占比为：1.中国与印度珠宝用途占比51%、2.民间投资用金条、金币及ETF等占比30%、3.央行官方储备占比11%、4.电子与牙科等工业用途占比8%。全球黄金供给则69%来自挖矿，31%来自回收。注：这里的需求流量比例与下文存量市值比例并不相同。

For gold, there are four main types of use, with four categories of demand having averaged over the past decade: 1. The proportion of Chinese and Indian jewellery uses is 51 per cent, 2. Private investment in gold bars, gold coins and ETFs account for 30 per cent, 3. Central Bank official reserves account for 11 per cent, 4. Global gold supply is 69 per cent from mining and 31 per cent from recycling. notes that the proportion of demand flows here is not the same as the market value of stocks below.

图10：全球黄金需求分布：官方储备占比11%

Figure 10: Global distribution of gold demand: official reserves as a percentage of 11 per cent

资料来源：CCCI.IO，World GoldCouncil，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, World GoldCouncil, Institute of Subgenerational Economics

图11：全球黄金供给分布：挖矿占比69%

Figure 11: Global distribution of gold supply: 69 per cent excavated

资料来源：CCCI.IO，World GoldCouncil，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, World GoldCouncil, Institute of Subgenerational Economics

比特币市值对标大多参照全球黄金储量，我们认为更可靠的做法为参照全球央行黄金储备作一阶段对标；参照黄金储备+民间投资作二阶段对标；第三阶段对标黄金储备+民间投资+珠宝首饰，届时比特币可能成为艺术品或消费品。

The market value of Bitcoin is mostly based on global gold reserves, and we believe that it would be more reliable to use the global central bank gold reserve as a one-stage match ; the gold reserve + private investment as a second phase ; and the target gold reserve + private investment + jewellery in the third phase , when Bitcoin could become an art or consumer.

图12：2018Q1全球央行黄金储备量3.4万吨

Figure 12: 2018Q1 Global Central Bank gold reserves of 34,000 tons

资料来源：CCCI.IO，IMF，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, IMF, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

图13：2018Q1全球央行黄金储备市值1.6万亿美元

Figure 13: 2018Q1 Global Central Bank gold reserves market value of $1.6 trillion

资料来源：CCCI.IO，IMF，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, IMF, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

截至2018Q1，全球央行黄金储备3.4万吨(11.9亿盎司)，市值1.6万亿美元；我们估算全球民间投资金条、金币及ETF等存量市值1.9万亿美元、全球黄金珠宝首饰存量市值4.3万亿美元；合计全球黄金存量市值7.7万亿美元。

As of 2018Q1, the global central bank had a gold reserve of 3.4 million tons (1.19 billion ounces) at a market value of $1.6 trillion; we estimated the global private investment stock of gold bars, gold coins and ETFs at a market value of $1.9 trillion; the global stock of gold jewellery at $4.3 trillion; and the combined global stock of gold at a market value of $7.7 trillion.

对应央行黄金储备1.6万亿美元，比特币一阶段目标价7.5万美元；对应央行黄金储备+民间投资3.4万亿美元，二阶段目标价16.4万美元；对应央行黄金储备+民间投资+珠宝首饰7.7万亿美元，三阶段目标价36.9万美元。

US$ 1.6 trillion for central bank gold reserves, US$ 75,000 for Bitcoin one phase; US$ 3.4 trillion for central bank gold reserves + private investment, US$ 164,000 for phase II ; US$ 7.7 trillion for central bank gold reserves + private investment + jewellery, US$ 369 million for three phases .

2.2比特币采掘业：采掘成本与名义价格下限

2.2 bitcoin extractive industries: extractive costs and nominal price floor

比特币价格的成本支撑。历史上比特币矿价跌至挖矿完全成本线便见底反弹。理论上价格跌破完全成本但仍在现金成本之上矿场仍会开工以摊销固定资产折旧，但比特币尚未出现矿价持续跌破完全成本的情形[9]。

The price of bitcoin supports the cost of the price. The price of has historically fallen to the full cost line of mining.

我们将比特币社群共识溢价[10]、挖矿完全成本、挖矿现金成本分别作为三阶段价格支撑。截至2018年5月26日收盘价7355.9美元，比特币挖矿完全成本7787.6美元、现金成本1858.4美元，比特币已连续三天跌破挖矿完全成本。

we support three-stage prices with a consensus premium for the Bitcoin community [10], the full cost of mining, and the cash cost of mining, respectively. collects $735.9 as of 26 May 2018, Bitcoin digs at a full cost of $7787.6, cash at a cost of $1858.4 and Bitcoin has fallen at a full cost for three days in a row.

图14：挖矿完全成本曲线为比特币价格支撑

Figure 14: Full cost curve of mining supported by bitcoin prices

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

比特币挖矿类似抢红包，设备越强成功率越高。为了增加“抢红包”成功率，矿工往往集中矿机组成矿池协同挖矿以增加算力，并按矿工投入算力比例进行收益分配。矿机及算力用于区块链网络运行。

In order to increase the success rate of , miners tend to concentrate their pits on co-mining to increase their capacity and distribute the proceeds in proportion to their input capacity.

图15：AntPool矿池出块情况

Figure 15: Blocks from AntPool

资料来源：BTC.COM，次世代经济研究所

Source: BTC.COM, Institute of Subgenerational Economics

矿池导致区块链网络中心化。矿池集中零散矿工算力导致区块链网络呈中心化趋势，当前BTC.COM、AntPool、BTC.TOP矿池占比特币全网算力前三，份额分别为22.58%、17.85%、10.75%。当一致行动人算力达51%时便可发起“51%算力攻击”篡改区块链网络。

ponds lead to the centralization of block-chain networks. pit concentration of fragmented miners leads to the centralization of block-chain networks. The BTC.COM, AntPool, BTC.TOP ponds now account for the third highest proportion of the entire Bitcoin network, with a share of 22.58%, 17.85%, 10.75%, respectively.

图16：比特币当前全网算力前三矿池份额已达51%

Figure 16: Bitcoin's share of the three prenetic ponds now stands at 51%

资料来源：BTC.COM，次世代经济研究所

Source: BTC.COM, Institute of Subgenerational Economics

图17：比特币当前全网算力31EH/S，旬增长4%

Figure 17: Bitcoin's current net full capacity 31EH/S, 4% increase in half

资料来源：BTC.COM，次世代经济研究所

Source: BTC.COM, Institute of Subgenerational Economics

算力用单位时间哈希计算量表示，挖矿难度与全网算力成正比。截至UTC:2018-05-24 21:20:53、区块高度524,160，比特币全网算力30.8EH/S，较上旬环比增长4.0%，对应挖矿难度4.3T，对应消耗约4万度电挖出一个比特币，按电费0.3元计算（下同），电力成本约11869元人民币/BTC。

calculates the difficulty of mining by a unit time Hashi. as at UTC: 2018-05-24:21:20:53 at an altitude of 524,160, Bitcoin total network capacity of 30.8 EH/S, an increase of 4.0 per cent over the upper part of the ring, the difficulty of mining 4.3 T, corresponding to the consumption of about 40,000 degrees of electricity to excavate a bitcoin, at an electricity cost of 0.3 yuan (the same amount) and the electricity cost of approximately RMB 11869/BTC.

表2：比特币全网算力与出块情况

Table 2: Bitcoin full-network computing and output

资料来源：BTC.COM，次世代经济研究所

Source: BTC.COM, Institute of Subgenerational Economics

当前比特币价格7355.9美元，挖矿利润率跌至-5.87%，毛利率仍达74.74%。根据矿机算力与功率的关系及全网挖矿难度，当前挖出单个比特币耗电约39563.0度，电力成本约1858.4美元，占比特币价格的22.6%；矿机折旧成本约5929.2美元(2-3年折旧)，占比特币价格72.1%。

At the current Bitcoin price of $735.5.9, the profit margin for mining fell to 5.87 per cent, and the Māori rate remained at 74.74 per cent. , based on the relationship between miner computing and power and the difficulty of digging across the net, currently excavated individual bitcoins at about 39563.0 degrees, while electricity costs were about $1858.4 or 22.6 per cent of the Bitcoin price; and the depreciation cost of miners at approximately $5929.2 (2-3 depreciation) or 72.1 per cent of the Bitcoin price.

当前比特币挖矿利润-431.8美元/BTC。比特币挖矿毛利5497.5美元，毛利率为74.7%，较上旬下降4.0%，同比下降15.0%；挖矿利润-431.8美元，利润率-5.87%，利润率相比上旬下降16.6%，相比去年同期下降62.8%。

currently profits from bitcoin mining $431.8/BTC. has a Māori mining rate of $5497.5 and a Māori rate of 74.7 per cent, a decrease of 4.0 per cent compared to the previous half, a decrease of 15.0 per cent compared to the previous half; mining profits of $431.8, a profit margin of 5.87 per cent, a decrease of 16.6 per cent compared to the previous half, a decrease of 62.8 per cent compared to the same period last year.

市场较好时比特币挖矿存在巨大超额收益并导致新增算力不断涌入。比特币全网算力平均以5-10%的旬度环比增长。

The market is better when bitcoin digs with huge excess revenues and leads to an influx of new and additional arithmetic. bitcoin's all-net capacity grew by an average of 5-10% of the quintane ring.

同时可以看到，比特币矿机成本占据了挖矿完全成分的绝大部分。矿机生产商(进而芯片制造商)才是真正的上游并获取了可观的矿产利润。

At the same time, it can be seen that bitcoin costs account for the vast majority of the total composition of the mine. miner manufacturers (and thus chip manufacturers) are really upstream and capture significant mineral profits.

图18：比特币当前价格电力成本占比23%，矿机折旧占比72%

Figure 18: Bitcoin's current cost of electricity at 23 per cent and miner's depreciation at 72 per cent

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

图19：比特币当前矿价已跌破挖矿完全成本线

Figure 19: Bitcoin's current mine prices have fallen through the full cost line of mining

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

图20：比特币当前挖矿毛利率、利润率分别为75%、-6%

Figure 20: Bitcoin's current Māori and profit margins are 75 per cent and -6 per cent, respectively

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

表3：比特币全网算力与挖矿成本分布

Table 3: Distribution of fully networked Bitcoins and mining costs

资料来源：BTC.COM，CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: BTC.COM, CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economics

表4：比特币挖矿毛利与挖矿利润

Table 4: Bitcoin mining Māori and mining profits

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

2.3数字货币采掘业：看似上游实则中游

2.3 Digital Monetary Extractive Industries: Looks like upstream

比特币挖矿形式上为典型上游采掘业：1.储量相对固定；2.矿产资源(算力资源)寡头垄断；3.矿产作为原材料直接出售；4.毛利显著受矿价影响、矿价显著受流动性(货币供给)影响。煤炭采掘业和有色金属采掘业均包含该四个特征。

Bitcoin mining takes the form of typical upstream extractive industries: 1. Reserves are relatively fixed; 2. Oligopolies of mineral resources (accountable resources); 3. Minerals are sold directly as raw materials; 4. Māori are significantly affected by mineral prices and mine prices are significantly affected by liquidity (money supply). Both coal and non-ferrous metals extractive industries contain these four characteristics.

但比特币采掘业(数字货币采掘业)还有另一特征：开采成本和价格相互内生，开采成本随市场波动并存杠杆放大效应。这是典型中游制造业特点。

But there is another feature of the Bitcoin extractive industry (the digital money extractive industry): the cost and price of mining are inherent to each other, and the cost of mining expands with market fluctuations. is typical of middle- and middle-sized manufacturing.

图21：数字货币产业链上中下游
资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

真正上游是矿机制造业，比特币挖矿完全成本80%被矿机折旧费占据。算力才是真正的原矿，同时原矿品味随挖矿难度增加不断下降，挖矿则更像对原矿进行富集加工的选矿过程。

The real upstream of is the miner manufacturing industry, where 80% of the full cost of bitcoin mining is taken up by the miner's depreciation fee. Arithmetic is the real primary mine, while the taste of the original mine is declining with the difficulty of digging, which is more like the process of selecting the mine for enrichment.

图22：比特币原矿(算力)品味下降速度惊人

Figure 22: Bitcoin primary (calculus) taste declines at an alarming rate

资料来源：BTC.COM，CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: BTC.COM, CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economics

图23：比特币挖矿成本矿机折旧占比近80%

Figure 23: Depreciation of miners for bitcoin mining costs by nearly 80 per cent

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

比特币采掘业本质为中游制造业，存在毛利杠杆效应。比特币开采成本由全网算力进而矿价决定并反过来影响价格。这使得比特币价格上涨时会带动挖矿成本上涨、下跌时会带动挖矿成本下跌，并因算力刚性带来毛利杠杆效应。

The price of bitco’s extraction costs are determined by the full net and, in turn, by the price of the mine. This increases the price of bitco’s mining costs, reduces the cost of mining when it falls, and creates a Maori leverage because of arithmetic.

比特币毛利杠杆(BTC Gross Profit Leverage)：比特币因算力周期滞后价格周期带来的采掘毛利在矿价上涨时加速扩大在矿价下跌时加速收缩的现象。

图24：比特币采掘业毛利杠杆(BTCGross Profit Leverage)
资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

算力周期效应类似中游加工制造业原材料库存周期效应，比如黑色金属冶炼与压延加工业：

Arithmetic cyclical effects are similar to those of raw materials in manufacturing processes in the middle, such as the ferrous metal smelting and pressurization industry:

图25：黑色金属冶炼与压延加工业毛利杠杆(Iron&SteelGross Profit Leverage)
资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

注：毛利杠杆: 因成本滞后(原材料库存周期、算力周期)于价格而带来的毛利撬动效应。

note: Māori Leveraging: The Māori Leveraging Effect on Prices due to Cost Deficit (Stowstock Cycle, Arithmetical Cycle).

上游集中的中游行业：如钢铁(上游铁矿石集中)、造纸(上游纸浆集中)，其盈利能力变化趋势，不仅需关注吨毛利变化，更需关注毛利杠杆变化。毛利杠杆比吨毛利更重要。

is a concentrated metro sector: , i.e. steel (upstream concentration of iron ore), paper (upstream concentration of pulp), where trends in profitability have to focus not only on changes in ton Maori, but more on changes in Maori leverage. Maori leverage is more important than tons of ton.

一般情况下：

General:

1.价格上涨时由于成本尚滞后而带来比当期成本下毛利的更大的扩张效应；

1. Higher prices, due to the lag in costs, have a greater expansionary effect than Māori at current costs;

2.价格下跌时，毛利收缩也会被放大；

2. Māori contractions are also magnified when prices fall;

3.第三种情况：本期产成品价格上涨，但前期矿价上涨更快，本期毛利收缩；本期产成品价格下跌，但前期矿价跌幅大于本期，本期毛利依然扩张。

3. Third is the increase in the price of finished products in the current period, but the increase in the price of prior-period minerals has been faster and the current period has seen a contraction in Maori; while the price of finished products has fallen in the current period, the fall in the price of prior-period minerals has been greater than in the current period, and Maori has continued to expand in the current period.

毛利杠杆对价格乃至资本市场往往有显著前瞻性，比特币价格实际理论低点需进一步用毛利杠杆给出，我们将在后续推出。

Māori leverage tends to be significantly forward-looking to prices and even to capital markets, and the actual low point in Bitcoin price theory needs to be given further Māori leverage, which we will be following.

图26：毛利杠杆在资本市场的应用

Figure 26: Māori leverage in capital markets

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

3.以太坊加密森林：增长与再平衡

货币研究比其他任何经济学领域的研究都更加善于运用其复杂性，进而逃避真相，而非揭露真相。创造货币的过程简单到令人厌恶，因此唯有保持其神秘，才会体面。
——加尔布雷斯

3.
> - Garbrèse
>/blockquate > monetary research is better at applying its complexity than any other field of economics, thus avoiding truth than revealing it. The process of creating money is so simple and disgusting that it is only decent to keep it secret.
> > > >

3.1双挂钩体系：以太坊大幅升值

3.1 two-way system: significant appreciation with Tai Fan

以太坊汇率大幅波动后保持稳定。2015年以太坊汇率大幅波动，2016年以太坊完成一步到位的升值调整，2017年以太坊ERC20协议开启ICO浪潮后进一步大幅升值并奠定主流数字通货地位。

has remained stable after significant exchange rate fluctuations in . has experienced significant exchange rate fluctuations in 2015 and completed a step-by-step appreciation adjustment in 2016. > > has increased significantly after the launch of the ICO wave in 2017 and has established a mainstream digital liquidity position.

同年5月COIN30货币篮子市值占比首次超过比特币，标志了数字货币正式进入“COINS-ETH-BTC”以太坊加密森林时代。

In May of the same year, for the first time, the market value of the COIN30 basket exceeded Bitcoin, marking the official entry of digital currencies into the era of “COINS-ETH-BTC” encryption forests.

图27：“COINS-ETH-BTC”双挂钩体系已稳定运行

Figure 27: “COINS-ETH-BTC” dual-link system has been stabilized

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

2016年初购买1个BTC和1单位COIN30[11]货币篮子分别需458.14和4.5个ETH，当前仅需12.5和0.55个。

The purchase of one BTC and one COIN30 [11] currency basket at the beginning of 2016 required 458.14 and 4.5 ETH, respectively, and currently only 12.5 and 0.55.

ETH作为基准通货的特征开始显现。ETH兑BTC汇率较COIN30则更加稳定，BTC作为基准储备的特征也越发明显。

The characteristics of ETH as a base currency are beginning to appear. The exchange rate between ETH and BTC is more stable than that of COIN30, and the characteristics of BTC as a base reserve are becoming more apparent.

表5：以太坊币币购买力逐步提升

Table 5: Gradual increase in purchasing power in Tails

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

COIN30货币篮子ETH价格在相对锚定下较BTC存在更大波动并获得超额收益，原因在于众多COIN30成分币尚在竞争后续数字通货地位。

The COIN30 basket of currency ETH prices are more volatile and yielding excess gains than BTC under relative anchoring because many of the COIN30 component currencies are still competing for follow-on digital traffic status.

除美元外国际主要自由流通法币还有欧元、英镑、瑞郎、加元、澳元、日元、港元、新西兰元等。数字货币也将由COIN30成分币行使核心通货职能。

In addition to the United States dollar, the world’s main free-flow French currency includes the euro, the pound sterling, the Swiss franc, the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Hong Kong dollar, and the New Zealand dollar.

图28：COIN30波动大于BTC，数字通货仍在竞争

Figure 28: COIN30 is more volatile than BTC and digital currency continues to compete

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

综合来看，数字货币已形成以比特币为储备、以太坊为核心、多种主流数字通货为基础计价货币的加密森林体系，而数量更加众多的证券类TOKEN通证篮子则基于以太坊和主流数字通货构成的COIN30进行计价。

Taken together, digital currencies have evolved into an encrypted forest system of currency denominated on the basis of Bitcoin as a reserve, on the basis of a variety of mainstream digital fluxes, while a larger Token security basket is based on COIN30, which is made up of taupulega and mainstream digital traffic.

图29：以太坊加密森林体系(CryptoWoods System)

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

3.2进一步演进：货币篮子再平衡

3.2 Further evolution: currency basket rebalancing

当前以太坊与广场协议间美元汇率特征类似。80年代初美元大幅升值并造成巨额贸易逆差(事实上以太坊社区也已实现链际收支逆差)。

The dollar exchange rate of increased sharply in the early 1980s, resulting in a large trade deficit (in fact, the `Eta' community has also achieved an inter-linkages deficit).

为了汇率再平衡，1985年9月22日G5成员国在纽约广场饭店举行会议并达成一致联合干预外汇市场，诱导各国货币兑美元有序升值，史称广场协议。其中德国马克、日元大幅升值，美元汇率开始稳定。

In order to rebalance the exchange rate, G5 member countries met at the New York Plaza Hotel on 22 September 1985 and agreed to jointly intervene in the foreign exchange market to induce an orderly appreciation of national currencies against the United States dollar, the historic square agreement.

该过程一直持续到千禧年后亚洲新兴国家开启出口战略，世界经济格局被快速重构，美元因此进入十年贬值期并开启十年黄金价格牛市。

The process continued until the start of the export strategy in the emerging Asian countries after the millennium, and the world economic landscape was rapidly reconfigured, bringing the United States dollar into a decade of depreciation and the opening of a decade of gold-priced cattle.

图30：以太坊币值保持稳定，等待下一次重构

Figure 30: The value of the tatai currency remains stable pending the next re-engineering

资料来源：CCCI.IO，World GoldCouncil，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, World GoldCouncil, Institute of Subgenerational Economics

当前EOS等新兴数字货币兴起并对ETH显著升值对数字货币亦起到了汇率再平衡作用。

The current emergence of emerging digital currencies, such as EOS, and the marked appreciation of the ETH have also rebalanced the exchange rate for digital currencies.

同时相比ETH的升值，剔除ETH的COIN30货币篮子兑比特币整体亦在有序升值，COIN30货币篮子汇率实现了整体再平衡。

At the same time, the COIN 30 basket, which excluded the ETH, is experiencing an orderly appreciation against the bitcoin as a whole, and the COIN30 basket has achieved an overall rebalancing of the exchange rate.

图31：EOS对ETH汇率的再平衡

Figure 31 EOS rebalancing of ETH exchange rates

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

图32：COIN30兑BTC汇率整体依然有序升值

Figure 32: COIN30 to BTC as a whole continues to appreciate in an orderly manner

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

汇率再平衡过程需相应货币政策配合以实现三元悖论[12]下经济内外均衡目标。广场协议后德国马克及日元均较大程度升值，但经济后果却大相径庭。

The exchange-rate rebalancing process needs to be accompanied by monetary policy in order to achieve the goal of economic and external balance under the Trinity paradox [12]. Both the German mark and the Japanese yen appreciated considerably after the square agreement, but the economic consequences varied widely.

由于数字货币社区化货币政策等相关制度建设尚不成熟，这里暂不进一步探讨有关数字货币社区化货币政策的相关内容。

will not explore further the relevant elements of monetary policy related to digital monetary commodification, given that related institutions, such as digital monetary policy, are not yet mature.

图33：开放经济体内外均衡三元悖论

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

图34：加密视角与法定视角货币政策与经济关系

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

3.3下一次重构：加密森林名义市值上限

3.3 Next re-engineering: nominal market value cap for encrypted forests

以太坊币值虽保持稳定，但由于供给增长有限，难以符合加密世界经济增长的长期要求。即便在币币汇率中其通缩倾向大于通胀，经济发展则要求货币通胀发行以适应并刺激经济增长。COIN30货币篮子市值的增长某种程度上满足了货币供给需求。

Even if the currency’s currency exchange rate is more deflationary than inflation, economic development requires monetary inflation to adjust to and stimulate economic growth. The growth in the market value of the basket of currency COIN30 meets, to some extent, the demand for money supply.

另一方面，TOKEN篮子基于COIN30计价，相关业务乃至加密经济体直接使用自身TOKEN作为货币亦缓解了对COIN30货币供给的需求。

On the other hand, the Token basket is based on COIN30, and the direct use of its own TOKEN as a currency by the relevant business and even the encryption economy eases the demand for COIN30 currency supply.

图35：BTC、COIN30市值占比90%，TOKEN篮子占比10%

Figure 35: 90 per cent market value of BTC, COIN30 and 10 per cent of Token basket

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

当前TOKEN篮子市值占数字货币总市值仅10%，未来TOKEN篮子货币供给增长将随全球资本市场资产通证化Tokenization进程逐步提高，届时数字货币也将迎来下一次重构：TOKEN篮子市值占比将超过COIN30篮子成为加密资产最大组成部分，数字货币也将进入牙买加时代。

The current market value of the Token basket represents only 10 per cent of the total value of the digital currency, and the future growth of the Token basket's money supply will gradually increase as the global capital market assets pass through the Tokenization process. The digital currency will also be recast for the next time: the market value share of the Token basket will be greater than the COIN30 basket as the largest component of the encrypted asset, and the digital currency will enter Jamaica's age.

类似比特币与黄金储备的阶段对标，我们进一步将COIN30货币篮子市值与全球央行官方外汇储备进行对标。

A phase similar to that of bitcoin and gold reserves, we further match the market value of the CoIN30 basket with the official foreign exchange reserves of the Global Central Bank.

当前全球央行官方储备(黄金储备与外汇储备)黄金准备率约10%。当前全球数字货币比特币准备率约40%，而在2017年之前这一比率高达90%。我们预计该比率未来将进一步下降至10%左右。

The global central bank’s official reserves (gold reserves and foreign exchange reserves) are now about 10 per cent of gold reserves. The current global digital currency is about 40 per cent of bitcoin reserves, up to 90 per cent by 2017. We expect the ratio to fall further to about 10 per cent in the future.

图36：全球央行储备市值16万亿，黄金准备率10%

Figure 36: Global Central Bank reserve market value of 16 trillion and gold readiness rate of 10 per cent

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

图37：全球数币市值0.3万亿，比特币准备率40%

Figure 37: Global value of several currencies at $3 trillion, with 40 per cent Bitcoin readiness

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

截至2018年5月26日，比特币市值[13]1254.6亿美元，较全球央行黄金储备市值1.6万亿美元占比8.0%，若对标同等体量，比特币预期涨幅12.5倍。

As at 26 May 2018, the market value of Bitcoin was [13] $12,546 million, compared with the market value of the global central bank's gold reserves of $1.6 trillion, or 8.0 per cent, with an expected 12.5-fold increase in bitcoin in the same volume.

COIN30货币篮子当前1634.1亿美元，较全球官方外汇储备市值13.4万亿美元占比1.2%，若对标同等体量，COIN30市值预期涨幅82.2倍。

The current basket of COIN 30 currencies stands at $16.41 billion, representing 1.2 per cent of the global official foreign exchange reserve market of $13.4 trillion, and the market value of COIN 30 is expected to increase by 82.2 times if it is the same size.

表6：BTC、COIN30市值预期涨幅倍数12.5倍、82.2倍（市值：十亿美元）

Table 6: BTC, COIN30 expected a multiplier increase of 12.5 times and 82.2 times (market value: billions of United States dollars)

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

图38：BTC、COIN30市场容量占比仅8.0%、1.2%

Figure 38: BTC, COIN30 market capacity ratio 8.0%, 1.2%

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

图39：BTC、COIN30市值预期涨幅13倍、82倍

Figure 39: The market value of BTC, COIN30 is expected to increase 13 times, 82 times

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

综合来看，宏观尺度的市场容量测算下比特币、尤其是COIN30市值成长空间依然较大。

Overall, market capacity at the macro scale continues to measure the market value growth space for Bitcoin, especially COIN30.

中观来看我们需对相关数字货币及货币篮子的市场表现作进一步评估并就相关对冲策略作进一步探讨，同时编制数字货币指数。

In the medium view, we need to further assess the market performance of the relevant digital currency and basket of currencies and explore the relevant hedging strategies, as well as to produce a digital monetary index.

4.数字货币指数：价格及其周期

没有什么比轻松挣大钱更能麻痹理性
——巴菲特

4. Digital monetary index: prices and their cycles Nothing paralyses rationality more than easy money
-Buffett

4.1基准指数：BTC-COIN30-CCCI与价格周期

4.1 baseline index: BTC-COIN30-CCCI and price cycle

编制数字货币价格基准指数。为了对全球数字货币及投资组合市场表现进行评估，我们编制了数字货币市场价格的基准指数：

prepares a base index for digital currency prices. , in order to assess global digital currency and portfolio market performance, has developed a baseline index for digital currency market prices:

数字货币综合指数(Crypto CurrencyComposite Index，简称CCCI、数币综指)与数字货币30指数(COIN30 Index，简称数币30指数)，并与比特币指数(BTC Index)共同构成数字货币三大基准指数。

Digital Currency composite index (CryptoCurrenceComposite Index, CCI, DMC) and digital currency index 30 (COIN30 Index, Abbreviation 30 index) together with the `strong' bitcoin index

指数基期均为2013年4月28日，基点均为10点。数据来源：ccci.io

The base period of the index is 28 April 2013 and the base point is 10 points. Data source: ccci.io

数币综指由全球存在公开交易约1600个数字货币进行价格流通市值加权得出；COIN30[14]指数即COIN30篮子指数，挑选除比特币外市值较大、流动性较好的30个数字货币进行价格流通市值加权得出。

The sum of the currencies is weighted by the market value of the prices in circulation of some 1,600 digital currencies that are publicly traded globally; the COIN30 [14] index, the COIN30 basket index, is weighted by the market value of the price in the selection of 30 digital currencies with higher market value and better liquidity, with the exception of Bitcoins.

图40：三大基准指数：BTC-COIN30-CCCI

Figure 40: Three benchmark indicators: BTC-COIN30-CCCI

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

三大指数均回到历史高点一半位置后下跌，为证券市场异常波动首次反弹高点。截至2018年5月26日，比特币指数、数币30指数和数币综指分别为548.1点、1711.8点与771.2点，均在前期回升至历史高约一半的位置后继续下跌。

All three indices of fell back to their historical heights and were the first to rebound from unusual volatility in the securities market. As of 26 May 2018, the bitcoin index, the currency 30 index and the currency aggregate were 548.1 points, 1711.8 points and 771.2 points, respectively, all of which continued to fall after the previous period had risen to about half of their historical heights.

表7：数字货币价格历史高低点与证券市场价格历史高低点比例关系

Table 7: Relationship between the historical high and low of digital currency prices and the historical high and low of stock market prices

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

图41：BTC价格与证券市场异常波动比例关系

Figure 41: Ratio of BTC prices to abnormal fluctuations in the securities market

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

图42：COIN30指数与证券市场异常波动比例关系

Figure 42: Relationship of the COIN30 index to the ratio of abnormal fluctuations in the securities market

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

历史不会重演，但总是惊人的相似。无论是2000年纳斯达克互联网泡沫破灭，还是我国2008年及2015年A股二级市场异常波动时期，相关指数均先从低点首次反弹至历史高点约一半的位置后继续下跌至底部直至下行风险充分释放，随后回升并进入下一轮牛市。

Whether NASDAQ's Internet bubble burst in 2000 or during our 2008 and 2015 A share of the second-tier market abnormally volatile period,

而根据前文所述，当前比特币价格已跌破挖矿完全成本线，比特币历史上还尚未出现价格持续跌破完全成本的情况。

According to the foregoing, the price of Bitcoin has now fallen below the full cost line for mining, and the historical history of Bitcoin has not yet seen a consistent decline in the full cost of prices.

图43：CCCI指数与证券市场异常波动比例关系

Figure 43: Relationship of the CCCI index to the ratio of abnormal fluctuations in the securities market

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

进一步的拐点判断。根据比特币指数、数币30指数以及数币综指之间的超额收益关系，我们可以进一步对数字货币市场拐点作前瞻判断。

further turns. provides a forward-looking diagnosis of the turning points in the digital money market, based on the relationship between the bitcoin index, the currency 30 index, and the multi-currency index.

4.2多空指数：LSI与超额收益周期

4.2 spatial index: LSI and excess yield cycle

BTC、COIN30与CCCI之间超额收益关系：BTC基准属性使其波动小于COIN30及CCCI,牛市COIN30较BTC超额收益扩大，熊市BTC则跑赢COIN30。

The excess yield relationship between BTC, COIN30 and CCCI: BTC base attributes make it less volatile than COIN30 and CCCI, where COIN30 is larger than BTC's excess earnings, and BTC in Bears wins COIN30.

COIN30较BTC超额收益冲高回落预示市场见顶、由负转正预示市场底部到来。

COIN30 is higher than BTC's excess earnings. foreshadows the market to the top, from the bottom of the market to the bottom of the negative switch.

我们根据三大指数上述特性，编制了数字货币多空指数(Long-Short Index，简称LSI)。

On the basis of the above-mentioned characteristics of the three indices, we have developed the digital currency multi-space index (LSI) (Long-Short Index).

当前LSI指数冲高回落并开始由正转负，市场依然存在下行风险。

The current LSI index is high and starting to shift from positive to negative, and the market still has downside risks.

图44：数字货币多空指数(Long-ShortIndex,LSI)

Figure 44: Digital Currency Multiple Space Index (Long-ShortIndex, LSI)

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

比特币超额收益由正转负预示牛市起点。2017年3月16日，BTC对CCCI超额收益由正转负，BTC开始跑输大盘，预示牛市正式启动；2018年初大跌之后，BTC对CCCI超额收益开始由负转正，熊市中BTC抗跌性更强并跑赢大盘。

On March 16, 2017, BTC's excess gain on CCCI was shifted from positive to negative and BTC's excess gain on

同时随着BTC对CCCI超额收益在2018年3月23日冲高回落，数字货币走势逐步见底并在4月6日开始反弹。若后续BTC超额收益能继续回落并由正转负，牛市启动的概率将大大增加。

At the same time, as BTC's excess returns to CCCI fell on March 23, 2018 , the digital currency trend gradually fell and began to rebound on April 6th. would have significantly increased the probability of cattle starting if BTC's excess returns continued to fall and were reversed.

遗憾的是，最新数据并未显示这样的信号。BTC超额收益开始进一步扩大，这是熊市BTC抗跌的典型特征。

Unfortunately, the latest data do not show such a signal. The BTC excess gains are beginning to expand further, a typical feature of BTC's resilience in Bear City.

图45：BTC负超额收益预示牛市起点，正超额收益冲高回落预示见底反弹

Figure 45: BTC negative excess gains foreshadow cattle market starting point, positive excess gains up and down for a rebound

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

COIN30与BTC对CCCI超额收益互为映射：BTC超额收益由正转负时，COIN30超额收益由负转正。BTC超额收益冲高回落时，COIN30负超额收益见底反弹。

COIN30 and BTC's excess gains on CCCI are mapd at the same time: BTC's excess gains are reversed from positive to negative. When BTC's excess gains fall, the negative gain on COIN30 is reversed.

图46：COIN30正超额收益预示牛市起点，负超额收益见底反弹领先市场回升

Figure 46: Positive excess COIN30 foreshadows the starting point of the cattle market, with negative excess gains reflected a rebound in the bottom rebound lead market

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

进一步将COIN30指数与BTC比较，可以看到COIN30弹性大于BTC。

A further comparison of the COIN30 index with the BTC shows that the COIN30 elasticity is greater than the BTC.

COIN30超额收益先于市场见底。2018年初市场大幅调整后COIN30对BTC超额收益由正转负并在3月23日达最低的-19.06%，领先市场14天见底。

COIN30The excess gains of COIN30 to BTC after significant market adjustments in early 2018 were shifted from positive to negative and reached the lowest level of 19.06 per cent on March 23, with

2018年4月6日市场见底回暖后COIN30涨幅开始大于比特币，对BTC超额收益由负转正。熊市中比特币抗跌好于COIN30，COIN30对BTC超额收益则更早前瞻市场底部。

On April 6, 2018, when the market turned back, the COIN 30 increase began to be greater than Bitcoin, with a negative shift in BTC's excess earnings. Bitcoin in the bear city was better than COIN30, and the BTC's excess returns were higher than at the bottom of the market.

当前COIN30较BTC超额收益自底部反弹以来，突破正值失败并掉头向下，市场开始出现熊市特征。

The current COIN30 excess gain from BTC has failed and turned downwards since the bottom rebound, and the market has begun to feature as a bear market.

图47：BTC与COIN30互为映射，COIN30对BTC超额收益前瞻性更强

Figure 47: BTC and COIN30 map-to-map, COIN30 is more forward-looking for BTC excess returns

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

COIN30滞后BTC见顶。自2013年4月28日基期以来COIN30大幅跑赢比特币和数币综指。比特币最高涨幅在2017年12月16日达到14527.53%，COIN30最高涨幅在2018年1月7日达到48150.12%及对比特币超额收益最高点的35872.64%。较比特币滞后21天见顶。

COIN30 lags BTC to the top. has won Bitcoin and several currencies since the base period of 28 April 2013. The highest increase in Bitcoins was 14527.53% on 16 December 2017, and the highest increase in COIN30 was 48150.12% on 7 January 2018 and 35872.64% of the highest excess earnings in bitcoins.

图48：COIN30牛市大幅跑赢BTC及CCCI并滞后于BTC见顶

Figure 48: The CoIN30 Cows won BTC and CCCI in large numbers and lags to the top of BTC

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

综合考虑BTC、COIN30与CCCI之间超额收益关系，便可得到数字货币多空指数(Long-Short Index,LSI)。

A combination of the excess yield relationship between BTC, COIN30 and CCCI provides a digital currency multi-space index (Long-Short Index, LSI).

4.3 COIN30成分表现：2018年初至今1成涨幅翻倍，2017全年近半涨幅百倍，最高万倍

4.3 COIN30 composition performance: 1 per cent more than doubled from the beginning of 2018 to the present, nearly a hundred times more than in the whole of 2017, up to a thousand times

2018年初调整以来，COIN30成分币中除ONT为上线三个月的新币外，

Since the adjustment at the beginning of 2018, in addition to ONT, the COIN30 component has been in line for three months.

AE\BTM\BNB\VEN\TRX\EOS涨幅均已为正。

The increase in AE\BTM\BNB\VEN\TRX\EOS has been positive.

其中

of which

AE\ONT\BTM\BNB\VEN\TRX\EOS\ETH\NEO\STEEM\XLM\OMG\LTC\ZEC较COIN30指数获得正超额收益。

AE\nt\BTM\BEN\TRX\EOS\ETH\EO\STEEM\XLM\OMG\LTC\ZEC obtained positive excess gains over COIN30.

表8：COIN30成分币2018年初至今涨幅

Table 8: COIN 30 ingredient increase from the beginning of 2018 to the present

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

图49：COIN30成分币2018年初至今涨幅及其超额收益

Figure 49: COIN 30 ingredient increase from the beginning of 2018 to the present and its excess earnings

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

2017年全年所有数字货币均获得正收益，其中XVG\NANO\NEO\XRP\NEM\STRAT\BTS\XLM\LSK涨幅超百倍并较COIN30指数获得正超额收益。XVG涨幅则超万倍。

All digital currencies received positive returns throughout 2017, with XVG\NANO\NEO\XRP\EM\STRAT\BTS\LM\LSK increasing more than 100 times and earning positive excess gains over the COIN30 index. XVG increasing more than 10,000 times.

表9：COIN30成分币2017全年涨幅

Table 9: Increased COIN 30 ingredient 2017 year-round

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

图50：COIN30成分币2017全年涨幅

Figure 50: Increased COIN 30 ingredient 2017 year-round

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

图51：COIN30成分币2017全年超额收益

Figure 51: COIN 30 ingredient overtakes 2017 year-round

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

COIN30货币篮子成分币在2017年有强劲的市场表现并逐步成为全球市值较大、流动性较好的数字货币，与比特币共同占据全球数字货币市值的90%。

The COIN30 basket of currency components showed strong market performance in 2017 and gradually became a more marketable and liquid digital global currency, which together with Bitcoin held 90 per cent of the market value of the global digital currency.

COIN30与比特币共同且有差异地反映了全球数字货币大盘的整体表现。

COIN30 and Bitcoin[strong] reflect, together and in varying ways, the overall performance of the global array of digital currencies.

5.关于最新市场表现的策略综述

5. Strategic overview of the latest market performance

（数据截至2018年5月26日）

(Data as at 26 May 2018)

出于阅读方便，这里就本文涉及到的数字货币相关策略判断再作简单综述。

For ease of reading, a brief overview is provided here of the digital currency-related strategic judgements covered in this paper.

比特币尚未出现价格持续跌破挖矿完全成本的历史，但多空指标显示当前市场依然存在下行风险。

bitcoin has not had a history of falling prices continuously into the full cost of mining, but multi-empty indicators suggest that the current market still has downside risks.

5.1多头因素：成本支撑与市场容量

5.1 Multiple factors: cost support and market capacity

1.成本支撑7788美元：比特币当前价格7355.9美元，已跌破比特币挖矿完全成本7787.6美元的一阶段成本支撑，比特币历史上尚未出现价格持续跌破挖矿完全成本的情形。

1. Cost supports US$ 7788: bitcoin's current price is US$ 7355.9, one-stage cost supports by falling out of bitcoin to the full cost of US$ 7787.6 and

2.储备空间10倍：按照全球央行黄金储备约1.6万亿美元测算，对应比特币价格为7.5万美元/枚，较当前价格涨幅空间仍有10倍左右；

2. 10 times the reserve space: , calculated on the basis of a global central bank gold reserve of approximately $1.6 trillion, corresponds to a price of $75,000 per item in bitcoin, which is about 10 times more than the current price increase;

3.储备空间82倍：按照全球央行外汇储备约13.4万亿美元测算，COIN30货币篮子市值涨幅空间仍有82倍左右；

3. Eighty-two times the reserve space: , estimated at about $13.4 trillion in the global central bank's foreign exchange reserves, still around 82 times the market value of the COIN30 basket;

图52：比特币价格一阶上限7.5万美元，一阶段成本支撑0.78万美元

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

5.2空头因素：多空指标由多转空

5.2 Empty factor: Multiple empty indicator shifts from multiple to empty

1.LSI多空指数掉头：LSI指数冲高回落，市场随即形成顶部开始下跌。最新数据则显示LSI指数开始由正转负，市场依然存在下行风险。

1. LSI multi-empty index turns around: LSI index surges and the market starts to fall at the top. 's latest data show that the LSI index begins to shift from positive to negative and the market still has downside risks.

图53：LSI多空指数显示市场或将继续下行

Figure 53: LSI multi-space index shows the market or will continue down

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

2.BTC熊市抗跌特征扩大：若BTC对CCCI超额收益能持续回落并由正转负则牛市持续的概率将大大增加。遗憾的是，最新数据并未显示这样的信号：BTC超额收益开始进一步扩大，这是熊市BTC抗跌的典型特征。

BTC has expanded the anti-defeating characteristics of the bear city: would have significantly increased the probability that the cow market would continue if BTC had been able to recover and reverse CCI excess gains. Unfortunately, the latest data do not indicate that BTC excess gains have begun to expand further, a typical feature of the bear city BTC resistance.

3.COIN30反弹乏力：同时COIN30对CCCI超额收益也显示市场反弹非常乏力。

3. COIN30 rebounds: and CoIN30's excess returns to CCCI also show that the market rebounds are very weak.

图54：BTC超额收益及COIN30超额收益均显示熊市特征，市场反弹乏力

Figure 54: BTC excess gains and COIN30 excess gains show bear market characteristics and market rebounds

资料来源：CCCI.IO，次世代经济研究所

Source: CCCI.IO, Institute of Subgenerational Economic Research

从比特币诞生开始，区块链及数字货币已发展近十年，近年更是野蛮生长，但数字货币制度演进将继续伴随激烈的市场出清。

Since the birth of Bitcoin, block chains and digital currencies have developed for almost a decade, and in recent years have grown savagely, but the evolution of the digital monetary system will continue to be accompanied by a fierce market clean-up.

因此我们认为当前公有链及平台链仍有较大机会，后来者将继续竞争COIN30货币篮子成分地位，而更广阔的TOKEN类数字货币也将随全球资产通证化(Tokenization)进程迅速崛起，成为未来更大的市场，广阔天地大有作为。

We therefore believe that there is still a greater opportunity for the public and platform chains of at present , that the competition for the COIN30 basket of monetary components will continue, and that the broader token type of digital currency will soon rise as the process of global asset communisation proceeds to become a larger market for the future, and that will make a big difference.

货币对于决定历史进程的作用最大。

Currency plays the greatest role in determining the course of history.

附注

note

[1]布雷顿森林体系：1944年7月，西方主要国家在美国布雷顿森林确立了美元与黄金挂钩、各国货币与美元挂钩的“美元-黄金”双挂钩本位，奠定了美元在国际货币体系中的核心主导地位；

[1] Bretton Woods System: In July 1944, major Western countries established the United States dollar-to-gold peg in Bretton Woods, United States, and the United States dollar-to-gold peg in national currencies, establishing the central dominance of the United States dollar in the international monetary system;

[2]牙买加体系：1976年1月，国际货币基金组织(IMF)在牙买加举行会议，就黄金非货币化、多样化汇率制度与国际储备体系、国际收支调节机制多样化等方面达成一致并形成了新的国际货币体系；

[2] Jamaica System: In January 1976, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) met in Jamaica to agree on and develop a new international monetary system in the areas of de-monetization of gold, diversification of exchange rate regimes and international reserve systems, and diversification of balance-of-payments adjustment mechanisms;

[3]黄金事实上正在逐步失去其作为信用货币价值准备的基础，其期货到期交割量已远大于可真实交割的实物黄金储量，储备黄金正在逐步变成纸黄金；

[3] Gold is in fact losing its base as a currency of credit preparation, its futures are maturing well beyond the physical reserves of gold that can be delivered in real terms, and its reserves are gradually turning into paper gold;

[4]这里的“锚定物”不仅指某种物品，更指某种货币锚定之制度安排；

[4] The term “lock” here refers not only to an item, but also to a system of currency anchoring arrangements;

[5]特里芬难题：1960年，美国经济学家特里芬在其《黄金与美元危机：自由兑换的未来》一书中提出由于美元与黄金挂钩，其他国家货币与美元挂钩，随着世界经济的发展要求美元逆差输出进而导致贬值，而作为国际储备货币的美元必须稳定币值进而维持顺差，两者矛盾为悖论；

[5] Trifine’s dilemma: In 1960, United States economist Triffin, in his book “The Gold and dollar Crisis: A Freely Converted Future”, argued the paradox of pegging other countries’ currencies to the United States dollar, leading to depreciation as the world economy developed to demand the export of the dollar’s deficit, while the United States dollar, as an international reserve currency, had to stabilize the currency and thus maintain a surplus;

[6]关于“区块链经济体(BlockChain Entity)”等特殊概念请参照后续研究；

[6] For specific concepts such as Block Chain Economy, please refer to the follow-up study;

[7]见上一条附注；

[7] See the previous note;

[8] COIN30货币篮子成分根据市场情况进行调整，调整周期不小于三个月，当前成分如下：ETH\XRP\BCH\EOS\LTC\ADA\XLM\IOTA\NEO\XMR\DASH\TRX\NEM\VEN\ETC\QTUM\OMG\BNB\ICX\AE\LSK\BTM\ZEC\XVG\NANO\STEEM\BTS\WAVES\STRAT\ONT；

[8] The currency basket component of COIN30 is adjusted to market conditions for a period of not less than three months, and the current composition is as follows: ETH\XRP\BCH\EOS\TC\ADA\XLM\IOTA\EO\MR\DASH\TRX\EM\ETC\QUM\OMG\B\ICX\AE\BSK\BTM\ZEC\NO\STEEM\BAVES\STRAT\ont;

[9]挖矿完全成本线为利益相关方维护的价格底线，尤其是矿机生产商；

[9] Price bottom line maintained by the full cost line of mining mining for stakeholders, especially miner producers;

[10]关于“社群共识溢价”的测算将在后续研究中推出；

[10] The calculation of the “community consensus premium” will be presented in a follow-up study;

[11]由于按ETH计价，这里的COIN30货币篮子不包含ETH自身；

[11] The COIN30 basket does not contain ETH itself because it is based on ETH;

[12]国际经济学模型中，开放经济体(开放加密经济体)：1.国家(社区)货币政策的独立性；2.国际(社区)间资本的自由流动以及2.维持固定汇率三者不可兼得，称为三元悖论；

[12] In the international economics model, open economies (open cryptography): 1. The independence of national (community) monetary policy; 2. Free movement of capital between international (community) and 2. The maintenance of a fixed exchange rate cannot be combined, known as the Trinity paradox;

[13] BTC、COIN30市值均按流通市值计算，即按已经采掘出的数字货币量计算；

[13] The market value of BTC and COIN30 is calculated on the basis of market value in circulation, i.e., the amount of digital currency extracted;

[14] 同[8] 。

[14] Same as [8].

完。

Over.

(本文首发于次世代经济研究所，巴比特资讯经授权转载)

(Preliminary from the Institute of Subgenerational Economics, which was authorized to reproduce Babbit information)

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