10万美元呼声愈发响亮 比特币疯牛行情未完待续？

加密货币行业的一些资深高管坚称，比特币新一轮牛市已经开始，同时一些对比特币极度乐观的机构投资者高喊比特币将在2024年一举突破10万美元大关，进而创下历史新高。比特币今年可谓开启“疯牛”行情，年内暴涨超过120%，当前已突破4万美元大关（自2022年5月来的最高点）。许多投资者乐观地认为，这种涨势将持续到2024年。比特币现货ETF将于明年在美国获得批准的预期，加之美联储降息预期升温，引发了人们对加密货币市场的兴奋情绪，推动比特币价格大涨。

Some senior executives in the crypto-currency industry insist that a new round of cattle in Bitcoin has begun, while some highly optimistic institutional investors in Bitcoin shouted that bitcoin would break the $100,000 mark in 2024, thus setting an all-time high. Bitcoin could be called the “crazy cow” business this year, rising by more than 120% during the year, and now breaking the $40,000 mark (the highest point since May 2022). Many investors are optimistic that this increase will continue until 2024. Bitcoin’s spot ETF is expected to be approved in the United States next year.

“感觉（2023年）是为即将到来的加密货币牛市做准备的一年，人们对2024年和2025年充满希望，”Ledger首席执行官Pascal Gauthier上周在接受媒体采访时表示。比特币这一加密货币的上一个历史高点是在2021年11月创下的近6.9万美元。

“The feeling (2023) is a year of preparation for the coming crypto-currency cow market, with great hopes for 2024 and 2025.” The Chief Executive Officer of Ledger, Pascal Gauthier, said in an interview with the media last week. The last historical high of Bitcoin, an encrypted currency, was nearly $690 million in November 2021.

从创下6.9万美元这一历史性高点以后，加密货币行业受到了一连串问题的打击，从美联储开启激进加息周期和各种投资项目的崩溃，再到FTX交易帝国破产和一些加密公司面临刑事审判。FTX曾是全球最大规模的加密货币交易所之一，其创始人山姆?班克曼-弗里德（Sam Bankman-Fried）在美国被判七项刑事欺诈罪名成立后，面临100多年监禁。

Since the historic high of $69,000, the crypto-currency industry has been hit by a series of problems, ranging from the collapse of the Fed’s aggressive interest-raising cycle and various investment projects to the bankruptcy of the FTX trading empire and the criminal prosecution of a number of encryption companies. The FTX was one of the largest crypto-currency exchanges in the world, its founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, who faced more than 100 years of imprisonment after having been convicted of seven criminal frauds in the United States.

与此同时，Binance首席执行官赵长鹏对刑事指控表示认罪，并辞去了公司首席执行官一职，这是与美国司法部达成的43亿美元和解协议的一部分。许多加密货币业内人士认为，这两起重要案件的结论可以说为困扰加密市场的相关问题彻底划清了界限。

Meanwhile, Chief Executive Officer of Binance Zhao Chang Peng pleaded guilty to the criminal charges and resigned as CEO of the company, as part of a $4.3 billion settlement agreement with the United States Department of Justice. Many insiders in the crypto-money industry believe that the conclusions of these two important cases can be said to have completely demarcated the issues that plagued the encryption market.

比特币ETF获批预期高涨

BitcoinETF approval is expected to rise.

来自Lightspark的首席执行官David Marcus表示：“我认为，一旦你摆脱了投机阶段，我认为我们几乎已经完成了重要事项，尽管可能还没有完全完成。然后你就可以让真正的建设者专注于技术和世界上可以解决的问题，而不仅仅是一个巨大的数字赌场供人们进行交易。”

Chief Executive Officer David Marcus from Lightsark said, “I think, once you're out of the speculative phase, I think we've almost finished the important thing, even though it may not be completely done. Then you can get real builders to focus on technology and the problems that the world can solve, not just a huge digital casino for people to trade.”

Marcus是Facebook曾失败的Diem稳定币项目的前负责人，他现在正致力于改进比特币作为支付网络的技术。

Marcus, a former head of the failed Facebook Diem stabilization project, is now working to improve the technology of Bitcoin as a payment network.

因此，在Marcus等加密货币行业资深高管看来，既然这些问题都解决了，投资者就应该把注意力集中在行业所认为的积极发展上。首先，人们对美国市场首只比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）可能很快获得批准越来越感到兴奋，而这点可能会吸引以前不想接触加密货币的大型传统机构投资者。

Thus, in the view of senior executives in the crypto-currency industry, such as Marcus, since these problems have been solved, investors should focus on what they see as positive developments in the industry. First, there is growing excitement that the first Bitcoin Exchange Trading Fund (ETF) in the US market may soon be approved, which may attract large traditional institutional investors who did not want to access encrypted money.

“我认为这只ETF的真正含义是，比特币将成为主流投资方式，而这正是人们一直在等待的，”Ledger首席执行官Gauthier表示。

“I think the true meaning of this ETF is that bitcoin will become the mainstream mode of investment, and that's what people have been waiting for.” Ledger CEO Gauthier said.

第二个重要发展节点是比特币减半，大概每四年发生一次，最新的计划于2024年5月进行。减半是指比特币矿工们（即维护比特币网络的实体）看到他们的挖矿工作回报减少了一半。这为比特币的供应设定了上限——比特币的供应量永远只有2100万枚——这往往是新一轮反弹背后的一个因素。

The second important development node is the halving of Bitcoin, which takes place every four years, with the latest plan taking place in May 2024. The halving of the number of bitcoin miners (the entity that maintains the Bitcoin network) saw their mining work cut by half.

“许多市场参与者预计在比特币减半局面之后将会出现加密货币牛市，但考虑到ETF的相关消息，我们很可能会在大多数加密投资者离场观望之前就出现一轮牛市，而这可能会导致价格大幅上涨。”来自加密货币交易所CoinDCX的国际市场副总裁Vijay Ayyar表示。

“Many market participants are expected to see an encrypted currency cow market after the halving of bitcoin, but given the relevant ETF news, we are likely to see a round of cattle before most encrypted investors leave, which could lead to a substantial increase in prices.” Vijay Ayyar, Vice-President of the International Market from CoinDCX, an encrypted currency exchange, said.

比特币有望疯涨至10万美元？

Bitcoin is on the way to $100,000?

已经有分析人士大胆呼吁2024年将出现比特币价格突破10万美元这一史诗性的价格关口。

Analysts have dared to call for the historic price threshold of 100,000 dollars in bitcoin by 2024.

首先是渣打银行（Standard Chartered）在上周重申了4月份发布的预测，即比特币到2024年底将达到10万美元。该机构表示，这将受到众多比特币ETF获批的推动。根据CoinDesk的统计数据，这意味着比特币的价格将较上周五约38,413美元的交易价格上涨约160%。

First, the Standard Chartered Bank reiterated last week its April forecast that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by the end of 2024. The agency said that this would be driven by the approval of a large number of Bitcoin ETFs. According to CoinDesk, the price of Bitcoin would be about 160% higher than last week’s transaction of approximately $38,413.

自称为加密金融服务公司的Matrixport上周发布了一份预测报告，预计比特币到2024年4月将达到63140美元，到明年年底左右将达到大约12.5万美元。“根据我们的通胀模型，预计宏观环境仍将是加密货币价格的强劲推动力。预计通货膨胀率将再次下降，这可能促使美联储开始降息。”“再加上地缘政治逆流因素，这种健康的货币政策支持应该会在2024年将比特币推向新高。”

Matrixport, known as Encrypted Financial Services, released a forecast report last week that by April 2024 Bitcoin was expected to reach $63140 and around the end of next year, approximately $125,000. “According to our inflation model, the macro-environment is expected to remain a strong driving force in the price of encrypted currencies. Inflation is expected to fall again, which may prompt the Fed to start cutting interest rates.” “In addition to geopolitical reversals, this healthy monetary policy support should push bitcoins to new heights in 2024.”

目前市场的普遍预期是美联储明年将至少降息125个基点（相当于5次25个基点的降息），这一押注似乎已经为美债收益率的进一步下滑，以及股债商品市场的持续反弹铺平了道路。

The prevailing expectation in the current market is that the Fed will reduce interest rates by at least 125 basis points (equivalent to five 25 basis points) next year, a bet that seems to have paved the way for a further decline in yields on US debt and a continuing rebound in the stock market.

分析师们的评论观点普遍提及，放松货币政策，即美联储等央行开启降息周期可谓是对比特币的最大力度支持。比特币被视为一种风险资产，与此同时，一些投资者却将比特币视为一种对抗全球不确定性的“避险”资产，尤其可以在地缘政治冲突时期将资金投入这一主张“去中心化”的加密货币。

Analysts’ comments generally point out that easing monetary policy, i.e. central banks like the US Federal Reserve starting interest-reduction cycles, can be considered the strongest support for a bitcoin. Bitcoin is seen as a risky asset, while some investors view Bitcoin as a “risk-free” asset against global uncertainty, in particular by “decentralizing” the idea of investing money in geopolitical conflicts.

当被问及比特币是否会在2024年达到10万美元时，Gauthier强调：“极有可能。”但是他拒绝给出具体的价格预测。“我们所看到的是强劲的基本面，”他表示。

When asked whether Bitcoin would reach $100,000 in 2024, Gauthier stressed: “Very likely.” But he refused to give specific price projections. “What we see is a strong fundamental,” he said.

来自加密货币交易所CoinDCX的国际市场副总裁Ayyar则表示，比特币的价格正在“巩固”到38,000美元的“关键水平”以下，这对比特币来说是利好的。他表示，一旦这个水平被打破，买盘力量可能推动比特币接下来大举反弹至4.5万美元至4.8万美元之间。

According to Ayyar, the vice-president of the international market from CoinDCX, the crypto-currency exchange, the price of Bitcoin is “consolidating” to below the “critical level” of $38,000, which is good for Bitcoin. He said that once this level is broken, buying power could push Bitcoin to rebound to between $45,000 and $48,000.

不过，他警告称，如果该产品（比特币ETF）再次被美国监管机构否决，本轮比特币涨势可能会宣告终结且持续回调。他表示，本轮比特币涨势在很大程度上是建立在对比特币现货ETF获批的这一预期之上。Ayyar表示：“比特币ETF的全面否决也可能对这轮加密货币行情造成严重破坏，因此肯定需要密切关注。”

He warned, however, that if the product (bitcoin ETF) were rejected again by the U.S. regulatory agencies, the current round of bitcoin upswings could end and continue to bounce back. He said that the current round of bitcoins upswings were largely based on the expectation that Bitcoin's spot ETFs would be approved. Ayyar said: “The complete rejection of Bitcoin ETFs could also cause serious damage to this round of encrypted currency and therefore certainly require close attention.”

本文源自：智通财经

This post is from: Wisdom and Finance.