3个月暴涨100%！币圈的春天还有多远？

　　3个月暴涨100%！币圈的春天还有多远？

　　“比特币现在多少钱了？”

"How much is Bitcoin now?"

　　5月11日，郝铭突然在一个互金人士为主的微信群里发问。有人告诉他：6000多美元了。

On May 11, Hao-jung suddenly asked in a group of micro-letters dominated by mutual gold. He was told: over $6,000.

　　这时候，郝铭可能才意识到自己误打误撞发财了。去年底，郝铭的一位朋友因生意周转向他借了一笔钱，到期还款时却是山穷水尽，拿不出现金。最终，对方用比特币偿还了这笔借款，每枚比特币折价约17000元人民币，共计50余枚。

At the end of last year, Hao-jung, a friend of Hao-jung borrowed a sum of money from him because of the turnover of his business, which was due to a mountain, and could not be repaid in cash. Eventually, the loan was repaid in bitcoin, at a discount of about 17,000 yuan per bitcoin, for a total of more than 50 pieces.

　　“在我媳妇那里放着，我俩都不懂，这东西卖了（钱）能直接到账吗？”郝铭问。

“With my daughter-in-law, neither one of us understands. Can this be sold to the account?” Hao asked.

　　有人在群里给郝铭算了一笔账：17000元人民币/枚买进的比特币，如今价格已突破48000元，相当于每枚净赚30000元。50余枚比特币价值200多万了。

Hao-jung was given an account in the group: 17,000 yuan in bitcoin/barrel, and now the price is over 48,000 yuan, equivalent to 30,000 dollars in net profit per piece. More than 50 bitcoins are worth more than 2 million dollars.

　　尽管郝铭想尽快出手，落袋为安，但几乎所有朋友都劝他拿住，因为比特币最高点曾突破了20000美元，今年大家的期待还会更高。甚至有业内人士预测如果他能拿住一年半到两年，有可能晋级千万富翁。

Despite Hao’s desire to get out as soon as possible, almost all his friends persuaded him to take it, because the highest point of Bitcoins had passed $200, and expectations were even higher this year. Even insiders predicted that if he could hold it for a year and a half to two years, he could be promoted to a millionaire.

　　实际上，经历了一年多的熊市后，比特币在今年已经迎来了反转。从2月份至今的3个月里，比特币连续上涨。最近11天，其更是迎来11连阳，创下2017年以来最长的连涨周期。5月12日早上，比特币突破7000美元点位，这也是继2018年9月以来，比特币重新站上7000美元大关。2018年12月比特币价格曾跌至3100美元，自今年2月以来，比特币价格已经翻倍。

In fact, after more than a year of bears, Bitcoin has turned back this year. In the three months since February, Bitcoin has risen continuously. In the last 11 days, it has reached 11 consecutive suns, the longest cycle of growth since 2017. On the morning of May 12, Bitcoin has crossed the mark of $7,000, and since September 2018, Bitcoin has re-established its position at $7,000. Bitcoin prices have fallen to $3,100 in December 2018, and they have doubled since February of this year.

　　5月12日早上9：46，比特币报7160.00美元，大涨9.41%。数据来源：华尔街见闻

At 9:46 a.m. on 12 May, Bitcoin reported $716.00, a significant increase of 9.41 per cent.

　　同期，其它的主流货币如以太坊、莱特币等也出现了不同幅度的上涨。 过去24小时内，以太币、比特币现金、莱特币和EOS都实现了两位数的增长。

During the same period, other mainstream currencies, such as Etherno, Leitecoin, etc., have also increased by different degrees. In the last 24 hours, the two-digit growth has been achieved in Temas, Bitcoin, Latco, and EOS.

　　比特币的持续上涨行情给了郝铭突然的惊喜。而整个4月份，陶南的心情一直都不错，熬过寒冬的他身心舒畅。

The continued upturn in Bitcoin gave Hao-jung a sudden surprise. In April, Tonan was in a good mood, and he lived through the winter with a good heart and soul.

　　让陶南感受到温暖的不只是气温，还有币圈。1993年出生的陶南在一家区块链公司担任数据运营，但他表示公司并没有多少真正的区块链业务，主要还是发币、炒币。私下里，陶南也是一个坚定的数字货币投资者。在他看来，没有币圈，何以暴富，在房价早已高企的魔都，他认定要改变命运唯有炒币，反正就那么点钱，只能搏大的。

Tonan was born in 1993 as a data company in a block chain company, but he said that the company did not have much of a real block chain business, mainly in the form of coins and coins. In private, Tonan was also a firm digital money investor. In his view, there was no currency ring, nothing to be rich, and in the capital, the price of the house was already high, and he decided that the only way to change his destiny was to pay for the money, and that it was to pay for the money.

　　陶南注意到，从去年底至今，比特币交易量明显增多，达到了之前的五倍左右。以他常用的一家交易所为例，平台之前平均每天成交量在2.8万比特币，如今每天至少达到10万左右比特币，高的时候甚至到了17万比特币。据陶南预计，今年三月份至今，整个数字货币市场大概流入了500亿美金。

Tonan has observed that the volume of Bitcoin transactions has increased significantly since the end of last year, reaching about five times the previous five times. For example, in one of his usual exchanges, the platform, which previously had an average of 28,000 bitcoins per day, has now reached at least 100,000 bitcoins per day, and even 170,000 bitcoins per day.

　　不过从2017年就进入币圈的陶南迄今为止还没赚到钱，因为2019年的小阳春并未抚平他在2018年的伤痕，从2017年12月到2018年12月，币圈的主旋律就是一跌再跌，一直跌到了脚踝。

However, Tonan, who had entered the currency ring since 2017, has so far not made any money, as the early spring of 2019 did not heal his wounds in 2018, and from December 2017 to December 2018, the main melody of the currency has fallen again and again and has fallen to the ankles.

　　“翻倍这点涨幅不算什么，去年有些币种直接跌掉了99%的币值，现在也就算个反弹吧，不过主流的数字货币都涨了，说明牛市的信号有了，我就是入场太晚了。”陶南很期待下一波行情的到来。

“It's no big deal to double that increase, and some of the currencies dropped 99% of the value directly last year, and now they're a rebound, but the mainstream digital money is up, indicating that the cattle market signal is too late for me to enter.” Tonan is looking forward to the next wave.

　　陶南还算是币圈的价值投资者，从来不买山寨币、传销币，只要有钱他就定投比特币和以太坊。虽然在高点入场，但因为2018年11月份暴跌之后抄底了一波，因此账户已经接近持平。“再有一波行情我就赚了，未来两年就靠这个了。”陶南说。

Tonan is also a valuable investor in the currency chain, never buying a coin, never selling a coin, and whenever he has the money, he's going to throw a bitcoin and an Ether. Although he came in at a high point, the account is close to being flat because of a storm that struck in November 2018. “One more wave of business makes money, and that's what he's going to do for the next two years.” Tonan says.

　　而陶南的一位同事，则在去年11份经历大跌后就选择了“就地卧倒装死”，账户内金额变化堪称“从玛莎拉蒂到嘉陵摩托”，最近似乎已经回到了一辆经济型轿车的数字，但距离回本还很远。因此他现在没有做任何操作，卖了亏本，补仓没子弹。

One of Tonan's colleagues, on the other hand, chose, after 11 major drops last year, “to lie down and die”, and the change in the amount in the account was called “from Maserati to the Car mausoleum”, which seems to have recently returned to the number of an economic sedan, but it is still far from home. So he is not doing anything now, selling his losses, making up his warehouse without bullets.

　　值得关注的是陶南是2017年底从互联网行业离职加入那家区块链公司的，当时拿到了不菲的工资。区块链公司员工也都以90后为主。据猎聘网统计，区块链技术开发和产品运营类职位是互联网行业的1.9倍。但进入2019年后，区块链市场低迷，行业整体薪酬下降压力大于互联网。同时区块链行业还是高学历，本科及以上学历占了91.2%，平均年龄则为30.2岁，70.6%的从业者在25-35岁之间。

It is worth noting that Taunan left the Internet industry at the end of 2017 to join the block chain, and received a good salary at that time. The members of the block chain are also predominantly 90-year-olds. According to hunting networks, the number of jobs in the block chain technology development and product operations category is 1.9 times higher than in the Internet.

　　事实上，自从去年下半年开始，陶南只能拿到底薪，绩效则一直被公司扣押。而每月除了给自己留点生活费，他基本上把所有的钱都投到了数字货币。在他所在的公司，这样的人并不在少数。

In fact, since the second half of last year, Tonan has been paid to the bottom, while his performance has been held up by the company. In addition to keeping a living allowance for himself every month, he has basically invested all his money in digital currency.

　　数字货币市场充满了一夜暴富的故事，但对于大部分币圈投资者来说，他们不是在亏钱，就是在亏钱的路上。惜越科技CEO朱成林是一位“币圈老人”，浸淫币圈多年。据他观察，早期进入的人群都经历过财富过山车，完全退出的可能还不到5%。

The digital money market is full of stories of one-night wealth, but for most of the investors in the currency circle, they are either losing money or on their way to losing money. The techno-Ceo Joo Sunglin is an old man in the currency ring who has been immersed in the currency ring for years.

　　传销币、资金盘没有春天

no spring rolls.

　　对吴迎春来说，时间还停留在寒冬，而且可能是无限期的冰封。

For Wu, the time has remained in the cold winter and may be an indefinite ice freeze.

　　2018年7月份，正值炎夏，在同事的推荐下，从事现金贷行业的吴迎春接触到了一种叫COL的数字货币，据称已经上了火币网。根据当时的规定，投资者可以先以18000元/台的价格买矿机，同时赠送20个COL币，而每台矿机每天能产生6个币，一个币的价格当时是600多元。这样计算的话，不到一个月就能收回成本，以后再挖的币都是利润，相当于每天一台矿机就能挣3600元，同时，如果投资者再推荐别人买1台矿机的也能得到20个币的奖励，就是1万多元。

In July 2018, on the advice of colleagues, Wu Shenchun, a cash-crediter, was exposed to a digital currency called COL, allegedly on a gunnet. Under the terms of the regulations, investors could buy a miner at a price of $18,000 a day, while at the same time giving away 20 colones, each of which would produce six coins a day, while the price was 600.

　　吴迎春公司里的几个高管联合购买了1000台矿机，而他在上海的几个朋友也买了近200台矿机。看着他们日进斗金，吴迎春也开始心痒痒，于是也进了场，手上的矿机逐渐从3台增加到了18台，又到了100台。

Several of Wu's executives jointly purchased 1,000 mine machines, while several of his friends in Shanghai bought nearly 200 mine machines. When they watched the sun rise, Wu started to tickle, and then came in, increasing the number of miners from 3 to 18 and to 100.

　　然而，快乐的时光非常短暂。8月份下旬开始，COL币的价格一泻千里，从600余元直接到了几毛钱。大为失望的吴迎春甚至连账户都无心再打开，时间长了后台都找不到了，“一提就心烦”。

However, happy times are very short. Starting in the second half of August, the price of COL was a thousand miles, from more than 600 to a few cents. Disappointing Wu Baing Chun didn't even open his account again, and couldn't find it backstage for a long time, and he was upset.

　　“都说现金贷暴利，但跟币圈的收割机比，干现金贷的都是实干家，币圈的真是太没有底线了。”吴迎春至今说起这笔投资都觉得愤愤不平。

“All say that cash loans are profitier, but they are dryer than the money chain's harvesters, and that the currency circle is so unfavourable.” Wu Seung-chun has so far spoken of this investment as outraged.

　　工作原因，吴迎春后来曾接触过一个福建大佬，才明白COL只是一些人做的资金盘——先在国外运营一年左右，然后上火币网、以太网，再到中国收割韭菜。而到了中国，他们把区块链科技和传销做结合，先邀请大佬站台、四处开推广会吸引用户加入，再通过高额返利让用户去吸引身边的亲戚朋友加入，在达到顶端时直接砸盘、消失。

For reasons of work, Wu was able to reach out to one of Fujian's seniors only to understand that COL was a pool of money made by some – first operating abroad for about a year, then going on to the gunnets, Ethernets, and then to China to harvest herbs. In China, they combined block chain technology and distribution, inviting the big guy to stand on the stage, running a promotion, attracting users, and, through high returns, bringing users to their next-of-kin friends to join, smashing the plate and disappearing at the top.

　　据吴迎春了解，他参与的COL这个所谓的数字货币当时募资规模到了30亿元左右，而其中至少有8000万元来自他的朋友圈，这些人大都从事现金贷行业。

Wu was aware that the so-called COL, the so-called digital currency in which he was involved, had raised about $3 billion, of which at least $80 million came from his circle of friends, most of whom were in the cash-credit industry.

　　而让他憋屈的是，当他认为自己投资数字货币亏钱时，一个朋友直言不讳地说，“这个也算币圈？这就是个资金盘！”

And what held him back was that, when he thought he was losing money in the digital currency, a friend said, "This is a currency circle? This is a money bar!"

　　吴迎春是被割的韭菜，林飞的朋友王云桥则是一位镰刀手。两三年前，王云桥还是个屌丝，进入币圈后，他迅速赚几个亿，不过今天他已经出事了。

Wu was cut off as a pickle, and Linfei's friend Wang Yunbridge was a sickle man. Two or three years ago, Wang Yunbridge was a dick, and he quickly made hundreds of millions of dollars after entering the coin ring, but today he's already in trouble.

　　据自媒体币圈山海经，王云桥在2018年做了一个叫变态矿工的区块链游戏（BTMC），游戏粗制滥造，但机制设计的颇为复杂。用户参与后可以享受动态和静态两重收益，用户推荐朋友参加也可以提成，而可以参与提成的等级达到了10级。王云桥几乎推荐了身边所有的亲戚、朋友投入到这个项目，包括不少做高利贷的老板。

According to the media, in 2018, Wang Yun Bridge played a block-chain game called BTMC for perverted miners, but the mechanism was designed in a complicated way. Users can enjoy both dynamic and static benefits when they are involved, and users can recommend their friends to participate, and they can participate at a level of 10. Wang Yun Bridge has almost recommended all relatives and friends of its kind to the project, including a number of lenders.

　　在大量用户进入后，王云桥开始改变游戏规则并限制提现，同时还发布公告称将推出矿机，停止提现。至此，BTMC开启了跌跌不休之路，每天有30%-40%的跌幅，很多投资者每天看着单边下跌的走势图，欲哭无泪，如今其币价已由最初的6元变成了几分钱。

When a large number of users entered, Wang Yun Bridge began to change the rules of the game and restrict the withdrawal, while an announcement was issued that the mine would be launched and that the withdrawal would stop. So, the BTMC set in motion a 30-40-per-cent drop every day, and many investors looked down on the path of unilateral decline every day, trying to cry without tears, now that the initial $6 had turned into a fraction.

　　据林飞估计，王云桥靠这个项目圈到了3亿元，虽然很多人报案但至今仍未立案，所以王云桥目前还处在自由状态，甚至打算拿出5000万给妻子豪赌。而由于得罪人太多，王云桥给部分亲近的人退了钱且开始行事低调，其他亏钱的投资人就不在他考虑范围内了。

According to Lin Fei’s estimate, Wang Yun Bridge has reached $300 million on this project, and although many have reported it, it has not yet been opened, so Wang Yun Bridge is still in a state of freedom, and even intends to offer 50 million to his wife. Because of too many offenses, Wang Yun Bridge gives money back to some of his close friends and starts to play low-key, and other investors who lose money are out of his mind.

　　币圈的春天来了吗？

　　过去一个月，比特币价格为何疯涨，是币圈回暖了吗？

Why did the price of Bitcoin so skyrocket in the past month?

　　北京金诚同达（上海）律师事务所从事区块链方面法律事务的张烽律师认为币圈是否回暖不好说，因为比特币的价格上涨有多重因素，最近一些应用方面的利好可能有影响，比如最近Facebook 和蚂蚁金服都提出了稳定币计划。

Mr. Zhang, who is involved in legal affairs in block chains at the Beijing law firm Kim-chung-da (Shanghai), argues that the currency ring is unheated because of the multiple factors behind the price increase in Bitcoin and the potential impact of some recent applications, such as the recent Facebook and ant gold suits, which have proposed a stabilization plan.

　　5月5日，Facebook完成对加密货币项目代号“Libra”商标的收购。Facebook稳定币项目代号为Project Libra。Facebook希望通过自己庞大的用户基础，加速推动其加密货币日常交易应用，并准备拉Visa和MasterCard这两个全球最大的信用卡支付公司入伙。

On May 5, Facebook completed the acquisition of the encrypt currency project code-named “Libra” trademark. The Facebook stabilization project is code-named Project Libra. Through its vast user base, Facebook hopes to speed up the day-to-day application of its encrypt currency transactions and prepare to join Visa and MasterCard, the largest credit card payers in the world.

　　5月7日，蚂蚁金服区块链部门负责人张辉在第三届“区块链商业峰会”演讲时提到，蚂蚁金服正在探索如何以“某种形式的代币”（some form of a token）在区块链上发行数字资产。这些资产会与实体世界的某些价值相互挂钩，例如法币或其它类型资产。

On May 7, Zhang Hui, the head of the sector of the ants’ gold garments chain, mentioned during the 3rd Block Chain Business Summit, that ants’ gold suits are exploring how to issue digital assets on the block chain in "some form of a token". These assets are linked to certain values of the real world, such as French or other types of assets.

　　也有行业人士表示，这两条信息对币圈的影响并没有那么直接，比如Facebook的稳定币和比特币等并不打通，只是和各国法币打通而已，而且这个信息也不是最近才出来。

It has also been suggested by industry that the impact of these two messages on the currency circle is not so direct, for example, Facebook’s stable currency and bitcoin are not connected, but only with national legal currencies, and this information is not recently available.

　　朱成林则认为，目前币圈很明显在回暖，因为目前各个国家的交易所交易量都比之前有所增加，而去年熊市后，各大机构都在自救，包含资本、媒体、项目方、交易所等。最近出现的IEO（Initial Exchange Offerings，首次交易发行，指以交易所为核心发行代币；代币跳过ICO这步，直接上线交易所）也带动了一波上涨，但由于IEO的热度已经结束，新的接力棒并未出现，因此他认为，这次回暖会很短暂，预计本月就会结束

According to Jochanglin, the currency circle is now clearly warming, as exchanges in various countries are now increasing more than before, and since Bear City last year, large institutions have been saving themselves, including capital, media, project players, exchanges, etc. The recent IEO (International Exchange Offices, the first issue of the deal is the exchange as the core issue of the currency; the currency skips the ICO, the direct-line exchange) has also led to a wave increase, but since the heat of the IEO has ended and the new baton has not appeared, he believes that the heat will be brief and that it is expected to end this month.

　　不过在朱成林看来，币圈真正的春天或者牛市并未到来，而本轮上涨的主要是主流数字货币，山寨币有少部分被行情带动略有回暖，但大部分山寨币都没有回暖。

However, according to Zhu Chenglin, the real spring or cow market did not arrive, and the rise in this round was mainly dominated by mainstream digital currencies, with a small portion of the mountain coins warmed up slightly, but most of them did not.

　　张烽提到，从中国监管方面来说，数字货币短期内还是以七部委九四公告为基本框架，近期的监管风险可能来自于整体性的金融监管环境的变化，另外今年4月9日发布的发改委《产业结构调整目录》将虚拟货币“挖矿活动”列入淘汰目录，目前尚未正式通过，但一旦通过以后，其具体影响还需要进一步观察；而在数字货币的监管没有成熟之前，很难有包含区块链和数字货币整体上的春天。

Zhang Jing mentioned that, in the short term, the digital currency is still the basic framework for China's regulation, and that the recent regulatory risks may stem from changes in the overall financial regulatory environment. Moreover, the IDB Catalogue of Industrial Structural Adjustments, published on 9 April this year, includes virtual currency “mining activities” in the phase-out list, which has not yet been formally adopted, but whose specific effects will need to be further observed once it is adopted; and that it is difficult to have spring springs containing block chains and digital currency as a whole until the regulation of digital currency is mature.

　　经历了漫长的等待后，陶南、吴迎春们都还在期待币圈春天的到来，但春天还要等多久没有人知道。

After a long wait, the Tonan and Wu Springers were still waiting for the currency to arrive in spring, but no one knew how long it would take.

　　（应受访者要求，郝铭、陶南、吴迎春、林飞为化名）全天候科技 杨泳洁（封面图自摄图网）

All-weather technology & nbsp; Yang Swimming (cover image self-recording network)

　　本文来自华尔街见闻

This is from an interview on Wall Street.

责任编辑：唐婧