根据研究与经纪商Bernstein分析师的说法，美国比特币现货ETF在今年第3季、第4季可望获得在大型经纪商、大型私人银行平台上核准交易，这将有助于促进比特币的广泛应用。分析师认为，目前市场正处于减半后的低迷阶段，牛市的“上半场”甚至还没结束，预期比特币明年底将飙升至20万美元。
According to the research and broker Bernstein analyst, the US-based spot ETF in Bitcoin is expected to obtain approval of transactions in the third and fourth quarters of this year on large brokers, large private banking platforms, which will help to promote widespread use of Bitcoin. According to analysts, the market is now at a low level after halving, with cattle & ldquo; first half of the game & rdquo; and even not yet finished, with bitcoin expected to rise to $200,000 by the end of next year.
根据研究与经纪商Bernstein分析师的说法，虽然比特币空头派主张，比特币现货ETF交易带来的题材已经“结束了”，但这个说法并未考量到两大关键因素。
According to the research and broker Bernstein analyst, although Bitcoin has argued that the issues brought about by the spot ETF transactions in Bitcoin have & ldquao; & rdquao has been closed; this statement does not take into account two key factors.
Bernstein分析师Gautam Chhugani、Mahika Sapra在周二写给客户的报告中表示，那些不看好比特币现货ETF交易的主张，主要是围绕在由散户投资者带动的早期配置，以及机构投资者的参与是局限在“现金与套利”交易，而非净多头部位，这代表ETF的资金流并非“实际”。
Bernstein analysts Gautam Chugani and Mahika Sapra, in a report to clients on Tuesday, stated that those claims that did not look at the Bitcoin spot ETF transactions were mainly centred around early configurations driven by bulk investors and that the involvement of institutional investors was limited to “ cash and arbitrage & rdquo; transactions, rather than net multi-headings, which represented ETF financial flows that were not & ldquo; actual & & rdquo;
比特币现货ETF题材未完待续
他们认为，近期13F投资报告显示，机构投资者在比特币现货ETF的参与比重仅22%，而且ETF推出后，芝商所比特币期货合约流动性的增加，就是上述这类“基差套利交易”的证据。
In their view, the recent 13F investment report showed that institutional investors had only 22 per cent of their participation in the spot ETF in Bitcoin, and the increased liquidity of the Bitcoin futures contracts following the introduction of the ETF was evidence of this type of & ldquao; base spread arbitrage & & rdquao;
然而，两位分析师表示，这些空头人士忽略了比特币现货ETF在今年第3季、第4季可望获得在大型经纪商、大型私人银行平台上核准交易的前景。这符合彭博社ETF分析师EricBalchunas和Bitwise资讯长MattHougan的看法。
However, two analysts say that these empty figures ignore the prospect that the Bitcoin spot ETF will be able to obtain approval of a transaction in the third and fourth quarters of this year on a large broker, a large private banking platform. This is in line with the views of the Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas and Bitwise Information Director MattHougan.
两位Bernstein分析师认为，从表面上来看，机构投资者的基差交易虽然是一种策略，但内在的影响可能会更大，最终有望促进比特币的广泛应用。这些投资者现在正评估“净多头”部位，因为他们乐见ETF流动性改善。
According to two Bernstein analysts, on the face of it, base-line transactions by institutional investors, although a strategy, may have a greater impact inherently, and may eventually contribute to the wider application of Bitcoin. These investors are now assessing “ net multi-head & rdquo; and location, as they are happy to see improved ETF liquidity.
“基差交易”是指机构投资者利用现货和期货价格之间的价差进行套利，也就是买进比特币现货ETF、同时卖出芝商所的比特币期货合约，目的是在期货合约到期时，从价差中套利。
& ldquo; base line transaction & rdquao; refers to institutional investors arbitrage using the difference between spot and futures prices, i.e. the purchase of the spot ETF in Bitcoin and the sale of the Bitcoin futures contract in which the futures contract is to be sold, with the aim of arbitrating the difference from the price difference when the futures contract expires.
报告指出：“我们认为“基差交易”主要是由避险基金推动，占机构投资者36%的配置。然而，我们跟参与比特币ETF的投资者聊过，基差交易之后的下一步是评估“做多”部位。”
The report states: & ldquo; we think & ldquo; base trade & rdquo; driven mainly by hedge funds, which account for 36% of institutional investors. However, we talked to investors involved in the Bitcoin ETF, and the next step after the base trade was to evaluate & & ldquao; do more & rdquo; do part. & & rdquo; & & rdquao; & & ;
“此外，配置给理专的才是真正的需求，13F报告显示，大多数中、小型理财顾问将他们投资组合的0.1%至0.3%分配给了比特币ETF。我们认为，成长将由核准ETF的大型理专以及现有投资组合中的大量配置空间所带动。“
& ldquo; in addition, the assignment to the LLP is the real need, and the 13F report shows that most small and medium-sized financial advisers allocated 0.1 to 0.3% of their portfolio to the Bitcoin ETF. We believe that growth will be driven by the approval of the ETF's large LLP and the large number of configuration spaces in the existing portfolio. & ldquo;
“比特币策略”加持
另一个因素是则是愈来愈多企业采用比特币作为储备资产，原因是美国新的会计指引将让企业更容易在资产负债表上持有数位资产，允许企业以市值来计算会计损益，而非仅仅是以资产减记的方式在资产负债表上持有比特币。分析师们表示：“我们预期2024年企业财库(对比特币)需求出现新的增加，目前是以MicroStrategy和比特币挖矿业者领导需求。”
Another factor is the increasing use of bitcoin as a reserve asset by businesses, as the new accounting guidelines in the United States will make it easier for businesses to hold several places on the balance sheet, allowing businesses to calculate accounting gains and losses at the market value rather than simply holding bitcoins on the balance sheet in the form of asset write-downs. Analysts say: “ we expect a new increase in demand for the corporate treasury in 2024, now led by MicroStrategy and Bitcoin miners; & & rdquao;
近期，金融服务的科技公司Block宣布在未来一年内，每月都会运用从比特币相关业务产生的净利来买进比特币。
In the near future, Block, a technology firm for financial services, announced that in the coming year, it would buy Bitcoin on a monthly basis with net profits from business related to Bitcoin.
虽然美国比特币现货ETF近来出现资金净流出，总额累计达7.144亿美元，但Bernstein分析师们预期，净资金流入将开始再度加速。他们表示：“我们预期比特币现货ETF的资金流入在第3、第4季将再度加速，而当前变动起伏的市场正提供了新的入场点，为机构需求的下一波增长做准备。从技术角度来看，如果比特币跌至50,000美元至60,000美元的范围，这将是有趣的入场点。”
Although there has recently been a net outflow of funds from the United States spotting ETF amounting to $714.4 million, Bernstein analysts expect that the net inflow will begin to accelerate again. They say: “ we expect that the inflow of funds from the spot trading ETF in Bitcoin will accelerate again in seasons 3 and 4, while the current volatile market is providing a new entry point to prepare for the next wave of growth in institutional demand. From a technical point of view, it would be interesting if Bitcoin fell to the range of $50,000 to $60,000. & & rdquao;
6万美元是“新底部”？
两位分析师重申比特币在2025年底将达20万美元的目标价，表示目前6万美元左右的比特币，就如同在2020年6月低于1万美元时的价格水平，目前市场正处于减半后的低迷阶段，牛市的“上半场”甚至还没结束。
Reiterating that Bitcoin would reach a target price of $200,000 by the end of 2025, the two analysts indicated that the current figure of about $60,000, just as it was at prices below $10,000 in June 2020, was now at a low stage of market & ldquao in the cattle market after halving; the first half of the game & rdquao; and it was not even over.
Bernstein分析师还预测，比特币到2029年底将达到50万美元，到2033年飙升至100万美元。
Bernstein analysts also projected that Bitcoin would reach $500,000 by the end of 2029 and surge to $1 million by 2033.
注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
发表评论