2020年1月3日，一架美国MQ-9“收割者”无人机在巴格达机场附近斩首伊朗三号人物苏莱曼尼。是日比特币应声大涨，截至发稿，已录得15%以上的涨幅。
On 3 January 2020, a U.S. MQ-9 “harvester” drone decapitated the Iranian figure No. 3, Suleimani, near Baghdad airport. It was the day that Bitcoin rose, recording an increase of more than 15 per cent as of the date of the release.
这两个事儿有关系吗？笔者认为，这两个事儿和卡巴斯基与巴基斯坦的关系极其相似——有个基巴关系，下面带您走近科学。
Is there a connection between these two things? I think that these two things are very similar to the relationship between Kabaski and Pakistan -- there's a Kiba relationship that brings you to science.
一、事实是什么？
What's the truth?
1、伊朗群众饭都吃不饱了，哪有空玩比特币。
1. There is no time to play bitcoin.
图自数据新闻平台“longhash”
Figure from data news platform “longhash”
2、伊朗群众即使了解比特币，也买不到比特币。
2. Even if the Iranian public knew bitcoin, it would not be possible to buy bitcoin.
伊朗是被制裁国家，不能用SWIFT，LocalBitcoins也被官方禁止了，没事还玩断网，普通人怎么买比特币？
Iran is a sanctioned country, cannot use SWIFT, and LocalBitcoins is officially banned, and the Internet is broken, so how can ordinary people buy bitcoins?
3、能买到比特币的也并没有加仓。
Three, the ones who can buy bitcoin are not stubble.
在突发事件后，当地比特币价格并没有什么特别的波动。网传比特币价格溢价3倍为谣言，事实上黑市美元（真实汇率）本来就相对于官方汇率溢价3倍。说明即使克服重重困难能买到比特币的那一小撮群众，也没有加仓。
In fact, the black market dollar (real exchange rate) is already three times higher than the official exchange rate. This suggests that even the small crowd of people who could afford to buy bitcoin over the odds has not been stoked.
图自微博“澳门玩币哥”
Image from Weibo, “Macao Monco”
二、逻辑是什么？
What's the logic?
1、在战乱状态下，比特币是一种特别糟糕的资产。
1. Bitcoin is a particularly bad asset in a state of war.
奥本海默基金公司老大李山泉在接受巴伦周刊的采访时聊到数字货币：“任何电子的东西都不能离开系统和载体，不能没有电力和网络，只有黄金离开任何载体还是黄金，你把它揣口袋里，带到哪儿去都行。”
The head of Oppenheimer Foundation, Lee Shanquan, talked about digital money in an interview with Barren Weekly: “No electronic thing can leave the system and the carrier, no electricity and no network, only gold can leave any carrier or gold, and you can take it in your pocket wherever you want.”
明白没有？去年11月伊朗为镇压全国反政府抗议活动，全境断网10来天。这还算“和平状态”了，真要来点“战争状态”，拿着比特币西北风都换不到，只有饿死一条路可走。
Do you understand? In November of last year, Iran shut down its entire network for more than 10 days in an attempt to suppress the national anti-government protests. This is a “state of peace” and a “state of war” that cannot be replaced by the north-west winds of Bitcoin, with only one way to go.
2、储值和战乱无相关性。
2. Storage values and war disturbances are irrelevant.
黄金是最好的例子：
Gold is the best example:
（1）大部分局部战乱，金价不涨反跌。
(1) Most local wars have been fought and the price of gold has fallen.
图自“国泰君安证券”
from
（2）海湾战争、伊拉克战争，金价毫无波动。
(2) The Gulf war, the Iraq war and the price of gold have not fluctuated.
不相关吧？
It doesn't matter, does it?
因为：
because:
（1）至少目前这个世界的本质是美元定价、美元结算。
(1) At least the essence of the world today is dollar pricing and dollar settlement.
（2）至少目前比特币本质是美元定价、结算的一种资产。
(2) At least currently Bitcoin is in essence an asset that is priced and settled in United States dollars.
（3）从储值的角度，比特币类似黄金，可以看做是美元信用体系的对标物。
(3) Bitcoin is similar to gold from the point of view of storage value and can be seen as a counterpart to the United States dollar credit system.
（4）对标有两个维度，一是对标通胀，二是对标美元信用的强弱。
(4) There are two dimensions to the mark, one for inflation and the other for the strength and weakness of the dollar credit.
所以：
So:
（1）其他法币崩盘对比特币影响不大，因为他们可以选择美元。
(1) Other French currency collapses have little effect on the comparison of the currency, as they can choose the United States dollar.
换个说法：如果一个国家很难换到美元，换到比特币只会更难。
To put it differently: if it is difficult for a country to trade for dollars, it will only be harder for bitcoin.
（2）只有影响美元信用的事件，才能在逻辑上影响比特币的价格。
(2) Only events that affect the credit of the United States dollar can logically affect the price of Bitcoin.
什么叫影响美元信用？举两个例子：
What do you mean, affect dollar credit? Take two examples:
例一：比特币诞生于08年金融危机。
Example one: Bitcoin was born in the financial crisis in 2008.
例二：石油危机影响美元-石油结算体系，造成美元信用不确定性。
Example 2: The oil crisis affected the dollar-oil settlement system, resulting in credit uncertainty in the dollar.
终上所述：
Endnote:
很多加密货币玩家老希望世界大乱，一会儿鑫又试射了，一会儿中东又干仗了，一会儿HK又乱了，好像世界一乱，自己就发财了。这种心态不仅逻辑错误，而且道德低级，我看恐怕是发不了财的。
A lot of crypto-currency players always wanted the world to be a mess, then tried again, then the Middle East started fighting again, and then the HK became a mess, like the world made a fortune. Not only was it a mistake of logic, but it was a low moral standard, and I don't think it was going to make a fortune.
我们不需要世界末日，
We don't need the end of the world, .
最好期待世界越来越好。
Better expect the world to get better.
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