智通财经APP获悉，周五纽约尾盘，CME比特币期货BTC主力合约涨2.88%，报39290.00美元，盘中交投于38045.00-39640.00美元区间。比特币价格在过去一个月上涨了9%，较上年同期翻了一番多。比特币正徘徊在18个月以来的高点，且似乎再次接近潜在的价格突破。
WikiLeaks has been informed by APP that the CME bitcoin futures BTC principal contract has increased by 2.88% on Friday's New York chassis, to $39,290.00, and that the plate was awarded to 38045.00 to $39,964.00.00. Bitcoin prices have risen by 9% over the past month, more than doubled over the same period last year. Bitcoins are hovering at 18 months of high and seem to be nearing a potential price breakthrough again.
比特币多头试图在2023年底最后一搏，对现货比特币ETF即将获得美国证券交易委员会(SEC)批准的炒作是比特币近期反弹的主要推动力之一。现货比特币ETF获批将使机构和散户投资者更容易接触到比特币，并增加对比特币的需求，这可能意味着比特币总市值有望增长数十亿美元。投资者们对美联储降息预期的升温也是比特币价格走高的推动力之一。
Bitcoin’s attempt to make a last run at the end of 2023 was one of the main drivers of Bitcoin’s recent rebound. The approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF would make it easier for institutions and bulk investors to reach bitcoin and increase the demand for bitcoin, which could mean that the total market value of bitcoins could increase by billions of dollars.
另外，投资者们甚至可能认为，美国司法部对加密货币交易所币安及其首席执行官赵长鹏的诉讼给加密市场带来了一定的清晰度，而这对比特币的价格有利。在加密货币交易所FTX创始人Sam Bankman-Fried、Terra创始人DoKwon以及已破产加密借贷平台Celsius前CEO Alex Mashinsky等人被捕后，加密货币投资者认为，潮水退去，不良行为者也被带走了，且现在数十亿美元的新ETF资金可能会到来。一些投资者认为，加密货币市场的牛市也会随之回归。
In addition, investors may even think that the US Department of Justice’s lawsuit against the crypto-currency exchange’s currency and its chief executive officer, Zhao Changping, has brought some clarity to the encryption market, and that the price of the bitcoin is favourable. After the arrests of Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of the crypto-currency exchange’s FTX, DoKwon, founder of Terra, and CEO Alex Mashinsky, ex-Celsius, the bankrupt encryption lending platform, some investors believe that the tide is back, the bad actors are taken away, and billions of dollars of new ETF funds are likely to arrive.
不过，对比特币等加密货币前景持怀疑态度的市场人士表示，考虑到北美投资者对已经可以通过加拿大市场购买的三只现货比特币ETF的兴趣相对较小，尚不清楚SEC批准现货比特币ETF是否真的会起到推动作用。
However, skeptical marketers, such as Bitcoin, expressed the view that, given the relatively small interest of North American investors in the three spot bitcoin ETFs that had already been purchased through the Canadian market, it was not clear whether SEC approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF would really be a catalyst.
一批新的现货比特币ETF甚至可能对比特币价格不利，尤其是如果灰度比特币信托(GBTC)的市场被贝莱德、富达这些华尔街巨头夺去的话。摩根大通分析师Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou估计，可能有多达27亿美元的资金流出GBTC，并可能在市场上被抛售。
A new batch of off-the-shelf bitcoin ETFs may even be counterproductive to bitcoin prices, especially if the market of the Greytime Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is taken away by the Wall Street giants of Belede, Fuda. Morgan Chase analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou estimates that up to $2.7 billion may have flowed out of the GBTC and may have been sold out of the market.
按照某些定义，比特币的熊市已经结束，但这并不意味着新一轮牛市的开始。虽然势头确实很重要，但如果比特币在11月上涨，它同样能够在12月上涨吗?
By some definitions, the bear city of Bitcoin is over, but that does not mean the start of a new round of cattle. While momentum is really important, can it also rise in December if Bitcoin rises in November?
TradingView的数据显示，在比特币13年的历史中，12月的价格走势有10次与11月的价格走势重合，重合率为77%。这比整体月份的情况更为常见：在有记录的170个月中，有94个月的价格走势与前一个月一致，重合率为56%。
考虑到样本量较小，所有这些可能在统计上都不重要。但考虑到已经经历过的加密市场寒冬，投资者们可能最终会得到他们想要的结果。
Given the small sample size, all of this may not be statistically important. But given the cold winters of the encrypted market that have already been experienced, investors may eventually get what they want.
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