近年来虚拟货币发展迅速，成为资本市场竞相追逐的新兴投资标的，二级市场上的价格走势如同过山车，让参与者们无不感觉心惊肉跳惊险刺激。本文立足货币发展史和现代信用货币体系对虚拟货币进行解读，以期提供一个认识此类金融业态的新视角。
Virtual currencies have grown rapidly in recent years, becoming the subject of new and competing capital markets, and prices in second-tier markets have moved as fast as in mountain cars, giving participants a sense of shock and shock. This paper interprets virtual currencies in the light of the history of monetary development and modern credit-currency systems, with a view to providing a new perspective on how to appreciate such financial practices.
1、虚拟货币是现代意义上的货币吗？
1. Is virtual currency a currency in the modern sense?
虚拟货币是由私人部门发行，在局部可以自有的记账单位，主要包括加密代币和积分代币。前者包括不存在信用发行主体，而是采用区块链等特定加密技术发行的虚拟商品，例如Bit Coin、莱特币等，或者是通过首次代币融资（ICO）形成的中心化数字货币及其代币等。后者是由特定私人信用主体发行的在特点场景下使用的电子支付手段，产生方式包括商家返利积分、折扣券、代金券等多种形态，例如淘宝积分、Q币、论坛币等。
Virtual currencies are issued by the private sector, with local self-contained units of account, including mainly encrypted tokens. The former include virtual goods that do not exist as credit issuers, but are issued using specific encryption techniques such as block chains, such as Bit Coin, Leiteco, etc., or centralized digital currencies and their tokens through first-time indentation financing (ICO). The latter are electronic means of payment issued by specific private credit subjects in a feature setting, generated in a variety of forms, such as business-to-business credits, discount vouchers, vouchers, etc.
对于第一类虚拟货币，它由市场或互联网上掌握某种算法的人开发出来，从物质本身来看，可以将它们看成是一种去中心化的电子数据。回顾实物货币演变历程能够发现，人类在漫长的文明史中从众多实物中仅遴选出几种物质作为货币的替代物，这种实物货币演变过程经历着对实物的便捷性、安全性和保值性要求的不断提升。同样的，在诸多算法下得到的不同加密代币最终也将在这三个层面中竞争以期达成一种收敛的结果，然而最终能否实现收敛长期以来是存疑的，即便实现收敛，最后落脚到哪一种电子数据之上存在巨大的不确定性。只有当该电子数据在社会中达成共识之后，人们才会普遍认可这种支付手段。对于第二类虚拟货币，它存在一个具象化的发行主体，其支付功能可以获得发行主体的信用保障，在特定的场景中扮演着“等价物”的角色。当人们为了突出这一特性时就将它们命名为“某币”，但是放在全市场场景中来看，它与“一般等价物”相去甚远，仅仅是法定货币在特定交易场所中的替代物，与实体经济中商家提供的代金券和购物卡没有差异，从该角度来看它们应该被命名为“某电子代金券”。
In the case of the first type of virtual currency, it is developed by people who have some algorithms in the market or on the Internet, and the material itself can be seen as decentralised electronic data. A review of the history of physical currency evolution reveals that humans have selected only a few substances from many objects in the long history of civilization as substitutes for money, a means of payment that is generally accepted only after social consensus has been reached. In the case of the second type of virtual currency, it has a visual issuer whose payment function can be secured by the credit of the issuer and whose role in a particular scenario is to achieve a “quiet” outcome. However, when it is possible to highlight this feature, it is named “a currency” even if it is finally left behind, but it is generally accepted as a means of payment.
实物货币演变历程告诉我们，最终被接受的“一般等价物”需要具备便捷性、安全性、稳定性和保值性，于是经历了从化学活性较高的铁铜转向化学活性较低的黄金。但是随着现代市场经济的建立，信用货币体系已然替代了实物货币体系，成为现代货币体系的基石，其运行的逻辑在于以一国货币发行当局的信用为基石，然后在商业银行体系中实现货币派生，从而内生形成广义货币。以此来对照虚拟货币，第一类虚拟货币迄今并没有自发形成货币派生功能，市场上暂时还未出现“虚拟货币”银行；第二类虚拟货币存在货币派生的基础，因为从该货币发行角度来看，发行主体相当于该虚拟货币的“中央银行”，该“中央银行”有能力不断的发行货币，但是其边界在于该平台自身规模和信用。由此可见，第二类虚拟货币发行与现代货币体系的运行有类似之处，区别在于该虚拟货币的应用场景十分狭小，基本围绕虚拟货币发行平台展开，而现实中的一国央行发行的法定货币能在经济体内的任何环境中使用。从历史演变角度分析，虚拟货币并不能充当市场经济体系中的货币。
But, with the establishment of a modern market economy, the credit-currency system has replaced the physical monetary system as the cornerstone of the modern monetary system, the logic of which operates on the basis of the credit of the monetary issuing authority of a country, and then on the basis of monetary derivatives in a commercial banking system, thus creating a broad currency. In contrast to the virtual currency, the first type of virtual currency has so far not developed autonomously into a monetary derivative, and there is a temporary “virtual currency” bank in the market; the second type of virtual currency has a monetary derivative base, since, from the point of view of the currency distribution, the issuer is the “central bank” of the virtual currency, which has the capacity to issue the currency continuously, but whose boundaries lie in the size and credit of the platform itself, so that the second type of virtual currency issuance has a similarity to the operation of the modern monetary system.
2.虚拟货币作为“一般等价物”的不足之处
Deficiencies of virtual currencies as “general equivalents”
虚拟货币虽然不是现代意义下的货币，但是可能会存有部分货币功能，例如计价、支付、贮藏等，这也是人们对其存在无限想象空间的原因。从市场认可度最高的Bit Coin来看，它在局部网络社区中充当了“等价物”，部分网络交易认可其作为支付手段，尤其是在去年5月网络上爆发的“蠕虫病毒”事件中，Bit Coin正式走入大众视野，届时人们只能用Bit Coin的支付才能解决“病毒”的困扰，相当于用Bit Coin购买了一次“杀毒”服务，这正是虚拟货币作为支付手段的现实运用。“蠕虫病毒”事件提高了Bit Coin的知名度，其价格在全球范围内迭创新高，然而Bit Coin等第一类虚拟货币的内在价值是值得深入剖析的。它在网络上能否充当“一般等价物”还面临诸多考验，接下来以Bit Coin为例从三方面对其进行分析：
Virtual currency, although not a currency in the modern sense, may have some monetary functions, such as billing, payment, storage, and so on, which is why there is unlimited room for imagination. According to Bit Coin, which has the highest market recognition, it acts as an “equivalency” in the local network community. Some of the Internet transactions recognized it as a means of payment, particularly in the case of the worm virus that broke out on the Internet last May. Bit Coin was officially in the public domain, when Bit Coin’s payment was the only solution to the “virus” problem, amounting to the purchase of a “drug-killing” service by Bit Coin, which was used as a practical means of payment.
（1）算法是否具有安全性
(1) Whether algorithms are secure
计算机和网络世界受制于硬件和软件的效率，硬件的更新迭代能够提高单位体积内的运算速度，软件运行效率的提升更多是算法的更新。Bit Coin是一种去中心化、由计算机专业人士开发算法计算得到的特定数字，现在人们将Bit Coin的安全性构建在区块链技术之上，但是随着计算机算法的更新迭代，这种技术是否存在漏洞，当该技术无法保障Bit Coin的存储安全性时，Bit Coin距离社会性的普遍接受还有很长一段路要走。如何保证已被挖掘出的数字在未来不会被其他算法给盗取和破解，这是期望Bit Coin扮演一般等价物的之前首要解决的问题。如果Bit Coin的安全性不能完全被保障，那么它就不具备被人们广泛接受的初始条件。市场甚至可能出现某一类市场认可度较低的数字货币持有人对认可度较高的数字货币进行攻击，通过降低某些货币的安全性来改变市场的焦点，因此去中心化数字货币将长期面临着技术风险和收敛结果不确定的风险。
The computer and network world is constrained by the efficiency of hardware and software, the upgrading of hardware can increase the speed of computing within the size of the unit, and the efficiency of the operation of software is much more of an update of algorithms. Bit Coin is a specific figure that has been decentralized and is calculated by computer professionals, and now the security of Bit Coin is built on block-chain technology, but, with the replacement of computer algorithms, there is no gap in that technology, and Bit Coin may have a long way to go when it does not guarantee the security of Bit Coin’s storage in a society. How to ensure that excavated figures will not be stolen and decoded in the future by other algorithms, is the primary problem before Bit Coin is expected to play a generic value. If Bit Coin’s security is not fully safeguarded, it will not have the initial conditions that are widely accepted.
（2）算法是否具有可替代性
(2) Whether algorithms are alternative
第二类风险在于Bit Coin是否存在替代物，除了名气最大的Bit Coin之外，市场上还有名目繁多的“加密代币产品”，它们同样在局部市场上发挥着“等价物”的功能，且其市场价格也出现了阶段性的波动，我们无法保证当人们将目光聚焦在另一种加密代币之上，其“等价物”的功能将会被更广泛的网络交易者所接受，此时将会取代之前被关注的Bit Coin。替代物的产生会使得Bit Coin快速贬值，从而会加剧该电子资产市场价格的踩踏式下跌。“加密代币产品”存在的潜在可替代性将会加剧它自身市场价格的波动。
The second type of risk is the existence of alternatives in Bit Coin, which, in addition to the most famous Bit Coin, are well-known “encrypted currency products” in the market, which also function as “equivalencies” in local markets, as well as periodic fluctuations in market prices. We cannot guarantee that, when people focus on another type of encrypted currency, its “equivalencies” function will be accepted by a wider network of traders and will replace the previously noted Bit Coin.
（3）作为货币是否能够稳定交易过程中的价格
(3) Whether or not a currency can stabilize prices in the course of a transaction
从目前的市场行情来看，Bit Coin的价格波动十分剧烈，俨然成为投机者的竞技场。当人们将注意力投射到某一种虚拟货币之上，由于不存在涨跌幅限制，其价格在较短时间内就会快速上升，而一旦市场上蔓延当局即将加强监管，其价格急速暴跌。一种物质成为“一般等价物”的关键在于该物质价格的稳定，在实物货币体系中，其演变逻辑就在于此，现代信用货币体系的中央银行更重要的任务在于维持一国币值和国内物价的稳定，从而起到稳定市场预期缓解经济波动的目的。然而，第一类虚拟货币无论从潜在可替代性上，还是从已走出的市场行情来看，其价格都极其不稳定，当互联网“货币”普遍面临这一问题时，那所有“加密代币产品”都无法实现稳定物价的目的，如若将其作为一般等价物必将引发宏观经济的剧烈波动。由此可见，第一类虚拟货币并不能实现价值稳定的目标，这使其难以成为被广泛认可的“一般等价物”。
In view of the current market situation, Bit Coin’s price volatility is so sharp that it becomes a arena for speculators. When attention is focused on a virtual currency, prices will rise rapidly in a relatively short period of time, in the absence of any restriction on escalation or decline, and its prices will fall sharply as soon as the market spreads. The key to a substance becoming “general equivalent” is the stability of the price of the substance, which in the case of a monetary system in kind, the central bank of a modern credit monetary system would be more important if it were to maintain the stability of a country’s currency and domestic prices, thus serving the objective of stabilizing the market’s expected economic volatility.
对于第二类虚拟货币而言，由于诞生于具有信用的发行主体上，其市场价格较少受到二级市场的干扰，与第一类虚拟货币相比更为稳定。但是它的不足之处在于，这一类虚拟货币的运用场景有限，难以成为真正意义上的“一般等价物”。不过随着网络商贸的普及，第二类虚拟货币呈现出与实体经济高度融合、深度渗透的趋势，一部分互联网积分已具有普遍接受、跨界交易、集中清算的特点。虽然其涉及领域相较于整个经济体还十分小，无法对信用货币体系造成威胁，但是随着“互联网+”的深入发展，这种虚拟货币最终会向何处演变值得持续关注，因为其中可能蕴含信用扩张、货币发行的功能，存在冲击现代货币的潜在可能性。
For the second type of virtual currency, market prices are more stable than for the second category, because they are less disturbed by secondary markets, born in credit-bearing issuers. But its weakness is that the use of this type of virtual currency is limited, making it difficult to become a “general equivalent” in the true sense. However, with the spread of online commerce, the second type of virtual currency presents a trend towards a high degree of integration with the real economy, deep penetration, and a part of the Internet is already characterized by generally acceptable, cross-border transactions, and centralized liquidations.
迄今看来，如若将信用的广泛认可度和支付使用范围的全社会化统一起来，这种形式的货币最终将会收敛至法定货币，换言之法定货币是货币市场上的稳态解。
To date, it appears that if the broad recognition of credit and the socialization of the use of payments were brought together, this form of currency would eventually be absorbed into the legal currency, in other words, a stable solution in the currency market.
3. 应当对虚拟货币加强监管
3. The regulation of virtual currencies should be strengthened
虚拟货币本身并非新生事物，但是在最近一年多的时间里受到了前所未有的关注，众多投资者参与其中，从而产生了覆盖面较广、波及人群较多的社会效应。对于这种外部效应，政府部门应当加强监管以遏制负外部性的扩散，并争取激发正外部性的传播。基于上述分析，我们不能对虚拟货币一刀切式的全盘否定，而应当从结构性的角度出发，认识到其中的优劣，然后制定出相应的监管措施。
For such externalities, government departments should strengthen regulation to curb negative externalities and seek to stimulate positive externalities. On the basis of the above analysis, we cannot reject virtual currencies in their entirety in a one-size-fits-all manner, but should recognize their advantages and disadvantages from a structural perspective and develop appropriate regulatory measures.
（1）严厉打击诈骗行为，加强对市场投机行为的监管
(1) Tightening the fight against fraud and strengthening the regulation of market speculation
由于第一类加密数字货币及其代币在市场上具有严重的信息不对称，其发行者和交易场所的真实属性难以被投资者认知，为非法集资、金融诈骗、洗钱行为等违法犯罪活动提供了藏匿所，这些行为严重侵害了金融消费者的权益。由于互联网的扩散效应，容易引发群体事件，对于此类行为应当加强监管、严厉打击。
Because of the serious information asymmetries in the market of the first type of encrypted digital currency and its tokens, it is difficult for investors to recognize the true attributes of their issuers and trading sites, providing a safe haven for illegal criminal activities such as the collection of funds, financial fraud, money-laundering, etc., which seriously infringes the rights and interests of financial consumers. The proliferation of the Internet makes them vulnerable to mass events, which should be regulated and severely combated.
对于真实存在的虚拟货币及其交易行为，需要杜绝发行者和交易平台的合谋，防止合谋者进行价格操作等扰乱市场交易的行为。有效监管方案可以参考股票市场监管措施，强化发行者和交易平台的信息披露意愿，缓解信息不对称现象，有利于市场的价格发现。
Effective regulation programmes can refer to stock market regulations, enhance the willingness of issuers and trading platforms to disclose information, mitigate information asymmetries, and facilitate market price discovery.
（2）对合法的局部场景交易持有审慎通融态度
(2) Prudence and accommodation with regard to legitimate local scene trading
对于真实存在且合规的第一类虚拟货币及其交易，以及有利于企业提高生产效率过程中形成的第二类虚拟货币，政府部门可以持有包容的态度。一方面，责令虚拟货币发行主体进行报备和定期信息披露，让其行走在合法合规的道路上；另一方面，研判此类新型金融创新是否有效提高经济效率，同时货币当局是否能够参与其中提高货币政策的事实效率。对于在此过程中形成的信用扩张和货币创造应当进行持续追踪，以防范系统性金融风险的积累和爆发。
On the one hand, the issuers of the virtual currency are required to report and regularly disclose information on the path to legal compliance; on the other hand, to examine whether such new financial innovations have been effective in improving economic efficiency, and whether monetary authorities have been involved in increasing the efficiency of monetary policy. Credit expansion and currency creation in this process should be followed up on an ongoing basis to prevent the accumulation and outbreak of systemic financial risks.
作者简介：
Author's Introduction:
张泽华 ，百舸金融论坛联合发起人，武汉大学金融学博士，专注货币经济学理论研究。
Zhang Zehua, co-sponsor of the 100-year Financial Forum, Ph.D. in Finance, Wuhan University, focused on theoretical research in monetary economics.
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