中國銀行北京市分行外匯交易員 馬冰清
市場摘要
Market Summary
昨日美元指數連續上漲，創一周新高至91.05，收報90.91。歐元兌美元下跌0.56%，收報1.2039；英鎊兌美元小幅回落，收報1.3863；澳元兌美元持穩于0.77上方，昨日收報0.7751；美元兌加元小幅上漲0.09%報1.2702；避險資產方面，美元兌日元站上106關口后小幅回落，收報105.8650；現貨黃金連跌五日，昨日收報在1775美元/盎司。
Yesterday, the dollar bill rose continuously, rising from 91.05 to 90.91 per week. The euro dollar fell by 0.56 per cent, receiving 1.2039; the pound dollar fell slightly, receiving 1.386363; the Australian dollar remained stable above 0.7751 yesterday; the dollar bill rose by 0.09 per cent to 1.2702 per cent; in the case of risk-free property, the dollar fell by 105.865 per cent after the 106th closure of the yen station; and the cash gold fell by five days, and yesterday was received at $1775 per ounce.
美元
USD
2月以來，美元指數自90.55一帶開盤后便開啟了震蕩走勢，近期受到美債收益率走高的影響，美元指數自三周的低點反彈，目前持穩于90上方。
Since February, the United States dollar index, which has been active since the start of the 90.55 season, has recently been affected by the high rate of return on United States debt, and has rebounded from a low of three weeks and is now stable above 90.
通脹預期和風險情緒變化是影響美元走勢的主導因素。近期美元上漲主要得益于通脹預期下，美債收益率走升帶來的影響。近日受寒冷天氣和中東地緣局勢緊張的影響，美國原油產量銳減，油價探底回升，布油刷新13個月高位，能源成本上升在一定程度上加劇了通脹預期，助推美債收益率上漲，美元從中受益。此外，新冠疫苗順利接種及美國大規模刺激措施落地也提振了經濟復蘇的前景，使得通脹疑慮升溫，衡量通脹預期的盈虧平衡通脹率更是達到2013年以來的最高水平。受此影響，美債長端收益率大漲，10年期美債收益率一度突破1.32%，刷新了2020年2月以來的高位，為美元上行增添動力。不過，一旦全球復蘇進入到更穩健的階段，在樂觀情緒的帶動下，風險資產會更加受到青睞，不利于美元的后市走高。今年以來，在寬松政策的助力下，各類資產價格飆升，全球股市市值已增加7萬億美元，比特幣挑戰50000美元歷史新高，伴隨著經濟穩健恢復和風險情緒回暖，避險美元或將重回弱勢態勢。
The recent upturn in the dollar has largely benefited from the impact of rising rates of return on US debt in the run-up to the boom. Recent years have been affected by the cold weather and the tense situation in the Middle East, a sharp decline in US crude oil production, a fall in oil prices, a new 13-month rise in oil prices, an increase in the cost of energy in part in the run-up, a rise in the yield on US debt over 10 years, an increase of 1.32 per cent in the yield on US debt, a rise in the price of new crown vaccines and a fall in US stimulus in February 2020, have also boosted prospects for economic recovery.
技術上看，美元指數在布林通道上軌91.4一帶面臨較大阻力，預計短期內美指將跟隨風險情緒的變化低位震蕩，建議投資人在回調時做空為主，可在阻力位附近買出美元，下方目標位看向前期低點89.2。
Technically, the dollar index is facing greater resistance along the road of 91.4 in the Bremen Passage, predicting a short-term low-altitude shock that will follow a change in the mood of risk, suggesting that investors should be mostly empty at the time of the return, that they can buy the dollar near the resistance position, and that the lower target is lower than 89.2 per cent in the future.
英鎊
£/strong
2月以來，受美元走弱和疫情緩解的影響，英鎊兌美元自1.37一帶開盤后震蕩上行，本周持續走高創近三年以來新高至1.3952；昨日承壓小幅回落，目前交投于1.38一線。
Since February, as a result of the weakening of the dollar and the easing of the epidemic, the pound dollar has gone up from 1.37 to 1.3952 years after the beginning of the week; it is now on the 1.38 line, after a small fall yesterday.
負利率預期淡化、疫苗加快接種、經濟穩步復蘇等因素共同主導了本輪英鎊走高。本月月初英國央行曾明確表示，2021年不會引入負利率政策，偏鷹派的表述淡化了進一步放寬貨幣政策的預期，英鎊因此受到提振。從疫情防控進程來看，近期疫苗領先接種、確診病例下降為英鎊走升提供支撐。2月15日，英國政府已經承諾將逐步放松封鎖，市場預期經濟恢復將穩步推進，風險偏好回暖使得英鎊持續上漲，在2月16日刷新了32個月以來的新高至1.3952。從英國基本面表現來看，2020年第四季度英國經濟好于預期，市場預計隨著經濟活動恢復和家庭財務狀況改善，消費支出將迎來顯著反彈，助力英鎊進一步走高。
At the beginning of this month, the British Central Bank made it clear that negative interest rate policies would not be introduced in 2021, and that the rhetoric of the eagles had diluted expectations for further monetary expansion, and that the pound had been boosted as a result. From the epidemic’s control process, vaccines had recently declined to provide support for £ upgrading. On February 15, the British government had promised a gradual easing of lockdowns, and the expected recovery of the market’s economy was expected to accelerate.
技術面上，從日線級別圖形來看，英鎊兌美元已站上所有均線上方，短期內需警惕回調風險，長期看整體上漲勢頭依然穩健，建議較長期限投資者可逢低做多英鎊兌美元，第一目標位看向1.4整數關口，進一步看向1.42一線。
At the technical level, the dollar has been placed above all mean lines from the Japanese line, requiring vigilance and risk management in the short term. The overall upward trend is still stable in the long run. It is recommended that investors with longer-term deadlines be given a lot of dollars, with the first target at the 1.4 integer level and step up to the 1.42 line.
僅為個人觀點，不代表所在機構觀點
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