比特币是货币吗?到底凝聚了什么样的价值共识?

资讯 2024-07-14 阅读:48 评论:0
来源:雪球App,作者: 戴国俊-理财顾问,(https://xueqiu.com/9842287520/173739809) 1.石头币的故事货币相关书籍里都会介绍的经典案例。There are classic cases in...
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1.石头币的故事

货币相关书籍里都会介绍的经典案例。

There are classic cases in money-related books.

美国的人类学家威廉.亨利.弗内斯(William Henry Furness)在1910年出版的一本书叫《石币之岛》,上面记载了在南太平洋地区,离菲律宾不远,有个与世隔绝的小岛,叫做雅浦岛。

An anthropologist in the United States, William Henry Furness, published in 1910 a book called The Island of Stones , which describes a small isolated island in the South Pacific, not far from the Philippines, called Yap Island.

在这个原始小部落里,有一种非常特殊的货币——石头币。而且石头币有各种大小,最大的直径能有三四米,而小的只有三四厘米。石头币的大小、重量和保存的历史年限,也决定了它具体的价值有多少,能换来多少东西。

In this original small tribe, there is a very special currency — stone coins — and stone coins of all sizes, with a maximum diameter of three or four metres, and small ones of only three or four centimetres. The size, weight, and historical years of preservation of stone coins also determine how much they are worth and how much they can be replaced.

可以想象,移动石头币是一件非常费劲的事情。所以大家在雅浦岛上交易的时候,基本是不用把石头搬来搬去的。需要做的就是——记账。

As you can imagine, moving stone coins is a very hard thing to do. So when you're dealing on Yap Island, you don't have to move the stones around. All you need to do is keep the books.

那么这样持续地记下去会发生什么呢?就是整个雅浦岛的交易活动,实际上变成了一个大账本。

So what happens if you keep going on like this? It's the whole Yap Island deal, which turns into a big book of accounts.

这个大账本时刻都在记录各种经济活动的发生。而在这个过程里,那些石头币其实一直放在那儿,只是所有权不断地被转移,而整个小岛的货币系统运转得可以非常良好。

This big account book records all kinds of economic activity at all times. In this process, the stone coins have been kept there, but ownership is constantly being transferred, and the entire island’s monetary system is working very well.

更有意思的是,岛上有户人家,祖先曾得到一枚巨大的石头币,但在运回雅浦岛途中遇到了海难,石头沉到了大海。但是由于见证者很多,当地的居民仍然相信,虽然石头从物理上来说已经找不到了,但是这户人家依然拥有这枚石币代表的价值,他们还是可以用这枚虚拟的石头币来购买各种物资。具体的买卖依旧是记在大家的账本上。

Even more interesting is the fact that there is a family on the island, whose ancestors were given a huge stone coin, but on their way back to Yap Island, the stones sank to the sea. But, because of the number of witnesses, the local population still believes that, while the stones are physically untraceable, the family still has the value of the stone, and that they can purchase the goods with this virtual stone coin.

参考文献:数字货币:货币革命进行时,[美] 尼尔·梅塔 等著

References: Digital currencies: [US] & nbsp; Neil Meta & nbsp; wait

图片来源:得到app《张潇雨·个人投资课》

Source: App. Jang Rain's Personal Investment Course.

这个例子说明了一个很重要的问题:

This example illustrates a very important issue:

货币本质是一种关于价值的共识,而货币的流通就是一种记账方式而已。

The nature of money is a consensus on the value of and the circulation of money is simply a way of accounting.

既然货币是一种关于价值的共识,那为了取得这个共识,这个价值必须是稳定的。

Since currency is a consensus on values, in order to achieve that consensus, this value must be stable.

比如说像金银、贵金属,还有这个石灰岩,都是用稀缺来保证它们价值的稳定性。

Like gold, silver, precious metals, and this limestone, for example, use scarcity to ensure the stability of their value.

那么现代的主权信用货币,比如人民币、美元,是怎么来保证价值稳定的呢?靠一个国家的政府信用、政治稳定、经济增长,还有相应的货币制度。

How can modern sovereign credit currencies, such as the renminbi, the dollar, guarantee value stability? It is the credit of a government, political stability, economic growth, and the corresponding monetary system.

2.什么是货币?

那么,到底什么是“货币”呢?

So, what exactly is a “currency”?

经济学家对这个问题的标准回答是,货币要达到三个目的:

The standard answer of economists to this question is that the currency has three objectives:

流通手段:货币是一种交换媒介,可以用它进行任何交易。

Means of communication: Money is a medium of exchange that can be used for any transaction.

价值尺度:货币是一个记账单位,可以用数字来衡量人们的财富。

Value scale: Currency is a unit of account in which people's wealth can be measured by numbers.

储藏手段:货币是一种价值储存手段,能够在很长一段时间内保持其价值。

Storage means: Currency is a storage tool for values that can be maintained over a long period of time.

货币的核心作用就是润滑商品经济的发展,货币形态的历史演变都是三大功能的改良,从贝壳到纸币,流通越来越便利,价值尺度越来越标准,储藏越来越方便。不论如何,任何货币形态最起码都得满足货币的三大功能。

The central role of money is the development of the lubricating commodity economy, and the historical evolution of currency patterns is an improvement in three main functions, from

3.比特币是货币吗?

首先来看流通手段,互联网技术的诞生解决了全球信息几乎无成本、实时的传播,区块链技术的诞生正在解决全球资本几乎无成本、实时的流动。

The birth of Internet technology, starting with the means of communication, addressed the near-cost, real-time dissemination of global information, and the emergence of block-chain technology was addressing the almost cost-free, real-time flow of global capital.

比特币作为区块链技术的第一个应用,很好的解决了资本在全球几乎无成本流动的问题,而且比特币去中心化、不可篡改的特点,保证了比特币不会出现假币。

Bitcoin, as the first application of block chain technology, is a good solution to the almost cost-free flow of capital around the world, and the centralization of bitcoin and its indefensible character guarantee that bitcoin will not be counterfeited.

但是比特币为了解决去中心化节点如何达成共识的问题(拜占庭将军问题),采用了工作量证明的机制(PoW),每笔交易至少需要10分钟确认一个区块,大额交易为了保险起见、需要确认六个区块,那就得一个小时。

However, in order to resolve the question of how to reach a consensus on decentralised nodes (the Byzantine General's question) , Bitcoin used the workload proof mechanism (PoW) >, which required at least 10 minutes to identify a block for each transaction, and one hour for a large deal to identify six blocks for insurance purposes.

虽然已经大大提高了资本全球转移的效率,但是要做到高并发、实时结算,还需要底层机制的改进。

While the efficiency of the global transfer of capital had been greatly improved, improvements in bottom-level mechanisms were needed to achieve high-speed, real-time settlements.

其次看价值尺度,比特币最小可以细分到小数点后8位小数(聪),从程序上设定每10分钟产生一个区块,每个区块发行50个比特币(矿工奖励),每21万个区块后,差不多每4年,区块发行的比特币奖励减半,按此推算,比特币到达恒定产量2100万枚的时间预计是2140年

Next to the value scale, bitcoin can be broken down as little as eight decimal decimal places (hear) , which is programmed to produce a block every 10 minutes, with 50 bitcoins per block (miners' incentive) issued, approximately half the bitcoin awards issued every 4 years after each of 210,000 blocks, so that the expected time for Bitcoin to reach a constant yield of 21 million is 2140 .

比特币从程序上严格设定为不会超发,没有通货膨胀,但是其自身的价格不够稳定,暴涨暴跌,所以比特币很难承担价值尺度的功能,因为这把尺子本身忽长忽短。

Bitcoin is strictly programmed to be non-exceeding and non-inflationary, but its own prices are not stable enough to soar and fall so sharply that it is difficult for Bitcoin to assume the function of a value scale, as it causes the ruler itself to grow short.

最后看储藏手段,比特币在储存财富方面具有天然优势,匿名、分布式存储、不可篡改,只要互联网不是瞬间全部完蛋,只要有一个节点还在,那这个账本就是完整的,每个人的比特币财富都不会消失。只要保护好自己的私钥,储存的财富就是绝对安全的。

Last look at the storage means, bitcoin has a natural advantage in storing wealth, is anonymous, distributed, and cannot be tampered with, as long as the Internet is not completely destroyed in an instant, and as long as there is one node, the account book is complete, and everyone's Bitcoin wealth will not disappear. As long as the private key is protected, the wealth stored is absolutely safe.

但是,因为比特币价格的高波动性,一般人很难拿得住比特币,就是人们常说的:守币比守寡难。

But because of the high volatility of bitcoin prices, it's hard for ordinary people to hold bitcoin, as is often said: currency defense is more difficult than widowhood.

综上所述,以目前货币的三大功能来衡量比特币,比特币虽然具有一定的货币特性,但是它现在不能很好地完成所有的货币功能,所以,很难在普适意义上把它称为通用货币。

In the light of the foregoing, it is difficult to describe a currency as a universal currency in a generic sense, as measured by the three main functions of the current currency, which, although it has a certain monetary character, does not perform all monetary functions well at the present time.

那比特币到底是什么呢?我比较认可的是李笑来在“BOX定投践行群”授课中提到的观点:

What about the bitcoin? I'm more inclined to agree with Li's point of view in the course of the "BOX Driving Group" /b:

如果把比特币看做一家“世界银行”,BTC可以看做是它发行的货币,又或是发行的股票,那么衡量这家“世界银行”的价值和互联网公司没多大区别。它的价值和用户数量是紧密相关的,比如说日活、月活数量、用户增长率、用户留存率等等。

If Bitcoin is regarded as a “World Bank” and BTC can be seen as the currency it issues, or as a stock issue, then the value of this “World Bank” is not so different from that of an Internet company. Its value is closely related to the number of users, such as daily, monthly, user growth rates, and retention rates.

4.比特币凝聚了什么样的价值共识

1)价值存储

1) Value storage

在比特币发明以前,对所有的货币形式来说,它们的数量都是无限的,因此,长期保值方面都不完美。比特币纯粹以数字形态存在,达成了严格的稀缺性,在此之前,任何货币的可分割性和便携性都未曾达到比特币的水平。

Prior to Bitcoin’s invention, their numbers were unlimited for all monetary forms, so long-term preservation was imperfect. Bitcoins existed in purely digital form, and strict scarcity was achieved, before any currency was divided and portability did not reach bitcoin levels.

比特币不可更改的货币供给政策使它成为储存有限人类时间创造的财富的最佳载体,也可以说,比特币是人类有史以来发明的最好的价值存储工具。换句话说,比特币是购买未来的最好方式,因为无论未来升值多少,只有比特币拥有不被劣化的保证。

Bitcoin’s unalterable monetary supply policy makes it the best vehicle for storing the wealth created by the limited human time. In other words, Bitcoin is the best value-storage tool ever invented by mankind. In other words, Bitcoin is the best way to buy the future, because no matter how much appreciation goes in the future, only bitcoin has the guarantee that it will not be corrupted.

图示:全球现有总存量/年产量,

Figure: Global total stock/annual production,

图片来源:货币未来:从金本位到区块链》【黎】赛费迪安·阿莫斯

Source: Money Futures: From the gold standard to the chain of blocks.

2)个体主权

(i) Individual sovereignty

作为首个电子现金,比特币最重要的价值主张是,让每个人都获得对自己货币的绝对主权。任何拥有比特币的人,都获得了比特币发明之前不可能存在的某种经济自由。比特币的持币者,无须任何人许可,就可以在全球范围内完成大量价值移动。比特币的价值不依赖于任何地方的任何实体,因此永远不会被任何实体力量完全阻碍、摧毁或没收。

As the first electronic cash, the most important value proposition of Bitcoin is that everyone has absolute sovereignty over their currency. Anyone who owns bitcoin has some kind of economic freedom that could not have existed before Bitcoin was invented.

3)国际和网上清算

3) International and online liquidation

比特币的优势在于,它将现金结算带入了数字世界,为跨境、长距离的大额支付创造了最快的最终结算方式。

The advantage of Bitcoin is that it brings cash settlements into the digital world and creates the fastest final settlement for large cross-border, long-distance payments.

比特币的发明从根本上创造了一种新的独立的国际结算替代机制,比特币交易的最终结算不依赖于任何交易对手,也不需要任何一家银行成为事实上的仲裁者,因此相对于全球霸权式的中央秩序,比特币是全球对等伙伴网络的理想选择。

Bitcoin's invention essentially created a new independent alternative mechanism for international settlement, whereby the final settlement of Bitcoin transactions was not dependent on any counterparty or required any bank to become a de facto arbiter, and therefore was the ideal option for a global network of reciprocal partners in relation to a global hegemonic central order.

4)全球记账单位

4) Global unit of account

比特币是否会成为全球贸易和经济活动的记账单位,目前还是一个有争议的话题。一旦达成某种形式的价值稳定,比特币就将在全球支付清算方面优于国家货币。现今美元广泛用作全球储备货币,导致的结果是,美国拥有“过度特权”。

As soon as some form of value stability is reached, bitcoin will prevail over national currencies in global payments liquidation. Today, the dollar is widely used as a global reserve currency, with the result that the US has “excessive privileges.”

国际结算货币应该中立于各国的货币政策,黄金在国际金本位时期就出色地扮演了这个角色。要扮演这一角色,比特币比黄金更有优势,因为它的结算可以在几分钟内完成,而且交易的真实性可以被任何人通过互联网轻松验证,几乎没有成本。

The international settlement currency should be neutral in monetary policy across countries, and gold played this role well during the international gold standard. To play this role, Bitcoin is better than gold, because it can be settled in a few minutes, and the trueness of the deal can be easily verified by anyone via the Internet, with little cost.

参考文献:《货币未来:从金本位到区块链》【黎】赛费迪安·阿莫斯

Reference: The Future of Currency: From the gold standard to the chain of blocks.

5.什么情况下比特币价值会归零

回到货币的本质,是关于价值的共识。

Back to the nature of the currency, there was a consensus on the value of .

法定货币中,价值的共识来自于国家信用的背书,国家没有信用,其货币也一文不值,比如说津巴布韦币。

In legal currencies, the consensus of values derives from the endorsement of State credit, which has no credit and whose currency is worthless, such as Zimbabwean currency.

同样对于比特币来说,没有价值共识了,就没有价值了。

Also for Bitcoin, has no value consensus and no value.

拉尔夫·默克尔(Ralph Merkle)是“默克尔树”数据结构(比特币用于记录交易的数据结构)的发明者,它描述比特币的一段话很好的回答了这个问题:

Ralph Merkle, the inventor of the Merkel Tree data structure (the data structure used by bitcoin to record transactions), gives a good answer to this question by describing bitcoin:

比特币是一种新生命形式的首个范例,它在互联网上生活和呼吸。它活下来是因为有钱付给人们;它活下来是因为提供了对人们有用的服务;它活下来是因为任何人在任何地方都可以运行它的代码拷贝;它活下来是因为所有运行的拷贝在互相交谈;它活下来是因为任何一个拷贝遭到破坏,都会被干净利落地丢弃。它活下来是因为它是完全透明的:任何人都可以看它的代码,并确切地看到它正在做什么。

Bitcoin is the first example of a new form of life, living and breathing on the Internet. It survives because it has the money to pay people; it survives because it provides services that are useful to people; it survives because anyone can run a copy of its code anywhere; it survives because all the running copies are talking to each other; it survives because any copy is destroyed, and it is thrown away cleanly. It survives because it is completely transparent: anyone can look at its code and see exactly what it is doing.

它无法改变、无法争论、无法篡改、无法破坏、无法阻止,甚至无法中断。

It cannot change, it cannot argue, it cannot alter, it cannot destroy, it cannot stop, it cannot even stop.

即使核战争将一半地球摧毁,比特币也会活下来,不会损坏。它将继续提供服务,继续给人们带来好处从而维持自身活力。

Even if nuclear war destroys half the planet, Bitcoin will survive without damage. It will continue to provide services that will continue to benefit people and thus sustain themselves.

杀死比特币的唯一方法是关闭每个运行它的服务器。这很难,因为许多国家的许多服务器运行它,并且许多人都想使用它。

The only way to kill Bitcoin is to shut down every server that runs it. It's hard because many servers run it in many countries, and many people want to use it.

实际上,杀死比特币的唯一方法是让它提供没人想用的过时的服务,过时的服务没有人愿意买单。那么它将没钱支付给任何人,然后饥饿而亡。

In fact, the only way to kill Bitcoin is to allow it to provide out-of-date services that no one wants to use, and no one wants to pay. Then it will have no money to pay to anyone and then starve to death.

只要有人想要使用比特币,它就很难被杀死、损坏、停止以及中断。

As long as someone wants to use Bitcoin, it is difficult to be killed, damaged, stopped and interrupted.

此文写于2021年3月7日,当日的比特币的价格又回到了5万美金以上,至于比特币将来还有多大的增值空间,参考我的另一篇文章。

It was written on 7 March 2021, when the price of Bitcoin returned to more than $50,000, and as to how much value-added bitcoin would be in the future, reference is made to another article of mine.

比特币突破5万美元,还有上涨的空间吗?数据给你答案

那么正确投资比特币的方式是什么呢?我会在后续文章中详细解答,欢迎扫描下方二维码与我交流。

So what's the right way to invest in bitcoin? I'll give you a detailed answer in a follow-up article, and I'll welcome two-dimensional numbers below the scan to talk to me.

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