[PConline 杂谈]今年绝对称得上是DIY玩家的噩梦，谁能想到去年年底卖掉显卡能原价回本，到了今年这个本钱，竟然连三年前的显卡都买不起呢？比特币等虚拟货币的行情暴涨，带动了显卡挖矿潮，导致今年上半年几乎没有主流显卡能以原价买到，甚至还爆出了官方充当黄牛的小道新闻。
[PConline] This year is definitely a DY player nightmare. Who can think of selling a card at the end of last year, and this year's money can't even afford a card three years ago? The surge in virtual currency, such as Bitcoin, triggered a boom in card mining, leading to almost no mainstream card being bought at the original price in the first half of this year, and even popping up the news of official bulls.
比特币为代表的虚拟货币，近日迎来了暴跌行情
买不到显卡的日子是难熬的，所幸这段日子似乎要过去了。近日，比特币、以太坊等虚拟货币迎来了跳水行情，比特币的价格从最高的一枚六万多美元，腰斩至现在的三万美元左右，以太坊等其他虚拟货币也走出了类似的行情。在这样的行情下用显卡挖矿，投入产出比就江河日下了，那么显卡会迎来一波降价吗？这就来简单讲讲吧。
The days when a card cannot be bought are difficult, fortunately it seems to be over. In recent days, virtual currency such as Bitcoin and Taiku has come to a jump. Bitcoin is worth more than $60,000 from the highest dollar, beheadings to the current 30,000, and other virtual currency such as Taicha has come out of the same.
为什么比特币等虚拟货币会跳水？
Why would a virtual currency like bitcoin jump?
显卡涨价缺货背后最大的原因，是虚拟货币行情的火热，显卡会不会降价，和虚拟货币的行情自然密不可分。为什么近来虚拟货币会出现跳水行情？不少业界人士都多次警告过，比特币为代表的虚拟货币火热行情的背后，存在种种暗雷。而在最近，各种雷一箩筐集中爆发了。
The biggest reason behind the stock-up is the heat of the virtual currency, whether it will fall, and whether it will be indistinguishable. Why do virtual money jumps in recent times?
·监管收紧。长期以来，以比特币为代表的虚拟货币，常被用于种种水面下的资金操作，例如洗钱、黑市交易、资金外逃等等；加起生成虚拟货币的“挖矿”行为，会造成巨大的能源消耗，有的“矿场”甚至承包了一些小电站，对环境污染、碳排放有着难以计量的负面影响。对比特币严加监管，一直是很多政府和组织努力的方向。
. has long been a virtual currency, represented by bitcoin, which is often used for various subsurface money operations, such as money laundering, black market transactions, money flight, etc.; adding to the “mining” that generates virtual money will result in huge energy consumption, some “mines” even contracting small power stations, with incalculable negative impacts on environmental pollution and carbon emissions.
近日国内关停了大量虚拟币矿场（图片来自网络）
最近，国内对比特币等数字货币的监管达到了一个高峰。首先，四川、新疆等地查封关停了大量矿场，严令禁止虚拟货币的挖矿行径，从源头上对虚拟货币进行打击；其次，四大行等银行，乃至支付宝等支付工具，都禁止使用其服务进行虚拟货币的交易，这让比特币等虚拟币无法通过兑换法币来进行流通；再者，国内关停了各种虚拟币交易所，虚拟币的交易、投资难有靠谱渠道，这点我们会在下文详细展开说。
First, Sichuan and Xinjiang have shut down a large number of mines, strictly forbidding the mining of virtual currency and attacking virtual currency from its source; secondly, banks such as four major banks, and even payment instruments such as payment bonds, have banned the use of their services for transactions in virtual currency, which prevents virtual currency such as bitcoin from circulating through the exchange of French currency; and secondly, various virtual currency exchanges have been closed in the country, and virtual currency transactions and investments are difficult to track down, as we will elaborate below.
支付宝禁止比特币等虚拟币交易的声明
不得不说，国内这些对虚拟货币的监管措施还是非常有力的。矿场被禁，虚拟币难以变现、交易，挖矿收益不再乐观。近日比特币、以太坊等虚拟币的行情大幅下跌，和这些举措有着直接关系。
This domestic regulation of virtual money is, I have to say, very strong. The mine is banned, the virtual currency is difficult to cash, trade, and the profits from mining are no longer optimistic.
·交易不可靠。国内禁止虚拟币交易所，已经不是什么大新闻了。如果你想要投资虚拟币，要么走私人交易、一手交钱一手交货的途径，要么则是通过海外交易所（包括国内企业在海外开展的业务）来进行投资。一手交钱一手交货的风险在于对方反口，而交易所就那么靠谱吗？这里坑就大了。
If you want to invest in virtual currency, you either trade in smugglers, hand-to-hand, or invest in overseas exchanges (including those conducted abroad by domestic firms). The risk of a hand-to-hand delivery is the opposite, and the exchange is so solid.
交易所动不动就以各种借口“维护”，这种“拔网线”行为屡见不鲜
由于国内禁止虚拟币交易所，因此国人参与使用海外的虚拟币交易所服务，是缺乏监管的。而某些交易所亲自参与炒作、和“庄家”牵线，也是几乎公开的秘密。很多投资者都遭遇过交易所突然“拔网线”，交易被强制中止的情况，遭受重大损失，其中痛苦冷暖自知；曾经世界上最大的比特币交易所Mt.Gox（俗称门头沟），就丢了用户巨额的比特币，自称是因为被黑客攻击盗取，但实际上是不是监守自盗？反正老板们是跑路了。总之虚拟币的交易所，啥魔幻新闻都不叫新闻。
Many investors have experienced the sudden “extinguishing” of the exchange, where transactions have been suspended by force, and have suffered significant losses, among which there has been a painful and unacknowledged loss of access to the huge bitcoin of the world’s biggest Bitcoin exchange, the Mt.Gox (commonly known as the Door Gap), claiming to have been stolen by hackers, but actually monitoring themselves? The counter-owners are running.
在这样缺乏监管的交易渠道下，虚拟币是否真的值得投资？越来越多的交易者已经重新严肃思考这个问题。
Is virtual currency really worth investing under such unregulated trading channels? A growing number of traders have rethought this issue seriously.
·行情到头。尽管比特币为代表的虚拟币被一部分人美名曰“数字黄金”，但虚拟币的行情，显然没有黄金来得稳定。在今年，比特币的总市值一度冲上1万亿美元，虽说共识也属于价值的一种，但“数字黄金”的共识是否足以支撑起如此体量？恐怕仅仅凭借这个美称，是难以为继的。
. Although Bitcoin represents a virtual currency that is called “digital gold” by some people, it is clear that there is no gold to stabilize. This year, the total market value of Bitcoin went up by $1 trillion, and even though consensus is one of value, does the consensus of “digital gold” suffice?
马斯克一两句话就能影响虚拟币的大盘，如此不稳定的币值和黄金相去甚远
比特币等虚拟币并不像黄金那样，拥有独一无二的不可取代性——单一的币种，或许的确是独一无二的，但虚拟币的种类，却无穷无尽。这意味着虚拟币的投资池子永远也见不到底，沉淀的资金无法落到实处，终须浮出水面——时至今日，虚拟币基本上仍无法和实物挂钩，用共识支撑起的台子，还能耸立多久？恐怕很多人参与这个市场，都是在玩击鼓传花，并不想接最后一棒。
Virtual coins like bitcoins are not uniquely irreplaceable as gold – a single currency, perhaps unique, but the type of virtual coins is endless. This means that the investment pool of virtual coins will never end, that the funds deposited will never come to fruition, and that they will eventually surface – and so far, virtual coins will remain largely untied to the object, that they will be supported by consensus, and that they will be strangling for how long?
事实上，虚拟币崩盘、“矿难”已经发生过。在两年前，虚拟货币就曾经迎来大崩盘，廉价显卡到处都是。这一幕会重演吗？我们拭目以待。
In fact, the virtual currency collapse, the “mine crash” have occurred. Two years ago, the virtual currency collapsed, and the cheap card was everywhere. Will this scene happen again? We'll see.
·前景模糊。总量不变、抗通胀、必将成为“未来货币”，这又是一个支撑起虚拟货币价格的共识。然而经济学早已告诉我们，总量不变的等价物天然通缩，是无法作为货币支撑起不断增长的经济的。说人话就是，如果货币总量不变，随着社会物质愈加丰富，钱就会越来越值钱，人们就会倾向于保留它而不是花出去，钱就没法流通，作为钱存在。
But economics has already told us that the constant equivalents of the total are natural deflations that cannot support a growing economy as a currency. To tell you the truth, if the monetary stock remains constant, as society becomes richer, the money will become more valuable, and people will prefer to keep it rather than spend it, and the money will not flow and exist as money.
基于这个原理，比特币、以太坊等虚拟货币至今仍未被主流承认，作为货币使用。尽管某些厂商可能会突然宣布支持使用比特币支付，但到头来大家发现，这只是创始人用来割韭菜前，拉升币值的猴戏而已。现今，虚拟货币仍只能算是投资品，以及某些特殊经济活动的中介物，不可能成为“未来货币”。那么未来的虚拟币们在监管渐渐收紧的大环境下，会走向怎样的道路？这方面的共识，恐怕很难达成。
Based on this principle, virtual currencies such as Bitcoin and Etheria have not yet been recognized as a mainstream currency. While some manufacturers may suddenly announce their support for the use of bitcoin, it turns out that this is just a monkey show that the founders used to raise the value of the currency before cutting vegetables.
简单来说，比特币、以太坊为代表的虚拟货币，它们的投资环境是恶劣的，应用前途是不明朗的。参与其中者，不乏抱有跟风心态或者搏一搏心态的赌徒。这次虚拟货币出现跳水迹象，恐怕预示着行情又走到了崩盘周期——历史早已证明了投机者的共识，极易土崩瓦解。
Simply put, Bitcoin, a virtual currency represented by the Taiku, has a bad investment climate and an uncertain future for its application. Those involved are gamblers who have followed or fought.
显卡会降价吗？值得买吗？
虚拟币的行情拉动了显卡的价格，那么显卡近期会降价吗？降价后的显卡值不值得买？笔者认为需要从以下方面分析。 The price of the card has been pushed by the move of the virtual currency, so will the card be reduced in the near future? The value of the card after the price has been reduced is not worth buying? I think I need an analysis of the following. ·显卡需求是否平衡。随着国内矿场的关停，市场上将会出现一波矿卡的供应潮，短时间内显卡向下的价格波动是可以预见的。不过和之前相比，虚拟币的价格虽然腰斩，但仍处于历史上的较高位置，挖矿需求仍客观存在，因此显卡价格是否会击穿官方售价，仍不好判断。 . , as domestic mines close down, a wave of mine cards will be available on the market, and price fluctuations down short periods of time can be foreseen. However, the price of virtual coins, while slashed, remains historically high, and the demand for mining remains objective. ·经济大环境是否有变。在疫情下，世界的经济体系遭遇了重大挑战。为了应对经济上的问题，以美国为代表的很多国家，都采取了货币宽松政策，也就是俗称的“印钱”。这一举措会推高资产价格，给了比特币等虚拟币一个很好的炒作理由。 In order to deal with economic problems, many countries represented by the United States have adopted monetary easing, commonly known as “print money.” This initiative would push asset prices up and give a good reason for using virtual currency such as bitcoin. 目前货币宽松政策仍在持续，在这样的经济大环境下，虚拟币仍是很多人青睐的投资品。尽管国内关停了大批矿场，但国外仍会有同类生意，显卡的需求仍是客观存在的。事实上，这些天就冒出了国内运送矿机到国外继续挖矿事业的报道，如果国外的显卡需求依然旺盛，那么显卡市场始终会有个向上的价格支撑。 Despite the closure of a large number of mines in the country, there is still a similar business abroad, and the need for a card remains objective. Indeed, these days have given rise to reports that domestic transporters continue to dig abroad, and that if the demand for a card from abroad remains strong, the market will always be supported by an upward price. 无论如何，国内的二手显卡市场必然要比之前更加充足，那么这些冒出来的显卡值得购买吗？ In any case, the domestic market for second-hand cards is bound to be more adequate than before, so is the resulting cards worth buying? ·矿卡值不值得买。和普通用户手中的显卡不同，用来挖矿的显卡几乎是24x7无间断高负荷工作，且运行环境通常比较恶劣，工况可想而知。和正常使用的显卡相比，矿卡往往会呈现PWM渗油、电容变黄等元器件明显老化的痕迹。同时，矿工很多时候会对矿卡进行改装、维修，流通到二手市场的矿卡到底能继续工作多久，完全是个未知数。 . Unlike the visible cards in the hands of ordinary users, the visible cards used to dig mines are almost 24x7 work-loaded and often run in a harsher environment, and the working conditions are clear. Compared to the normally used cards, the cards tend to show signs of significant ageing of components such as pWM permeating oil, capacitated yellow, etc. At the same time, miners often modify and repair the cards, and it is entirely unknown how long they can continue to work in the second-hand market. 考虑到很多显卡厂商都不提供矿卡的保修，而店保往往仅有三个月，如果矿卡没有特别明显的价格优势，并不建议大家购买。目前矿卡的价格仍高于显卡的发售价，是否值得购买？还是结合需求谨慎考虑吧。 Given that many card manufacturers do not provide warranty for the mine card, the insurance policy is often only three months, and it is not recommended if the card does not have a particularly significant price advantage. Is the price of the card still higher than the price of the card? 另外，也有玩家表示，这次绝对不会购买流出的矿卡。矿工扰乱了DIY市场，玩家是否应该接盘矿卡给矿工们回血？不少DIY玩家感情上就难以接受。按照乐观的预计，下代显卡会在年底传来消息，让这代显卡彻底烂在经销商、二道贩子、矿工的手里，让其蒙受损失以换取未来更有秩序的显卡市场，也不失为一种选择。 There are also players who say that they will never buy out the mine card this time. The miners disrupt the DEY market, so should the players take the card back to the miners? A lot of DY players are emotionally difficult to accept. According to optimistic expectations, next-generation cards will send word at the end of the year that the card will rot completely in the hands of distributors, second-track dealers, miners, and that it will be an option for them to lose in exchange for a more orderly card market in the future. 总结 这次国内对于虚拟币的整治，的确已经在虚拟币市场刮起寒风。但这能将显卡市场的热度降到何种程度？还是个未知数。暑假将至，这往往是一年中的装机高峰，如果你在今年有装机需求，不妨持续观望，等待显卡回到更理性的价格吧。 It is true that domestic regulation of virtual coins is already chilling in the virtual currency market. But how much heat does that bring to the card market?
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