Tether——世界上最受欢迎的稳定币，一直在增加发行量。自今年1月以来，已经有47亿美元的Tether进入了比特币生态系统。现在，有近90亿美元的Tether在流通。
Tether — The most popular stable currency in the world has been increasing circulation. Since January of this year, $4.7 billion of Tether has entered the Bitcoin ecosystem. Now, nearly $9 billion of Tether is in circulation.
自2014年10月6日这个美元代币问世以来，近一半的Tether是在过去5个月里发行的。（从Tether发行图可以看出，今年年初开始，它看起来像一个锯齿状的楼梯，随后有一小段平稳期，最后呈直线上升。)
Almost half of Tether has been issued in the last five months since the dollar coin came into existence on 6 October 2014. (The map from Tether shows that, beginning at the beginning of this year, it looks like a staircase with serrated teeth, followed by a small smooth period, with a final straight up.
到底是怎么回事？为什么我们需要这么多Tether？
What the hell is going on? Why do we need so much Tether?
（蓝色线代表Tether的发行走势）
(Blue lines represent the trend of Tether's release)
比特币怀疑论者：美元正在消失
Bitcoin skeptic: The dollar is disappearing.
一位比特币怀疑论者认为，这是不是一个好兆头，表明在密码生态系统中，真实的美元——交易网络、OTC渠道以及人们交易密码的其他方式——正开始消失，被比特币矿工不断吸走，他们需要美元来支付巨额电费。
& nbsp; a Bitcoin skeptic believes that this is not a good sign that the real dollar — the trading network, the OTC channel and other ways in which people traded the code — is beginning to disappear in the cryptosystem and is being absorbed by the Bitcoin miners, who need the dollar to pay for large amounts of electricity.
伯克利国际计算机科学研究所的研究员Nicholas Weaver说，矿工“必须出售比特币来获取真正的钱”。
Nicholas Weaver, a researcher at the International Institute of Computer Science in Berkeley, said that the miners “must sell bitcoins to get real money”.
Weaver认为这种流行的加密货币主要是犯罪分子的工具，自2011年以来，他一直在研究比特币。他的研究主要由美国国家科学基金会资助。去年，在加利福尼亚举行的Enigma安全会议上，他在一次名为“Burn it with fire”（烧毁它）的演讲中对加密进行了抨击。
Weaver believes that this popular encrypt currency is primarily a tool of criminals, and he has been studying bitcoin since 2011. His research is mainly funded by the National Science Foundation of the United States. Last year, at the Enigma Security Conference in California, he criticized encryption in a speech entitled “Bern it with fire.”
观点：市场预期BTC价格会继续走高:Beincrypto发文称，根据区块链分析公司Glassnode的数据，主要加密货币交易所上比特币永续掉期的平均融资利率仍为0.05％。新的掉期交易没有明显增加融资利率，这说明了两点。首先：投资者和交易员正在现货市场上购买BTC，而不是利用杠杆。此外，平均融资利率仍保持在略高于零的水平，这表明尽管比特币的价格创下历史新高，但进行永续掉期交易的交易者还没有准备好进入空头头寸。换句话说，他们不认为价格会下降。这两个观察结果加在一起，表明市场预期BTC价格会继续走高。[2021/2/21 17:35:31]
First, investors and traders are buying BTC on the spot rather than using leverage. Moreover, the average financing interest rate remains slightly above zero, indicating that traders who make permanent transactions are not ready to enter empty positions despite historically high Bitcoin prices. In other words, they do not believe that prices will fall. Taken together, the two observations indicate that the market expects BTC prices to continue to rise. [2021/2/21 17:35:31]
他还经常在推特上发表对比特币的批评。他最近写道：
He also regularly tweets the criticism of Bitcoin, and recently wrote:
他的意思是当比特币的价格下降到“51%攻击变得很便宜时，比特币不再可用。”
He meant that when the price of bitcoin fell, "51% of attacks became cheap, bitcoin was no longer available."
简单来说，Tether实际上是一种与美元挂钩的代币。交易所，尤其是那些与传统银行没有联系的交易所，用它来代替真正的美元，为加密货币市场带来流动性，对冲波动性。
& nbsp; Simply put, Tether is actually a currency pegged to the dollar. Exchanges, especially those with no links to traditional banks, use it to replace real dollars, bringing liquidity and hedge volatility to the encrypted currency market.
有几件事——好吧，不止几件——使Tether备受争议。其一，它由Bitfinex控制。Bitfinex是一家加密货币交易所，颇受欢迎。
There are a few things -- well, more than a few -- that make Teth controversial. One, it's controlled by Bitfinex. Bitfinex is a popular crypto-currency exchange.
但主要的症结在于Tether声称，Tether（USDT）与美元1：1挂钩。没有人确切地知道什么支撑着Tether。从来没有人站出来说他们能够赎回那些本应是美元IOU的Tether。(至少这是最初的协议。给他们美元，他们就会给你Tether；把Tether还回去，你就能拿回你的钱。)
But the main problem is that Tether claims that Tether is pegged to $1:1. No one knows exactly what sustains Tether. No one has ever come forward to say that they can redeem Tether, which was supposed to be a dollar IOU. (At least this was the original agreement. Give them dollars, they'll give you Tether; if you return Teth, you can get your money back.)
Kraken通过Chainlink节点将Oracle费率提供给DeFi:加密货币交易所Kraken今日宣布，它现在正在运行自己的Chainlink节点，使其能够向以太坊和其他区块链广播其Oracle费率，以便去中心化金融(DeFi)应用程序和开发者使用。Chainlink内置的加密签名功能也允许用户访问平台任何数据的链上证明。（Coindesk）[2021/2/1 18:37:57]
Kraken provides the Oracle rate to DeFi through the Chainlink node: The Encrypted Currency Exchange Kraken announces today that it is now running its own Chainlink node, enabling it to broadcast its Oracle rate to the Ethio and other block chains in order to decentralize financial (DeFi) applications and developers. The encryption signature function in Chainlink also allows users to access the chain of proof of any data on the platform. (Coindesk) [2021/2/1 18:37:57]
随着时间的推移，游戏规则改变了。2019年4月，Bitfinex的总法律顾问Stuart Hoegner在法庭文件中承认，Tether只有74%的资金来自“现金和现金等价物”，这让人们相信，很多Tether是被凭空造出来的。（Bitfinex正在接受纽约总检察长办公室的调查。）当市场上只有价值28亿美元的Tether流通时，Hoegner透露了这一点。
The rules of the game have changed over time. In April 2019, Stuart Hoegner, the General Counsel for Bitfinex, admitted in court documents that only 74% of Tether's funds came from “cash and cash equivalents”, which led to the belief that many Tethers were created in vain. (Bitfinex is under investigation by the New York Attorney General's Office.) Hoegner revealed this when there was only $2.8 billion worth of Teth circulating in the market.
如今，这个数字是原来的3倍。
Today, that figure is three times the original.
无论是Stuart Hoegner，还是Tether的沟通部门，还是Bitfinex，都没有回复置评请求。
Neither Stuart Hoegner, nor Tether's communications department, nor Bitfinex responded to the request for assessment.
我们不知道的事
& nbsp; things we don't know
可以说，加密货币领域最重要的数字之一是系统中流通的实际美元金额。这个数字和Tether的数量同样重要。两者都提供流动性，让买卖比特币变得容易。两者都有助于比特币定价。但只有美元才能用来支付运营这一网络的成本。
& nbsp; it can be said that one of the most important figures in the crypto-currency field is the actual dollar amounts in circulation in the system. That figure is just as important as the number of Tether. Both provide liquidity, making it easier to buy and sell bitcoins. Both contribute to bitcoin pricing. But only the dollar can be used to cover the cost of running the network.
当然，这个数字几乎无法确定。拥有银行业务的密码交易所（他们要么与银行直接建立联系，要么使用Crypto Capital Corp等影子银行服务）不愿共享信息。
Of course, this number is almost impossible to determine. The crypto-exchanges that have banking operations (they either have direct contact with banks or use shadow banking services such as Crypto Capital Corp) are reluctant to share information.
OTC经常在幕后操作，这个渠道会交易大量的加密货币。这还不包括全球近8000个比特币ATM机。在这些ATM机中，人们可以用现金购买比特币，通常是匿名购买，地点是烟草商店或便利店。
This does not include nearly 8,000 bitcoin ATM machines worldwide. In these machines, people can buy bitcoins in cash, usually anonymously, in tobacco shops or convenience stores.
我们知道的事
& nbsp; what we know
然而，我们可以通过了解我们所知道的情况来了解比特币的现金状况。
& nbsp; however, we can learn about Bitcoin's cash situation by knowing what we know.
基于区块奖励，我们知道有多少新的比特币进入流通。我们知道，比特币的价格是由系统中的美元总量决定的，即现金和Tether的组合。
Based on block incentives, we know how many new bitcoins are in circulation. We know that bitcoin prices are determined by the total dollar in the system, that is, the combination of cash and Tether.
我们知道Tether在过去5个月里以每天3300万美元的速度发行虚拟美元——这是一个强有力的指标，表明系统中的实际现金水平正在危险地下降，Weaver说。
We know that Tether has been issuing virtual dollars at the rate of $33 million a day over the past five months — a powerful indicator of a dangerous decline in real cash levels in the system, as Weaver says.
电费成本
& nbsp; electricity costs
在能源成本方面，有多少现金正在从系统中消失？根据剑桥大学研究人员公布的一项数据，比特币网络消耗的电力比一个小国家还多——Weaver称之为“可憎”。
How much cash is disappearing from the system in terms of energy costs? According to a data published by Cambridge University researchers, the Bitcoin network consumes more electricity than a small country — what Weaver calls “odd”.
四大会计师事务所普华永道的区块链专家Alex de Vries说，按照每千瓦时5美分计算，比特币网络每小时需要花费约33.5万美元。这意味着必须有人每天用现金购买价值近800万美元的新比特币，才能保证系统的安全。
Alex de Vries, a block chain expert at PricewaterhouseCoopers, the four leading accountants, said that the Bitcoin network costs about $3.35 million per hour at a rate of 5 cents per kilowatt. This means that people have to buy new bitcoins worth nearly $8 million per day in cash to ensure the system’s safety.
这些成本正在给矿工带来压力。
These costs are putting pressure on miners.
他们每10分钟获得6.25个比特币的奖励。按每比特币9000美元计算，相当于每小时34万美元。目前，他们不得不卖掉挖出的每一个比特币来支付电费。（在5月12日减半之前，他们的奖励是12.5 BTC，所以他们赚得更多。）de Vries表示，在5月至9月期间，电费平均成本将降至每千瓦时2-3美分。这是因为超过50%的比特币挖矿活动集中在中国四川省，该地区受益于雨季，水电能源成本较低。
They receive 6.25 bitcoins per 10 minutes. At $9,000 per bitcoin, it is equivalent to $340,000 per hour. At present, they have to sell every bitcoins that they dig to pay for electricity. (At 12.5 BTC, before being halved on May 12, they earn more.) De Vries states that the average cost of electricity will be reduced to 2-3 cents per kilowatt-hour between May and September. This is because more than 50 per cent of Bitcoin mining is concentrated in Sichuan Province, China, where the region benefits from the rainy season and water and electricity costs are lower.
电力并不是矿工必须承担的唯一成本。他们必须支付他们的矿机费用，每台矿机最高可达3000美元，而且随着ASIC设备的更新换代，更换设备是常有的事。他们还必须支付租金、税款、工资和其他所有经营企业的费用。所有这些东西都需要用真正的美元或人民币支付，而不是Tether，这导致现金不断地从生态系统中流出。
Electricity is not the only cost that miners have to pay. They have to pay for their machines, up to US$ 3,000 per machine, and it is common for them to replace their equipment as ASIC equipment is upgraded. They also have to pay for rent, taxes, wages, and all other operating businesses. All of this needs to be paid in real dollars or yuan, not in Teth, which leads to a constant outflow of cash out of the ecosystem.
Weaver认为，即使矿工留下他们刚挖出的比特币，这仍然会从系统中抽走现金。因为它降低了市场上可用的比特币供应并提高了比特币价格。
Weaver argued that even if the miners left the bitcoin they had just dug up, it would still take cash out of the system because it reduced the availability of bitcoins in the market and raised the price of bitcoins.
但是，难道没有足够多的巨鲸（比特币大户）来确保比特币供应不会短缺吗？
But isn't there enough giant whales (bitcoins) to ensure that bitcoins are not supplied in short supply?
毕竟，他们可以随心所欲地控制供应。
After all, they can control the supply as they wish.
Weaver说：
Weaver said:
德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校的两名研究人员在2018年6月发布的一份报告中称，Tether也为牛市提供了动力。（其中一位，John Griffin，现在正接受美国司法部的资助，通过他的公司Integra FEC对Tether进行研究。）2017年发行的Tether价值约14亿美元。
Two researchers at the University of Texas, Austin, stated in a report issued in June 2018 that Tether had also provided impetus to the cattle market. (One of them, John Griffin, is now receiving funding from the United States Department of Justice to conduct a study on Tether through his company, Integra FEC.) Tether, published in 2017, was worth about $1.4 billion.
而最近的这次价格飙升（比特币的价格自年初以来已经上涨了36%）则不同。现在他说：“只有Tether了。”
This latest price surge (the price of bitcoin has risen by 36% since the beginning of the year) is different. Now he says, "There's only Tether."
问题是，现在谁在购买比特币？系统迫切需要的现金从哪里来？
The question is, who's buying bitcoin now? Where does the system get the much needed cash?
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