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2021年環球市場的第一場「大屠殺」，由比特幣領銜主演--自上周末的41962美元紀錄新高，急墮至周二(12日)低見30305美元，價格短短三日灰飛煙滅逾萬美元，不單刷新「斷崖式暴跌」境界，更再引發投資界的口水戰。而隨著基準十年期美債收益率連升6個交易日，通脹正愈來愈似「房間裏的大象」。
The first Massacre in the Global Market in 2021, led by Bitcoins – from a record high of $4162 last weekend to a record low of $30305 on Tuesday (12) at a price of just three days – has wiped out thousands of dollars, not only by refreshing the precipitous cliff crash, but also by triggering a rhetorical battle for investment. And, with the successive six trading days of the decade-long US debt boom, it has become more like a "horizontal elephant."
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難擔避險 VS 上車機會
Hard to avoid VS Access
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加密虛擬貨幣鼻祖比特幣，憑2020年高逾270%升幅，似從股神巴菲特口中的「跟貝殼沒兩樣」，成為愈來愈多擁躉眼中的「儲值新貴」。踏入2021年，正當其高歌猛進，上周末兩度探試42000美元關口(最高錄41962美元)之際，周日(10日)突掉頭轉跌，並於昨晚低見30305美元，跌幅近三成。
Encrypting the virtual currency, with its nostrils, at more than 270 per cent in 2020, appears to have been "same as the shell" in the giraffe Buffett, becoming the "new value of the stock" in a growing number of eyes. Entering in 2021, just as his high song stomped, last weekend, two tests at the US$ 42,000 threshold (the highest of US$ 4162), Sunday (10 days) turned upside down, and last night, when it was down to US$ 305, almost 305.
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比特幣價格短短三日灰飛煙滅逾萬美元，不單刷新「斷崖式暴跌」境界，更再引發投資界的口水戰。
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知名黃金大好友、歐洲太平洋資本首席執行官Peter Schiff趁機表示，一個周末即跌28%的資產難言避險資產、價值儲備、通脹對沖，「如果你想賭博，請買比特幣；但如果想對沖通脹，請買黃金。」
Peter Schiff, a well-known gold best friend and CEO of the European Pacific Capital, took the opportunity to say that 28 per cent of the assets that fell on a weekend could not afford to be risk-free, valuable reserves, hedges, "If you want to gamble, buy bitcoins, but buy gold if you want to bets."
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不過，他的一番「極少機構投資者購買比特幣」的說法，隨即引發口水戰。加密貨幣交易所Gemini聯合創辦人Tyler Winklevoss就稱此「完全錯誤」，指機構對比特幣需求巨大，惟大部分對此低調；更呼籲上次錯過35000美元上車的人機會已至。
However, his version of "the purchase of bitcoins by very few institutional investors" led to a saliva battle. Tyler Winklevoss, co-founder of the encrypted currency exchange Gemini, called it a "total error" and pointed out that the agency was in great demand for bitcoins, but that most of them were understated; even more so, it called on those who had missed $35,000 last time to get in the car.
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「大屠殺」突至原因或有三
The Massacre may have three causes
何解比特幣價格突上演「大屠殺」?說法一:美元指數連升4日重上90關口；說法二:英國金融行為監管局(FCA)警告，(FCA)警告，投資虛擬貨幣需「準備好承受所有損失」；說法三:花旗國最大的加密貨幣交易所Coinbase的程式錯誤，觸發算法交易相互踩踏。
How do you explain the precipitous role of the Bitcoin price in the Great Massacre? Say one: the dollar index rose four days in a row to the 90th threshold; say two: the British Financial Services Authority (FCA) warned that the investment in virtual currency had to be "ready to bear all the losses"; say three: the Coinbase, the largest encrypted currency exchange in Citigroup, had a procedural error, triggering algorithmic transactions stomping on each other?
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儘管比特幣的一眾忠粉誓言今次「回調」已達「非常健康」的跌幅限制，本月晚些時候仍將挑戰歷史新高，但上月剛預測比特幣最終或達40萬美元的古根海姆投資首席投資官Scott Minerd就指，比特幣的拋物線式上漲短期內不可持續，呼籲見好就收。「新債王」岡拉克則踩多腳表示，看漲比特幣如同人們全部湧向船的一側，暗示投資者過於樂觀。
Despite the fact that a “very healthy” fall limit has been reached by a bitcoins loyally vowed to “rewind” this month, it will still be challenging its history later this month, but Scott Mind, the chief investment officer who predicted that the bitcoin would end up with $400,000 in investment in Gugenheim just last month, said that it would not last for a short period of time, and that it would be good to call for it. The New Debt King’s gladiator said that he had stepped on his feet and looked at the bitcoins as if they were all pointed out to the ship, suggesting that the investors were too optimistic.
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而從Skybridge Capital到One River Digital等對沖基金大佬，紛紛加入追逐所謂「數碼黃金」陣營，背後恐是愈來愈似「房間裡的大象」的通脹。
On the other hand, from Skybridge Capital to One River Digital, the rival funders joined the so-called "digital gold" camp, fearing that it would become more and more like an elephant in the room.
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美債息、糧價、油價齊看漲
{\cHFFFFFF}{\cH00FFFF} American debt, food prices, oil prices up \ \ \cH00FFFF}
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截至今日，基準十年期美債收益率已連錄6個交易日上升，而另一通脹指標的油價，獲高盛上調預期至今年夏天達到每桶65美元；此外，聯合國糧食署的世界糧食價格指數(FPI)上月錄連漲7個月續刷新近6年高點，其中植物油、穀物價格指數去年分別累漲19.1%、6.6%。岡拉克即預期，美國通脹今年中可能回升至3%水平。
As of today, the benchmark ten-year United States debt rate has risen by six trading days, while another benchmark oil price has been raised to $65 per barrel in the summer; moreover, the United States Food Programme's World Food Price Index (FPI) rose by seven months last month, with vegetable oil and cereal prices rising by 19.1 per cent and 6.6 per cent last year, and the United States may recover to 3 per cent this year.
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鑒於此，聯儲恐很快面臨是否容許十年期美債升至肺疫前水平的約2.5%，還是祭出收益率曲線控制工具人為壓低息口。但市場人士就指，利率每升50個基點，意味華府利息支出將每年多出一個海軍軍費預算；倘選擇後者，美元恐難逃大貶。此外，全球供應鏈重組衝擊生產力，及人民幣升值推升「中國造」成本，同將成為通脹的驅動力。
In view of this, the combined reserve is likely to soon face a 10-year debt of about 2.5% to pre-pulmonary levels, or to sacrifice the curve control tool for yield. But marketers say that interest rates at 50 basis points per litre mean that China will spend an additional 50 dollars a year on the naval budget; if it is chosen, the dollar will run away. Moreover, the global supply chain will hit production power, and the renminbi’s appreciation will boost the cost of “China’s manufacturing” and will become a driving force.
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面對通脹大象，買股、買金、買比特幣……?如同比特幣今次是調整還是轉勢，各人心中都自有答案。
In the face of elephants, buying shares, buying money, buying bitcoins? Like the bitcoins are adjusting or changing, people have their own answers.
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