近期加密货币市场持续疲软，比特币甚至在昨（25）日一度跌破6万美元关口，最低触及58,402美元。尽管在撰稿时比特币有所回升，今（26）日凌晨三点最高触及62,422美元，但投资者对BTC的未来走势仍充满谨慎与担忧。
Recent crypto-currency markets have continued to weaken, with Bitcoin breaking even yesterday’s (25) $60,000 mark, reaching a minimum of $58,402. Despite a recovery in bitcoin at the time of writing, reaching a maximum of $62,422 at 3 a.m. today, 26 days, investors remain cautious and worried about the future of BTC.
许多结构性因素导致了比特币的持续下跌，如Mt.Gox宣布将在7月初开始向债权人还款，市场可能面临数万枚比特币的抛压；德国政府或将出售其没收的比特币，总价值达到近30亿美元；比特币矿工的抛售；比特币ETF的资金流出；比特币OG的获利了结等。然而，10X Research表示，比特币目前正处于严重超卖阶段，市场的贪婪与恐惧指数也几乎降至最低水平。因此，比特币可能正处于相对的价格低点，或许在进一步的下跌后，将迎来反弹。
Many structural factors have led to a continuing decline in Bitcoin, such as the announcement by Mt. Gox that repayments to creditors would begin in early July, with the market likely facing tens of thousands of bitcoins; the German government, or the confiscated bitcoins, to be sold, with a total value of nearly $3 billion; the sale of bitcoin miners; the outflow of Bitcoin ETF funds; and the profit of bitcoin OG. However, 10 X Research states that Bitcoin is currently in a period of severe over-sale and that the market's greed and fear index is almost at its lowest level. Thus, Bitcoins may be at a relative low price, perhaps after further decline, and will be countered.
CryptoQuant分析师Mignolet表示，根据去年比特币在盘整阶段的UTXO盈利率百分比来看，虽然比特币目前处于盘整阶段，但UTXO盈利率百分比明显已经脱离了低点。因此，比特币巨鲸可能会对市场的恐慌情绪做出反应，这也预示着市场或许将出现V型反弹。
CryptoQuant analyst Mignolet said that, based on the percentage of UTXO profit from last year’s round-up phase in Bitcoin, while bitcoin is currently in the round-up phase, the percentage of UTXO profit is clearly at a low point. As a result, Bitcoin whales may react to market panic, which also portends a possible V-type rebound in the market.
Matrixport指出，比特币的贪婪与恐惧指数可能已经达到最低水平，这也预示着市场可能将触底反弹。
According to Matirxport, Bitcoin's greed and fear index may have reached its lowest level, which also portends a possible backlash from the market.
Bitfinex表示，虽然许多分析师认为当前市场可能已经处于底部，但加密货币交易所Bitfinex在最新的周报中指出，美国的比特币现货ETF上周持续出现资金净流出，金额超过5.4亿美元，这表明弱势的ETF投资者正在对市场的负面消息做出反应。此外，芝商所（CME）和其他交易平台上的比特币期货未平仓合约也大幅下降，显示出与ETF资金流动相关的套利交易显著减少。
Bitfinex states that, while many analysts believe that the current market may be at the bottom, the crypto-currency exchange Bitfinex, in its latest weekly report, noted a continued net outflow of funds from the United States’ spot ETF in Bitcoin, amounting to more than $540 million last week, suggesting that vulnerable ETF investors are reacting to the market’s negative news. In addition, there has also been a significant decline in the unwinding of Bitcoin futures contracts at the CME and other trading platforms, indicating a significant decrease in arbitrage transactions associated with ETF financial flows.
总结：比特币市场在经历了近期的疲软之后，出现了一定程度的反弹。然而，市场情绪仍然冰点，投资者对比特币的未来走势保持谨慎和担忧。虽然一些分析师认为市场可能已经处于底部，但市场情绪和结构性因素仍然对比特币的价格产生影响。在未来一段时间内，比特币的价格走势仍存在不确定性，投资者需要密切关注市场动态，做出明智的投资决策。
In conclusion: After the recent weakness of the Bitcoin market, there has been a certain rebound. However, market sentiment remains frozen, and investors remain cautious and worried about the future of Bitcoin. While some analysts believe that the market may already be at the bottom, market sentiment and structural factors still have an impact on the price of the Bitcoin.
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