比特币价格在春节期间逆势上涨。
Bitcoin prices rose in reverse during the spring season.
根据全球币价网站CoinmarketCap，2020年1月24日至2020年1月3日，比特币价格突破9000美元大关，上涨幅度达11.3%。截至发稿，比特币价格约为9400美元。
According to the global currency website CoinmarkCap, between 24 January 2020 and 3 January 2020, the price of Bitcoin exceeded the $9,000 mark by 11.3 per cent, with a price of approximately $9,400 as of the date of publication.
春节期间比特币的价格走势
The price of Bitcoin during the Spring Festival.
比特币产量减半与中国疫情
Halve Bitcoin production and the Chinese epidemic
有业内人士认为，今年5月的比特币产量减半是影响因素之一。
According to practitioners, halving the production of bitcoin in May of this year was one of the factors affecting it.
一位OKEx分析师向澎湃新闻记者表示，比特币这段时间的上涨，主要原因包括比特币减产预期的影响，众所周知比特币将在今年5月左右减产，在历史上比特币每轮减产都会带来价格的上涨，目前市场对此有预期，因此推动了比特币价格的上升。
A OKEx analyst told journalists that the increase in Bitcoin during this period was due mainly to the expected impact of the production cut in Bitcoin, which is known to be about May this year, and that the historical price increases associated with each round drop in Bitcoin are now expected in the market, thus driving the price increase in Bitcoin.
上述分析师还表示，这也是去年下半年市场暴跌后的复苏反弹。自去年下半年开始，比特币进入下行通道，由高点的13000美元回落至6400美元；经过12月调整，在今年1月比特币市场进入上升通道，显示出复苏反弹的迹象了；春节期间的走势是这次复苏反弹的延续。
According to the analysts, this was also a rebound after the collapse of the market in the second half of last year. Beginning in the second half of last year, Bitcoin entered the lower route, falling from a high of $13,000 to $6,400; after a restructuring in December, the Bitcoin market entered the uphill route, showing signs of a recovery rebound; and the trend during the spring season was a continuation of the recovery.
外国媒体Coinspeaker报道中也表达了相似观点。Coinspeaker称，比特币减半是春节期间比特币价格上涨的原因之一。根据往年经验，比特币价格都会随着减半而上涨。不过人们对具体的原因有不同的看法。有人认为是减半造成的供需不平衡导致的比特币价格上涨，有人则认为减半并不会改变比特币价格，但减半引起的媒体关注会影响价格。
According to Coinspeaker, the halving of bitcoin is one of the reasons why the price of bitcoin rose during the Spring Festival. According to past years, the price of bitcoin will increase as the price of bitcoin is halved.
除此之外，根据Coinspeaker分析，中国新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情以及英国脱欧事件也是重要原因。根据报道，当前的医疗紧急情况导致了比特币价格上涨，而这一问题已经遍布全球，许多投资者将比特币作为避风港。另一方面，英国脱欧的担忧也导致了价格上涨。英国已经退出欧盟，但目前协议尚未达成，随着谈判的进一步进行，许多人对此后双方的发展抱有存疑态度。
In addition, according to Coinspeaker’s analysis, the new coronary virus pneumonia epidemic in China and the de-European affair in the United Kingdom are also important reasons. According to reports, the current medical emergency has led to an increase in the price of bitcoin, a problem that has spread across the globe, with many investors using bitcoin as a safe haven.
不过，上述OKEx分析师认为，中国当前的疫情并不是本轮上涨的影响因素。他表示，尽管当前疫情会对中小企业产生一定冲击，但中国经济状况总体稳定，民众也并不会因此对本国货币失去信心去购买比特币来实现货币替代。
However, according to the above-mentioned OKEx analyst, China’s current epidemic is not a factor in the current boom. He said that, although the current epidemic could have some impact on small and medium-sized enterprises, China’s economic situation was generally stable, and the population would not lose confidence in its own currency to buy bitcoin to replace it.
比特币未来价格走势
2月1日，国外科技网站U.today援引前华尔街交易员Tone Vays称，BTC将在9700美元以上的某个位置回调至不低于7900美元，此后，比特币可能反弹至10000美元以上。“在接下来的四年里，市场将非常接近牛市”，他表示。
On 1 February, U.today, a foreign technology website, quoted the former Wall Street dealer, Tone Vays, who stated that BTC would revert to no less than $7,900 at a position above $9,700, after which Bitcoin could rebound to over $10,000. “In the next four years, the market will be very close to the cattle market”, he said.
上述OKEx分析师则认为，目前距离比特币减产的时间点还有3个月左右，市场对此的预期和炒作才刚刚开始。未来3个月需要注意两个重要关口，一是10000美元的价格水平，比特币价格在到达此位置前会出现多次反复回调，波动较大；二是15000美元的价格水平，上一轮小牛市中比特币价格未能突破此价格水平，本轮上涨在15000美元的位置预计会出现剧烈震荡。
According to the above-mentioned OKEx analyst, the market’s expectations and speculation are only beginning to take place at about three months before the point at which Bitcoin’s output is reduced. Two important points need to be noted in the next three months: the $10,000 price level, which will be repeated and volatile several times before arriving at this position; and the $15,000 price level, which did not allow Bitcoin’s price to break through in the last round of calf, and a sharp shock is expected at the 15,000 dollar rise in the current round.
编辑：呼乐乐
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