有很多方法可以做空某种资产,每种方法的适用性取决于一个人的资源,风险承受能力和整体投资策略。以下将介绍做空比特币的7种方法。
There are many ways to empty an asset, and the applicability of each depends on a person’s resources, risk tolerance, and an overall investment strategy.
从比特币泡沫中获利的最简单方法就是当人们认为价格达到峰值时,卖出部分或全部的持仓,然后等待价格下跌,再买入更多。从技术上讲,这并不是做空,更确切地说,这是在缩小多头头寸。如果人们预计比特币价格在不久将会下跌,那么这是一个很好的选择。
The simplest way to profit from the Bitcoin bubble is to sell some or all of the holdings when the price is thought to peak, and then wait for the price to fall and buy more. Technically, this is not empty, and more precisely, it is reducing multiple positions.
技术分析师使用图表来帮助判断在投资中何时应该做多或做空。例如,技术分析师可能会寻找所谓的“双顶”作为即将到来的价格下跌的指标。如下图:
Technical analysts use graphs to help determine when investments should be made more or less empty. For example, technical analysts may look for so-called “double-tops” as an indicator of forthcoming price declines.
当比特币的价格超过原购买价格时,此时卖出比特币会实现收益并锁定利润。例如,假设有人最初以每枚6,000美元的价格购买比特币,但现在每枚硬币的价格为10,000美元。如果担心BTC将面临崩盘,投资者可以出售部分比特币并将4,000美元/ BTC收益立即收入囊中。
When the price of Bitcoin exceeds the original purchase price, Bitcoin is sold to realize the gains and locks the profits. For example, it is assumed that someone initially bought bitcoin at a price of US$6,000 per unit, but now the price is US$ 10,000 per coin. If there is a fear that BTC will face a collapse, investors can sell some bitcoin and include US$4,000/BTC proceeds in an immediate income bag.
如果判断错误,比特币不跌反涨了,那可能发生的最糟糕的事情也不过是投资者失去了他们本可以通过等待更长时间卖掉比特币所获得的一些利润。仍回到上一个例子,如果那个人以10,000美元的价格出售比特币,然后市场价格攀升至12,000美元,那么他们仍然会赚到4,000美元的利润,即使他们错过了额外追加的几千美元的机会。
The worst that could happen is that investors lose some of the profits they could have earned by waiting longer to sell bitcoin. Still, the last example is that if that person sells bitcoins at $10,000, then the market price rises to $12,000, they will still earn $4,000, even if they miss the extra thousands of dollars.
这种方法需要借入一定数量的比特币,然后立即卖出。如果比特币的价格随后下降,则可以购买最初借入的比特币的数量返还给出借者。
This method requires borrowing a certain amount of bitcoin and selling it immediately. If the price of bitcoin subsequently falls, the amount of bitcoin originally borrowed can be purchased and returned to the lender.
下图显示了股票等传统投资的做空流程; BTC的做空方式大致相同。
The figure below shows the process by which traditional investments, such as equities, are empty; BTC does so in roughly the same way.
例如,比特币价格为10,000美元,一位投资者认为它已准备好下跌。他可以借一个BTC并以10,000美元的价格出售。如果BTC的价格下降到6,000美元,那么他就可以购买一个比特币,将其还给BTC出借者,自己收益4,000美元的差价。
For example, the price of Bitcoin was $10,000, and one investor thought it was ready to fall. He could borrow a BTC and sell it at $10,000. If the BTC price fell to $6,000, he could buy a bitcoin and return it to the BTC lender, earning a difference of $4,000.
比特币投资信托基金(纳斯达克股票代码:GBTC)是一项公开交易的投资,跟踪BTC的市场价格,即BTC的价格上涨或下跌。该基金成立于2013年,但直到2017年才引起广泛关注,当时比特币突然受到主流人群的欢迎,人们开始寻找更多的买入方式。
The Bitcoin Investment Trust (NATTAC stock code: GBTC) is a publicly traded investment that tracks BTC’s market price, or BTC’s price increase or decline. The Fund was established in 2013 but did not attract much attention until 2017, when Bitcoin was suddenly welcomed by the mainstream and people began to look for more ways to buy.
比特币投资信托可以让人们投资比特币(无论是做空还是做多),而无需购买实际的加密货币。只需登录你选择的经纪公司的网站,并按照提示做空基金(或拿起电话并打电话给你的经纪人,如果你喜欢这种老式方式的话)。
The Bitcoin Investment Trust allows people to invest in bitcoin (whether empty or more) without having to buy actual encrypted currency.
虽然比特币投资信托基金经理尽最大努力地追踪BTC的表现,但随着BTC的上涨和下跌,价格追踪可能仍然不够及时和精准,特别是在极度波动期。极度波动期内,当投资者频繁地购买或出售基金时,也会造成基金的波动与BTC本身的波动形成差异,从而影响该基金的表现。
While the Bitcoin Investment Trust Fund manager has done his best to track BTC performance, price tracking may still be less timely and precise as BTC rises and falls, especially during periods of extreme volatility. During periods of extreme volatility, when investors frequently buy or sell funds, they can also cause differences between the Fund’s volatility and that of BTC itself, thereby affecting the Fund’s performance.
此外,基金的管理费也会影响投资者的利润。目前,比特币投资信托基金收取2%的年度管理费,这是相对较高的。根据Morningstar最近的一项研究,2017年的平均年度基金费用为0.52%。
In addition, the Fund’s management fees affect investors’ profits. Currently, the Bitcoin investment trust funds charge a relatively high 2 per cent annual management fee. According to a recent study by Morningstar, the average annual fund cost in 2017 is 0.52 per cent.
期权合约允许投资者在未来指定的某一天购买以指定价格买入或卖出标的资产的权利。购买“看涨期权”选项使交易者有权在以后购买该资产,而“看跌期权”选项使交易者有权出售该资产。如果投资者判断BTC的价格将来会下跌,则可以买入BTC看跌期权或卖出BTC看涨期权。
A options contract allows an investor to buy or sell the asset at a specified price at a given date in the future. The option of purchasing an “enhancement” entitles the trader to purchase the asset at a later date, while the option of “dropping over” entitles the trader to sell the asset.
如果购买期权合约,买方需要向卖出合约的一方支付保费。保费将根据合约的大小,到期日,卖方对有关资产是否会上涨或下跌的信念等因素而有所不同。期权合约的好处之一是,如果购买了期权合约,在市场行情判断错误的情况下,买方可以不使用它,简单地让合约过期就行了。
The premium will vary according to the size of the contract, the maturity date, and the seller’s belief in whether the assets in question will rise or fall. One of the benefits of the option contract is that, if the option contract is purchased, the buyer may, in the case of market miscalculation, waive it and simply allow the contract to expire.
例如,有人可能会以10,000美元的执行价格购买看跌期权以卖出BTC,并且有一个月的到期日期(这意味着他们可以选择在购买合约的一个月内以执行价格出售比特币)。如果BTC在购买合约后的一周内跌至6,000美元,他们可以以6,000美元的价格购买BTC,然后行使期权,以每个10,000美元的价格将这些比特币卖给卖出期权的人。在这种情况下,每个BTC的利润为4,000美元,再减去合约支付的保费就是实际盈收。
For example, it is possible that someone might buy a fallhold at an enforcement price of $10,000 to sell BTC, with a one-month maturity date (which means that they can choose to sell bitcoin at the purchase price within one month of the purchase contract). If BTC falls to $6,000 within a week after the purchase of the contract, they can buy BTC at a price of $6,000 and then exercise the option to sell the bitcoins to those who sell the options at a price of $10,000. In this case, the profit of each BTC is $4,000, less the premium paid by the contract is a real gain.
另一方面,如果交易者持有执行价格为10,000美元的看跌期权且BTC在整个月内保持在该数额之上,那他们可以简单地让合约到期而不使用它。在这种情况下,他们会为合约保费出钱,但至少他们不会被迫亏本行使合同。
If, on the other hand, the traders hold the option to make an execution price of $10,000 and keep BTC above that amount throughout the month, they can simply let the contract expire without using it. In such cases, they will pay for the contract, but at least they will not be forced to perform the contract at a loss.
期货合约是在特定日期买入或卖出特定金额的标的资产的合约。在比特币期货合约中,买方承诺在约定日期以特定价格购买一定数量的BTC,而卖方承诺在该日期以该价格向买方出售该数量的BTC。
The futures contract is a contract for the purchase or sale of a specified amount of assets on a specified date. In the Bitcoin futures contract, the buyer undertook to purchase a certain amount of BTC at a specified price on an agreed date, at which date the seller undertook to sell the amount of BTC to the buyer at that price.
这些合约原来旨在保护买家和卖家免受小麦,石油和贵金属等商品价格波动的影响。今天,交易者可以在各种不同的资产上获得期货合约,包括BTC。
These contracts were intended to protect buyers and sellers from commodity price fluctuations such as wheat, oil, and precious metals. Today, traders can obtain futures contracts on a variety of assets, including BTC.
如果你想做空比特币,你可以成为期货合约的卖家。例如,比特币期货合约中的卖方承诺从今天开始,三个月后以每个10,000美元的价格出售10 BTC,如果在合约到期之前BTC的价格已降至6000USD,则卖方将获利4,000 USD每BTC,或总计40,000美元。
If you want to be an empty bitcoin, you can be a seller of futures contracts. For example, the seller in the bitcoin futures contract promised to sell 10 BTCs at a price of $10,000 each three months later, and if the BTC price had fallen to 6,000 USD before the contract expired, the seller would have earned 4,000 USDs per BTC, or a total of $40,000.
比特币期货可在芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE)和芝加哥商品交易所(CME)获得。除此之外,多家主流交易所也都提供了比特币期货交易。
Bitcoin futures are available on the Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOE) and the Chicago Commodity Exchange (CME). In addition, several mainstream exchanges also offer Bitcoins futures.
差价合约(CFD)是一种期货合约,但在结算合约时,只需交易法定货币,而不用交易实际的比特币。合同的买方和卖方同意在合同结束之日以法定货币结算BTC价格的任何变化。差价合约交易为场外交易。
The difference contract (CFD) is a futures contract, but when the contract is settled, only the legal currency is traded instead of the actual bitcoin. The buyer and seller of the contract agree to settle any change in the BTC price in the legal currency on the date of the end of the contract.
例如,投资者可能会在未来的一周内将BTC出售差价合约,价格为10,000美元。如果BTC的价格在合同到期之日为6,000美元,买方将按合同规定支付每BTC 4,000美元。另一方面,如果BTC的价格上涨到12,000美元,卖方则欠买方每BTC 2,000美元。
For example, investors may sell BTC for a price difference of US$ 10,000 in the coming week. If the BTC price is US$6,000 on the due date of the contract, the buyer will pay US$ 4,000 per BTC. On the other hand, if the BTC price rises to US$ 12,000, the seller will owe the buyer US$ 2,000 per BTC.
如果买卖双方达成一致,一些差价合约允许各方提前退出合约。例如,如果交易者在短期差价合约中持续几天并且BTC的价格飙升,交易者可能会决定减少损失并以当前BTC价格买入合约,而不是等待整整一周。
If sellers and sellers agree, some price differentials allow parties to withdraw early. For example, if the traders have a few days in short-term price differential contracts and BTC prices have soared, the traders may decide to reduce their losses and buy the contract at the current BTC prices instead of waiting for a full week.
差价合约可以用来对冲一个人的损失(即如果一个人已经拥有BTC并且认为它可能会走向熊市,差价合约可以保护自己的资产)。无论市场发生什么情况,一个拥有BTC并出售差价合约的交易者都会赚到一些钱:如果比特币上涨,BTC的价值会增长,但如果比特币价格下跌,差价合约将会获得收益。
The difference contract can be used to hedge a person’s loss (i.e., if a person already owns BTC and believes that it may go to the bear market, the difference contract can protect his assets). Whatever the situation in the market, a trader who owns BTC and sells the difference contract will earn some money: if Bitcoin rises, the BTC’s value will increase, but if Bitcoin falls, the difference contract will gain.
预测市场让用户预测并押注某些事件的结果。
The predictive market allows users to predict and bet on the results of certain events.
大多数预测市场允许用户创建或选择他们想要下注的现有预测。例如,关于比特币表现的预测 ,投资者可以在该事件上购买“股票”。如果你认为该预测是正确的,那么可以购买这种“股票”即做多;如果你认为这是错的,您可以卖出这种“股票”即做空。为了做空比特币,你可以找一个估计BTC的价格会下降的预测并做多,或者找到一个说BTC价格会上涨的预测并做空。
Most predicting markets allow users to create or choose existing forecasts that they want to place notes on. For example, with respect to bitcoin performance, investors can buy “stocks” on the event. If you think the forecast is correct, then buy more; if you think it is wrong, sell the “stocks” and empty. To be free of bitcoins, you can look for an estimate that BTC prices will fall and do more, or find a forecast that BTC prices will rise and empty.
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