熊市已经结束，BTC长期底部形成！

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　　据Daily Hodl消息，经济学家、数字货币分析师Alex Krüger最新分析指出：

According to Daily Hodl, a recent analysis by an economist and digital currency analyst, Alex Krüger:

　　2018年数字货币市场的熊市在几个月前已经结束。

The Bear City of the Digital Currency Market 2018 ended a few months ago.

　　BTC价格在去年11月至12月触底后，行情两次触及200日均线这一重要趋势支撑未破。

The important trend of

　　并在本月内走出一波加速反弹，基本完成了这一空转多趋势逆转。

　　对于BTC来说，只要价格能够突破4200这一“近在眼前”的阻力位置，趋势性上涨将正式启动。

For BTC, as long as prices are able to break through the “near-in-the-horizon” resistance position of 4200, the trend rise will be officially triggered.

　　Alex Krüger表示，市场的趋势已经形成，舆论观点如何并无法改变这一“事实”。

Alex Krüger stated that market trends had emerged and that public opinion views could not change this “fact”.

　　对于经济学家、数字货币分析师Alex Krüger的观点，黑钻君比较认同，主要基于以下三个方面考虑：

For the opinion of the economist and digital currency analyst, Alex Krüger, the Black Drilling King is more in agreement, based on three main considerations:

　　第一、BTC历史跌幅

First, BTC history drop

　　上一轮熊市，比特币高点8000，最低点1000，跌幅87.5%；

Last round of Bear City, 8000 higher than Bitcoin, 1000 lower and 87.5 per cent lower;

　　这一轮高点20000美金下来，跌到3150美金，跌幅达85%；

The round dropped by $20,000 to $3150, a drop of 85 per cent;

　　由于现在比特币市值远超上一轮熊市，按照规模越大，波动越小的规律，本轮熊市的跌幅会小于上一轮熊市的跌幅。

As the market value of Bitcoin is now far greater than that of the previous bear market, the larger the size and the less volatile the pattern, the fall of this bear market will be smaller than that of the previous.

　　所以从空间上来说，跌幅已经足够。

So in space, the drop is enough.

　　第二、BTC挖矿成本

Second, BTC mining costs

　　2018年12月，比特币3200美金的时候，比特币的价格已经低于挖矿价格挖矿成本，不少矿机被迫关机，出现了矿机甩卖。

In December 2018, when Bitcoin was $3,200, the price of Bitcoin was already lower than the cost of mining at the mining price, and a number of miners were forced to shut down and were sold.

　　根据摩根大通1月24日公布的一项报告，第四季度全球比特币的生产加权现金平均成本为4060美元。

According to a report released by Morgan Chase on 24 January, the average cost of global production-weighted cash in Bitcoin in the fourth quarter was $4060.

　　而目前比特币价格在4200美元以下，这意味着现在比特币的价格已经低于挖矿成本。

The current price of Bitcoin is below $4,200, which means that the price of bitcoin is now lower than the cost of mining.

　　第三、熊市时间周期

Third, Bear City Time Cycle

　　上一轮熊市，2013年12月牛市见顶，于2015年1月熊市见底，调整了13个月。

The last round of bear markets, which peaked in December 2013, ended in January 2015 with a 13-month adjustment.

　　这一轮牛市2017年12月牛市见顶，到2018年12月的最低点，调整了12个月。

The bull market peaked in December 2017 and was adjusted for 12 months at its lowest point in December 2018.

　　和上轮熊市最低点时间基本相等了，从时间上来看，熊市时间可能足够了。

It is almost the same as the lowest time in the city of the last bear, which may be sufficient in terms of time.

　　对于短期行情，黑钻评级分析师认为：

For short-term transactions, the Black Diamond Rating Analyst believes:

　　早上8点BTC刚刚出现异常波动，8点20分左右快速下探至4069.86美元，随后又反向拉升，最高涨至4127美元，短时振幅达1.4%。

At 8 a.m., the BTC just experienced abnormal fluctuations, and at around 8.20 a.m., it quickly arrived at $4069.86, followed by a reverse pull-up, up to $4127, with a short amplitude of 1.4 per cent.

　　目前BTC整体行情走势将在4000—4200点位之间震荡，若突破4200点，可以持续持有；

(a) The current overall BTC trend will be a shock between 4,000 and 4200 points, which can be held on a continuous basis if it breaks 4200 points;

　　随着成交量维持放大状态，短期看来BTC活跃度很难大幅度萎缩，使得价格突破4200美元的几率会很高。

, as transactions remain magnified, it appears that BTC activity will hardly shrink significantly in the short term, leaving a high probability of prices exceeding $4,200.

　　目前走势比较平稳，波动不是很大，只要没有突发的利空，暴跌的可能性不是太大。

The current trend is relatively smooth, volatility is not very high, and as long as there is no sudden windfall, the likelihood of a collapse is not too high.

　　通过Coinmaket数据查询，大家可以发现，从2019年，1月份开始一直到现在，BTC价格从3400点曲折向上，一直到现在的4100点附近。

Through the Coinmaket data query, it can be found that from 2019, January until now, BTC prices have been turned upwards from 3,400 points to the present close to 4100 points.

　　这说明比特币的底部正在逐渐上移，未来大规模回调的概率不是很大。

This suggests that the bottom of Bitcoin is gradually moving upwards and that the probability of large-scale returns in the future is not very high.

　　对于长期行情趋势，黑钻君依旧认为：

For a long-term trend, Black Drizzle still thinks:

　　2019年，加密货币行业的牛市不会来，全年多为周期震荡，底部逐渐抬升。

In 2019, the cattle market in the crypto-currency industry did not come, with more cyclical shocks throughout the year and a gradual rise in the bottom.

　　年底可能会稍有大的上扬，预计在4500--5000美金附近徘徊，很难突破5000美金这个关键阻力位。

At the end of the year, the strong may have risen slightly, and is expected to wander around $4,500-$5,000, making it difficult to break through the key resistance position of $5,000.

　　因为在2018年，一年的时间里跌逾八成之后，巨量的套牢盘对于市场的持续性打压将长期存在，比特币在2019年要突破关键阻力位，非常困难。

Because in 2018, after falling by more than 80 per cent in one year, a large set of locks will remain in place for a long time, and it will be very difficult for Bitcoin to break through key resistance positions in 2019.

　　欢迎对去中心化区块链项目评级感兴趣的朋友扫码下面二维码；或者点击文末“阅读原文”详细查看项目信息。

Friends interested in decentralizing block chain project ratings are invited to scan two-dimensional codes below or to click at the end of the text to read the original text for details of the project information.

本文首发于微信公众号：黑钻财经。文章内容属作者个人观点，不代表和讯网立场。投资者据此操作，风险请自担。

The article is written in the author’s personal opinion and does not represent the network’s position.

（责任编辑： HN666）

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