①目前机构持有的比特币净多头头寸与对冲基金持有的净空头头寸差额已到达历史新高,这让卖空者压力倍增;
1 The difference between the net excess of bitcoin held by the current institution and the net empty position held by the hedge fund has reached an all-time high, multiplying the pressure on sellers;
②分析师指出,只要比特币价格回到71000美元,超过1.5亿美元的空头头寸将进入清算;
The analyst noted that as long as the Bitcoin price returned to US$ 71,000, the empty position of more than US$ 150 million would enter liquidation;
③大规模轧空将导致比特币价格垂直上涨,甚至涨破10万美元。
The large-scale crash will lead to a vertical increase in bitcoin prices, or even a deceleration of $100,000.
财联社3月28日讯(编辑 马兰)比特币卖空者正在感受到不小压力。当价格反弹至70000美元以上后,有人猜测,比特币的上涨趋势将压过下跌情绪,进而推动比特币价格突破80000美元。
When prices rebounded to over $70,000, it was assumed that Bitcoin’s upward trend would push the price of bitcoin over $80,000.
行业观察者Kobeissi Letter指出,比特币空头目前受到挤压,主要因素在于机构多头头寸和对冲基金的空头头寸之间的差额已达到历史新高。其中,对冲基金的净空头合约近15000份,但机构的净多头合约达到近20000份。
Industry observer Kobeissi Letter notes that the billboard is currently squeezed, mainly because the difference between the agency’s multi-head position and the hedge fund’s empty position is at an all-time high. Of these, the hedge fund’s net head contracts are close to 15,000, but the agency’s net multiple contracts are close to 20,000.
与此同时,它分析道,比特币价格下跌的持续时间正在缩短,且跌幅有限。过去7天中,上周三比特币触及最低点61224美元,然后在周二触及峰值71551美元。
At the same time, it analyses that the duration of the fall in bitcoin prices is shrinking and that the drop is limited. In the last seven days, three bitcoins hit the lowest point of $61,224 last week, and then hit the peak of $7,1551 on Tuesday.
这种局面显然对空头来说更加棘手。根据CoinGlass计算,只要比特币价格达到71000美元(目前为70500美元左右),价值1.5618亿美元的空头头寸将被迫进入清算;如果价格进一步攀升至75000美元,则有38.5亿美元的空头头寸面临清算。
This situation is clearly even more difficult for the empty. CoinGlass calculates that, as long as the price of Bitcoin reaches $71,000 (currently around $70,500), $156.18 million in empty positions will be forced into liquidation; if prices rise further to $75,000, $3.85 billion in empty positions will face liquidation.
加密货币交易所Swyftx首席分析师Pav Hundal预测,大规模轧空可能会推动比特币价格达到前所未有的历史新高。
The chief analyst of the encrypted currency exchange, Swyftx, Pav Hundal, predicted that large-scale crashes could drive bitcoin prices to unprecedentedly high prices.
他补充称,价格的波动程度超出预期,如果市场看到空头挤压,比特币价格可能直线上涨至80000美元。人们甚至可以期待一下在今年某一刻看到10万美元的价格。
He added that prices fluctuated to a greater degree than expected, and that the price of bitcoin could rise to $80,000 if the market saw a squeeze. One could even look at the price of $100,000 some time this year.
拉锯战
Ragsaw War >/strang >
Swan Bitcoin首席执行官Cory Klippsten表示,他很喜欢观看多头头寸和空头头寸之间的血腥拉锯战,但最终,总有一方会惨败而归。而目前两个阵营都在拼命拉拢更多的资本,试图捍卫自己的观点。
The Chief Executive Officer of Swan Bitcoin, Cory Klipsten, said that he enjoyed watching the bloody hand-off between multiple and empty positions, but eventually one side would lose. The two camps were now struggling to build more capital to defend their views.
Hundal则指出,这并不是一场经典的牛熊之战,而是一场风险游戏。而资产管理公司现在持有的比特币长期敞口已创下历史新高,他建议资管公司们同时做空和做多来减轻下行风险。
Hundal argues that this is not a classic war of cattle and bears, but a risk game. And the company’s long-standing exposure to bitcoin now holds a record high, and he suggests that the management companies do both nothing and do more to mitigate downside risks.
Klippsten还强调,比特币交易活动增加可能是因为4月21日到来的减半事件,从历史上看,该事件的特点就是催生大量投机活动,交易者买入谣言并卖出消息,这可能会导致比特币价格出现短暂下跌
Klippsten also stressed that the increase in bitcoin trading activity could be attributed to the halving of the 21 April incident, which was historically characterized by the creation of a large amount of speculation, the buying of rumours and the sale of information by traders, which could lead to a brief fall in bitcoin prices.
消息面上,本周有交易员表示,伦交所将在5月建设比特币和以太币交易所交易票据的市场,这为加密市场注入了新的强心剂。各大资管公司也继而增持比特币,作为投资多元化的一部分。
According to sources, this week’s traders have said that Lunton will build a market for Bitcoin and E-Ten exchange instruments in May, which will inject a new hard-core agent into the cryptomarket. The major money-management companies will then build up bitcoins as part of their investment diversification.
针对比特币ETF资金流入放缓,也有分析师给出并不悲观的看法。Bitfinex分析师称,ETF净流入资金放缓不值得担忧,因为主要流出都是发生在Grayscale基金。交易者放弃该基金是因为其收取费用较高,且一些人也希望获利了结。
Bitfinex analysts argue that the slowdown in net ETF inflows is not a cause for concern, since the main outflows are from the Grayscale Fund. Dealers abandon the Fund because of the higher fees they charge and some want to make a profit.
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