火币联合创始人：比特币处于熊市早期，下一轮牛市恐怕要到2025年

　　火币联合创始人杜均认为，如果以过去的价格周期做参考，比特币目前处于熊市的早期阶段，下一轮牛市可能要等到2024年底或2025年初才会出现，

Co-founder Dou agreed that, if the past price cycle were used as a reference, Bitcoin was currently in the early stages of Bear City, and that the next round of cattle could wait until the end of 2024 or early 2025.

　　杜均表示，比特币牛市与每隔几年发生一次的“减半”过程密切相关，下一次“减半”事件将发生在2024年，他认为届时比特币可能会出现另一轮牛市

According to Dow, the city of Bitcoin is closely linked to the “half” process that takes place every few years, and the next “half” will take place in 2024, when, in his view, another cow could be found in Bitcoin.

　　所谓“减半”，并不是指比特币总量变化，而是比特币产能的变化。比特币网络是由一个个区块连接的，每个区块里会有一定数量的比特币作为奖励。按照比特币网络的规则，每隔 21 万个区块，比特币奖励数量会减少一半。因为比特币每一个区块的产生速度大约为10分钟，所以 21 万个区块的产生时间大约为四年。

The word “half” does not mean a change in the amount of bitcoin, but a change in bitcoin capacity. The Bitcoin network is connected to one block, each of which has a certain amount of bitcoins as an incentive. According to the Bitcoin network, the amount of bitcoins is reduced by half every 210,000 blocks. Because each bitcoin is generated at a rate of about 10 minutes, the time of generation of 210,000 blocks is about four years.

　　上一次减半发生在2020年5月，到2021年，比特币突破了68000美元的历史高点。2016年发生的减半后也出现了类似的情况。第二年，也就是2017年，比特币创下了当时的历史新高。

The last half occurred in May 2020, and by 2021, Bitcoin passed a historic high of $68,000. A similar situation followed when it halved in 2016. The second year, in 2017, Bitcoin reached a historic high at that time.

　　但在这两个高峰之后，比特币价格都出现暴跌。目前，比特币价格较去年11月的历史高点下跌了近40%，但仍高于今年1月的一些低点。

After both peaks, however, bitcoin prices fell sharply. At present, bitcoin prices have fallen by almost 40 per cent compared to the historical highs of last November, but they are still higher than some of the lows of January this year.

　　杜均说：“如果这种循环继续下去，我们现在处于熊市的早期阶段，”

"If this cycle continues, we are now in the early stages of Bear City."

　　他说：“很难准确预测，因为还有很多其他因素也会影响市场，比如包括战争在内的地缘政治问题，或者最近的新冠疫情也会影响市场。”

He said, “It is difficult to predict accurately, because there are many other factors that can affect markets, such as geopolitical issues, including war, or the recent new crowning epidemic.”

　　“按照这个周期，要到2024年底到2025年初，我们才能迎来比特币的下一个牛市。”

“In this cycle, between the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, we will not be able to reach the next cattle market in Bitcoin.”

责任编辑：于健 SF069