2013年7月，Winklevoss兄弟提交了首个比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）申请，随后多家公司纷纷效仿，加密货币基金灰度（Grayscale Investments）也申请将旗下Grayscale比特币信托（GBTC）转化为ETF，但美国证券交易委员会（SEC）均以“容易受到市场操纵”为由驳回了这些申请。
In July 2013, the Winklevoss brothers submitted their first Bitcoin Exchange Trading Fund (ETF) application, which was followed by a number of companies, and Grayscale Investments, which also applied for the conversion of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) under the flag, which were rejected by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the grounds that they were “vulnerable to market manipulation”.
10年后，转机终于出现。2023年8月，美国华盛顿特区巡回上诉法院认为，SEC拒绝Grayscale Investments的比特币现货ETF申请是错误的，称SEC的决定是“武断和反复无常的”，未能解释其对比特币期货ETF和现货ETF的不同处理方式，迫使SEC重新考虑其立场。
In August 2023, the U.S. Court of Appeals for Circuits in Washington, D.C., held that the SEC had wrongly rejected the Bitcoin spot ETF application of Grayscale Investments, claiming that the SEC decision was “arbitrary and capricious” and failed to explain the different treatment of its bitcoins ETFs and spot ETFs, forcing the EC to reconsider its position.
事实上，去年的历史性判决已经暗示，比特币ETF的获批大概率只是时间问题。因此在法院对Grayscale申请案的判决后，比特币已上涨了约70%。
Indeed, last year’s historic judgment implied that the approximate approval rate of the Bitcoin ETF was only a matter of time. Thus, after the Court’s decision in the Grayscale application, the amount of Bitcoin had risen by about 70 per cent.
2024年伊始，屡败屡战的比特币ETF申请终于获批。美东时间1月10日，SEC主席詹斯勒（Gary Gensler）宣布，SEC批准了首批在美国上市的比特币ETF，包括贝莱德、富达、景顺、VanEck等11家公司申请的比特币ETF获得通过。
At the beginning of 2024, the defeat of the ever-repeated Bitcoin ETF application was finally granted. On January 10, US Eastern Time, SEC President Gary Gensler announced that the SEC had approved the first Bitcoin ETF applications from 11 companies listed in the United States, including Belede, Fuda, Gyeongshun, Van Eckk and others.
对此，SEC主席詹斯勒坦言，鉴于此前的法院裁决，批准比特币ETF是“最可持续的前进道路”，但他也表示，SEC并不认可比特币。
In response, Chairman Jensler of the SEC stated that the approval of the Bitcoin ETF was “the most sustainable way forward” in the light of previous court decisions, but he also stated that the SEC did not endorse Bitcoin.
但不管怎样，十年磨一剑，SEC批准比特币ETF或成比特币和加密货币行业的“分水岭时刻”，加密货币行业与SEC之间的长期拉锯战终于告一段落，在这场特殊的战斗中，加密货币行业暂时宣告胜利。不过，未来的路还很长，加密货币行业将走向何方？
But in any case, ten years of a sword, SEC approval of the Bitcoin ETF or the Bitcoin and Encrypted Currency industries, and the long-standing Laser between the crypto-currency industry and the SEC, in which the crypto-currency sector temporarily wins. However, there is still a long way to go, and where will the crypto-currency industry go?
比特币ETF历时10年终上市
BitcoinETF was listed at the end of 10 years.
在经历了美国SEC官方账号被盗的乌龙后，SEC批准比特币ETF终于尘埃落定。
After having experienced the theft of the official account number of the United States SEC, the SEC approved the closure of the Bitcoin ETF.
上海社会科学院信息研究所助理研究员王滢波对21世纪经济报道记者表示，美国SEC正式批准比特币现货ETF上市交易，这无疑是加密货币的破圈时刻，将为以比特币为代表的加密货币带来巨大的发展机遇。
Wang Xiaobo, an assistant researcher at the Information Institute of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, stated to the 21st Century Economic Reporter that the official approval by the United States SEC of spot ETF transactions in Bitcoin was undoubtedly a break-up in crypto-currency and would offer great development opportunities for the encoded currency represented by bitcoin.
比特币ETF历时10年终于上市，这将改变比特币的投资面貌，让机构和散户投资者在不直接持有比特币的情况下，也能投资比特币。
Bitcoin ETF has been on the market for 10 years, which will change the investment profile of bitcoin and allow institutions and bulk investors to invest bitcoin without directly holding bitcoin.
在上海财经大学金融学院副院长曹啸看来，2021年10月SEC批准比特币期货ETF上市，如今又批准了比特币现货ETF上市，申请发行比特币ETF的机构不乏贝莱德这样的传统资管机构，这进一步确认了比特币的资产属性，比特币实际上已经成为主流的配置资产。
According to Cao Cao, Vice-President of the Financial Institute of the Shanghai University of Finance and Finance, in October 2021, SEEC approved the listing of the Bitcoin futures ETF, and now approved the listing of the Bitcoin spot ETFs, as well as institutions applying to issue the Bitcoin ETF, such as Belede, which further confirms the asset attributes of Bitcoin, which has in fact become the mainstream asset allocation.
从运作模式看，发行商们将从加密货币交易所购买实物比特币，并交由Coinbase Global等托管机构储存，再由后者发行ETF。这些比特币ETF将在纳斯达克、纽约证券交易所和芝加哥期权交易所上市。此外，为了解决SEC对市场操纵方面的担忧，纳斯达克和芝加哥期权交易所已经与美国最大的加密货币交易所Coinbase建立了一个市场监督机制。
In terms of mode of operation, issuers will purchase in kind bitcoins from an encrypted currency exchange, which will be stored by trustees such as Coinbase Global, which will issue ETFs. These bitcoins ETFs will be marketed at NASDAQ, the New York Stock Exchange, and the Chicago Stock Exchange. Moreover, to address SEC concerns about market manipulation, NASDAQ and the Chicago Stock Exchange have established a market oversight mechanism with Coinbase, the largest encrypted currency exchange in the United States.
中国（上海）自贸区研究院金融研究室主任刘斌对21世纪经济报道记者表示，这次比特币ETF通过，也说明美国监管部门对比特币的态度发生较大变化，根本原因还是美国已经围绕比特币等加密货币建立起相应的监管框架。以比特币为代表的加密货币被多数金融机构所接受，很多金融机构正围绕比特币等开发相关产品。
Liu Bin, Director of the Financial Research Unit of the China Institute of Trade Research (Shanghai), told the 21st Century economic reporter that the adoption of the Bitcoin ETF also showed a significant change in the attitude of the US regulatory authority, and that the underlying reason is that the US has established a corresponding regulatory framework around encrypted currencies, such as bitcoin. The encoded currency, represented by bitcoin, is accepted by most financial institutions, many of which are developing products around bitcoin.
在比特币ETF获批后，市场乐观情绪升温。作为超级乐观者的代表，美国投资机构Fundstrat Global Advisors联合创始人兼研究主管Tom Lee甚至表示，随着ETF获得批准，需求激增，比特币可能在未来12个月内跃升至10万至15万美元，超过2021年11月达到的约6.9万美元的历史高点。在未来五年内，比特币可能飙升至50万美元。
As a representative of the super-optimists, Tom Lee, the co-founder and research director of the US investment agency Fundstrat Global Advisors, even said that, with the approval of the ETF and the surge in demand, Bitcoins could leapfrog to $100,000 to $150,000 over the next 12 months, exceeding the historical high of about $69,000 reached in November 2021. In the next five years, Bitcoins could surge to $500,000.
不过，更大的意义并不在此。曹啸表示，美国SEC批准比特币ETF对于比特币市场的影响本身并不重要，重要的是反映了美国监管机构的意图：通过比特币市场的发展，引导金融机构和科技公司在区块链技术及其运用上进行投入，从而促进美国金融体系的创新发展。
Cao Cao said that the US SEC’s approval of the Bitcoin ETF’s impact on the Bitcoin market was not important in itself. It was important to reflect the intention of US regulators to promote innovation in the US financial system through the development of the Bitcoin market, leading financial institutions and technology companies to invest in block-chain technology and its application.
加密货币行业迎来“分水岭时刻”？
The encrypt currency industry is approaching a “watershed moment”?
随着美国SEC批准比特币ETF，备受争议的比特币终于在某种意义上从“小众资产”成为“主流资产”。
With the approval of the Bitcoin ETF by the United States SEC, the controversial Bitcoin finally became, in a sense, a “mainstream asset” from the “small group of assets”.
2021年比特币期货ETF获得美国证券交易委员会批准，跟踪的是按事先约定价格买入或卖出比特币的协议。但比特币期货ETF无法精确地追踪价格走势，而且期货合约的展期成本也会侵蚀收益，因此对许多投资者来说并不理想。
Bitcoin’s futures ETF, approved by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission in 2021, tracks agreements to buy or sell bitcoins at pre-agreed prices. But Bitcoin’s futures ETF cannot track price movements accurately, and the extension cost of futures contracts erodes returns, and is therefore not ideal for many investors.
对于加密货币行业来说，现货比特币ETF获批是重大胜利，在监管严格的证券交易所上市，允许投资者通过传统股票账户持有，获得比特币敞口，而无需承担直接持有比特币的复杂性和风险，这提高了加密货币行业的合法性，并将比特币进一步推向主流。
For the crypto-currency industry, the approval of the spot bitcoin ETF was a major victory, and its listing on a highly regulated stock exchange allowed investors to hold bitcoin through traditional stock accounts and to gain access to bitcoin without having to bear the complexities and risks of direct possession of bitcoin, which increased the legitimacy of the crypto-currency industry and pushed bitcoin further into the mainstream.
王滢波对记者分析称，此前以比特币为代表的加密货币及交易仅限于小众市场，大多数投资者对于加密货币钱包都是一头雾水，交易门槛相对较高，现货比特币ETF的获批意味着参与加密货币投资的门槛大幅降低，比特币将从小众市场走向大众市场，参与的资金规模将倍增，在反身性的作用下，上涨可能会带来更多上涨，比特币短期内存在巨大的投机空间。
Wang Xiaobo analysed journalists that the previously encrypted currency and transactions represented by Bitcoin were limited to small markets, that most investors were confused about encrypted currency wallets, that the trading threshold was relatively high, that the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF meant that the threshold for participation in encrypted currency investment would be significantly reduced, that bitcoin would move from small markets to mass markets, that the scale of participation would multiply and that, with its counterproductive effects, the rise might lead to more increases, and that Bitcoin would have significant speculative space in the short term.
比特币成为主流配置资产，意味着未来会有更多机构投资者参与比特币的交易。曹啸对21世纪经济报道记者表示，比特币正在成为机构投资者主导的市场。从总体上看，比特币现货ETF推出以后，比特币市场会趋于成熟，机构投资者的进入意味着会有更多类型的相关金融产品在ETF之后陆续出现，比特币的价格波动会趋于平缓，风险控制的成本会进一步降低，从而使得比特币市场趋于成熟。因此，这是一个重大的分水岭。
Bitcoin became a mainstream asset allocation, meaning that more institutional investors would be involved in Bitcoin transactions in the future. According to Cao Cao’s 21st Century Economic Reporter, Bitcoin is becoming a market dominated by institutional investors.
但未来仍需一分为二地看待。刘斌表示，短期内，比特币ETF获批对加密货币行业带来利好，有利于资金进入市场，推高比特币价格。围绕比特币相关的准金融产品也会不断出现，会进入更多金融机构和个人投资视野。但长期看，比特币和加密货币行业发展还要解决很多现实问题，比如其自身价值问题、如何与传统金融生态融合问题等。
Liu Bin states that, in the short term, Bitcoin ETF has been approved to benefit the crypto-currency industry, facilitate access to markets, and push bitcoin prices. The quasi-financial products surrounding bitcoin will also continue to emerge, gaining access to more financial institutions and individual investment horizons.
此外，更大的市场参与度也意味着更多和更强的监管，其风险也不可小觑。王滢波分析称，一方面，之前的比特币交易存在着大量的灰色地带，例如洗钱和非法交易，在比特币的交易中占据极高的份额，随着现货ETF的获批，比特币的交易透明度也会越来越高，对此类非法交易的打击力度会越来越强，从而直接影响比特币的市值。
In addition, greater market participation means more and stronger regulation, and the risks are not insignificant. Wang Xiaobo analyses, on the one hand, that there was a large amount of grey area in previous bitcoin transactions, such as money-laundering and illegal transactions, which account for a very high share of bitcoin transactions, and that, with the approval of spot ETFs, Bitcoin’s transactions will become more transparent and will be hit more and more strongly by such illegal transactions, thus directly affecting the market value of bitcoins.
另一方面，货币即主权，比特币的大规模使用可能会逐渐侵蚀各国的货币主权，继而影响到铸币税带来的财务收入，加剧政府的财务困境，这显然是各国政府无法容忍的，比特币的使用范围越大，对于比特币打击的力度就会越大。比特币ETF的获批短期内可能是一个巨大利好，但长期风险也不可忽视。
On the other hand, the large-scale use of currency, namely sovereignty, by bitcoin, may gradually erode the monetary sovereignty of countries and, in turn, affect the fiscal revenues generated by the casting tax and exacerbate the financial difficulties of Governments, which are clearly intolerable to Governments, and the greater the use of bitcoin, the greater the impact on bitcoin. The short-term benefits of Bitcoin ETF’s approval may be enormous, but the long-term risks cannot be ignored.
从积极的角度看，曹啸分析称，虽然比特币市场的风险较高，对比特币的运用前景也存在巨大的争议，但是比特币关系到基于区块链的金融体系底层技术架构的发展，数字货币、数字金融和金融科技的发展之间是一个不可分割的系统性问题，并不能孤立地看待比特币市场，比特币本身不重要，但是比特币背后的公链有可能成为未来金融技术设施的底层技术，这才是重要的。
On a positive note, the Cao Cao analysis states that, while the risks in the Bitcoin market are high and the prospects for the use of the bitcoin are highly controversial, it is important that the bitcoin relates to the development of the bottom technological architecture of the financial system based on the block chain, that the development of digital money, digital finance and financial science and technology is an inseparable systemic issue and that the bitcoin market cannot be viewed in isolation and that the bitcoin itself is not important, but that the public chain behind the bitco is likely to become the bottom of the future financial infrastructure.
尽管比特币ETF获批，但全球对于比特币和加密货币的分歧依然巨大。
Despite the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, the global divide over bitcoin and encrypted currency remains enormous.
不可忽视的是，币圈曾爆出一系列破产和丑闻，例如FTX加密货币交易所垮台，其创始人班克曼-弗里德（SBF）被认定犯有欺诈罪，其他交易所也曾被指控藐视美国证券法，全球最大的加密货币交易所币安最近承认违反了美国反洗钱法，这一切让许多投资者深感疑虑。
It is important not to lose sight of a series of bankruptcy and scandals in the currency ring, such as the collapse of the FTX encrypted currency exchange, the conviction of its founder, Bankman-Frid (SBF), for fraud, the alleged contempt of the United States securities law by other exchanges, and the recent admission by the world's largest crypto-currency exchange that it had violated the United States anti-money-laundering law, which cast serious doubts on many investors.
在刘斌看来，比特币ETF获得通过只是比特币发展过程中的一个节点，比特币以及加密货币领域还存在自身难以解决的矛盾，因此长期的发展还值得观察，需要时间来验证。
In Liu Bin's view, the adoption of the Bitcoin ETF was only a node in the development of bitcoin, and there were self-resolved contradictions in the area of bitcoin and crypto-currency, so long-term developments were worth observing and would take time to verify.
（编辑：和佳）
(eds.: and good)
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