比特币是什么
What's a bitcoin?
比特币是一种由开源的P2P软件产生的电子币、数字币，是一种网络虚拟资产。
Bitcoin is an electronic, digital currency generated by open-source P2P software and a virtual network asset.
据称，比特币是由日本经济学家中本聪于2008年发明、2009年正式发行的。P2P的去中心化特性与算法本身可以最大程度保证无法通过大量制造比特币来人为操控币值。基于密码学的设计可以使比特币只能被真实的拥有者转移或支付。这确保了货币所有权与流通交易的匿名性。
Bitcoin is said to have been invented in 2008 by Japanese economists Bennett, and officially issued in 2009. The decentralized properties and algorithms of P2P can by themselves provide the maximum assurance that the value of the currency cannot be manipulated artificially by mass-manufacturing bitcoin.
金洋洋是比特币忠实玩家。她喜欢泡在中关村的车库咖啡店里关注和讨论比特币。与其他玩家不同的是，她边玩边做自媒体，每天发布比特币的数据观察。从年初的1比特币13.5美元到如今一举突破1200美元，比特币的疯狂行情令人叹为观止。金洋洋表示，疯狂的行情并不是其痴迷比特币的主要原因，她看中的是未来比特币或将成为货币的发展前景。
Kim Yoon is a big fan of Bitcoin. She likes to watch and talk about Bitcoin in a garage coffee shop in Nakamura. Unlike other players, she plays with her own media and publishes daily bitcoin data and observations.
比特币疯狂的行情引起了全世界关注，尤其是近两个月来有不少中国玩家涌入。尽管有金洋洋这样的“职业玩家”，但也不乏大量跟风的投机者。比特币真的能颠覆现代货币体系成为国际通行货币吗？投资比特币真的能稳稳地搭上财富列车吗？记者连日来广泛接触比特币玩家，走访据称能用比特币交易的商家，采访金融专家，力图梳理出比特币的前景和风险。
Bitcoin’s frenzy has attracted worldwide attention, especially the influx of Chinese players in the last two months. Despite “professional players” like the Golden Ocean, there is no shortage of speculators.
越来越多的分析表明，疯狂的比特币背后，是其货币功能的缺位以及投机风险的汇集。玩家“小鹏”的一番感慨颇能反映比特币现在的境地，“比特币世界目前是‘自由丛林’，算是法律的灰色地带，责任自负，指望别人的保护是可笑的。”作为最早接触比特币的人，国内“比特币对冲基金”创始人端宏斌的一席话更具代表性。“我起初怀着对比特币去中心化的货币理想进入这个市场，但现在我已经不玩了，因为它已经沦为一种纯粹的投机工具。”
A growing body of analysis suggests that the crazy bitcoin is behind its currency function and a pool of speculative risks. The sentiment of the player “Pon” reflects the current situation of bitcoin: “The world of bitcoin is now a ‘free jungle’, a grey area of law, and it is ridiculous to assume responsibility and expect protection from others.” As the first person to touch bitcoin, the founder of the domestic “bitcoin hedge fund” was more representative of a puncture. “I entered the market with the ideal of money that was centralized by bitcoin, but now I am not playing it, because it has become a purely speculative tool.”
“货币”理想恐成泡影
The idea of currency is afraid of bubbles
大多数投资者只是在交易中低吸高抛赚取差价，这样的投机行为造成了比特币兑换率的震荡，其作为货币的实际支付功能并没有真正体现
Most investors merely make a price difference in their transactions, and this speculation has caused a bitcoin exchange rate shock, which is not really reflected in the actual payment function as a currency.
“比特币的开源P2P（点对点）电子现金系统，没有中央服务器或托管方，所有一切都是基于参与者，完全去中心化，不需要货币发行机构，不受任何国家政府控制，可在全球自由流通，这是一个前所未有的货币理念和实验。”金洋洋认为，比特币拥有成为未来货币的潜力。
“The open-source P2P (point-to-point) electronic cash system of Bitcoin, without a central server or trustee, all of which is based on participants, completely decentralized, without the need for a money issuer, without any government control, free to circulate globally is an unprecedented monetary concept and experiment.” The Golden Ocean believes that Bitcoin has the potential to become a future currency.
另一个“潜力无限”的好消息是，目前，有个别商家已表示接受用比特币进行支付。不过，记者实地采访发现，最终还是以人民币结算。有比特币玩家专门为车库咖啡店设计了一款“ipad app”支付终端，可以利用移动终端上的软件进行比特币支付。但实际上，该店并不用比特币进行财务结算，即每天都会有玩家到店，用人民币买走当天咖啡店接受的比特币。也就是说，车库咖啡店还是以人民币进行结算，比特币并不入账。
Another good news of the “unlimited potential” is that, at present, individual traders have indicated that they will accept payment in bitcoin. However, an interview with a journalist in the field found that it was eventually settled in renminbi.
雕爷牛腩餐厅也宣布，从11月21日起接受比特币支付账单。但据记者了解，其在北京的3家分店中只有1家接受过比特币支付，且只有1次。
According to the journalist, only one of the three branches in Beijing has been paid by bitcoin, and only one has been paid by bitcoin.
不久前，中国人民银行明确表态，短期内不可能承认比特币的合法性。对此，中国社会科学院金融研究所公司金融研究室主任张跃文表示，“央行的态度让比特币面临一个尴尬的境地。它既不是现实的商品，又不是货币。比特币在一定意义上是存在的，但目前最多只能说是一种虚拟的物品而非货币。”
Not long ago, the People’s Bank of China made it clear that it would not be possible to recognize the legitimacy of Bitcoin in the short term. In response, the Director of the Corporate Financial Research Unit of the Institute of Financial Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Zhang Jianwen, said, “The attitude of the central bank has put Bitcoin in an awkward position. It is neither a realistic commodity nor a currency. Bitcoin exists in a sense, but at best it is a virtual object, not a currency.”
“不要把它看成一种货币，看成一种商品或者虚拟物品就行了。”中央财经大学金融学院中国银行业研究中心主任郭田勇这样界定比特币的属性，他认为大多数投资者只是在交易中低吸高抛赚取差价，这样的投机行为造成了比特币兑换率的震荡，其作为货币的实际支付功能并没有真正体现。
“Don't look at it as a currency, either as a commodity or as a virtual object.” Kwok Tan Yong, Director of the Chinese Banking Research Centre of the Central Financial and Economic University, defined the properties of Bitcoin, which, in his view, most investors are simply making a difference in terms of low- and high-fouling prices in their transactions. Such speculation caused a shock in the bitcoin exchange rate, which is not really reflected in the actual payment function as a currency.
张跃文还表示，“我们不称比特币为货币，除了没有官方认可的合法性地位，还因为从来没有任何一种货币像比特币一样，币值如此不稳定。它的币值越不稳定，投机价值越高，作为货币本身的价值和可信度就越低。”
Zhang Jian also said, “We do not call bitcoin a currency, except that there is no officially recognized legitimacy, because no currency has ever been as unstable as bitcoin. The more unstable it is, the higher the speculative value, the lower the value and credibility of the currency itself.”
随着比特币的“走红”，网络上还出现了利特币、元宝币、屌丝币等其他竞争性虚拟货币。张跃文认为，比特币这一类虚拟货币作为商品的使用价值并不具有独特性，同时又没有得到国家层面的认同，所以虽然能在互联网上流通，但很难在现实世界流通。“不管是金本位还是固定汇率，某一种货币的价值都是由固定的贵金属或者主要的国际流通货币作支撑，在没有足够支撑的情况下，至少要有国家的强制力保证其流通的合法性，但比特币等都不具备这些条件。”
With Bitcoin's “Red”, other competitive virtual currencies, such as Littco, Yuan Treasure, and Dickie, have appeared on the Internet. Littco's use as a commodity is not considered unique and is not recognized at the national level, so it is difficult to circulate on the Internet, although it is difficult to do so in the real world. “Be it gold standard or fixed exchange rate, the value of a currency is supported by fixed precious metals or major internationally circulating currencies, and, in the absence of sufficient support, at least by national coercion to guarantee the legitimacy of its circulation, but none of these conditions are met, such as Bitcoins.”
那么比特币在未来有没有可能成为国际上合法的通行货币呢？张跃文认为，在虚拟货币流通的合法性问题上，各国立法机关的反应还没有达到应有水平，但如果要视其为合法货币，就需要面临货币对话问题，“传统的货币政策是需要协调机制的，其中存在着汇率和利率的问题，目前没有一个可以对话的比特币代表人来协调货币上的各种政策。”
Is Bitcoin likely to become an internationally legitimate currency in the future? According to Zhang Jianjian, the response of national legislatures on the legitimacy of virtual currency flows has not yet reached the level required, but if they are to be considered legitimate, they need to be confronted with the question of monetary dialogue: “traditional monetary policy needs coordination mechanisms, with exchange rates and interest rates in question, and there is currently no dialogueable Bitcoin representative to coordinate monetary policies.”
张跃文进一步解释，“在现有的货币规则内，比特币要想争取到合法地位必须要和其他货币建立某种协调机制。这既涉及货币政策，又涉及国家资本的流入流出管制政策。比特币的去中心化，意味着不存在发行当局，所以它根本没有办法参与全球的协调对话机制。”
Zhang Jian further explained that “in the existing monetary rules, Bitcoin has to have some kind of coordination mechanism with other currencies if it is to gain legitimacy. This involves both monetary policy and the policy of regulating the inflow and exit of capital from the country. The decentralization of Bitcoin means that there is no issuing authority, so it has no way of participating in a global mechanism for coordinated dialogue.”
谨防陷入风险漩涡
{\bord0\shad0\alphaH3D}You're in danger. {\bord0\shad0\alphaH3D} {\bord0\shad0\alphaH3D}
在疯狂的行情面前，更应该对风险有客观的认识。比特币面临着潜在的信用风险、市场风险、安全风险
In the face of madness, it is more important to have an objective understanding of risk. Bitcoin faces potential credit risk, market risk, security risk.
在资产管理领域，收益与风险始终并存，如果投资承担了过高的风险，那么高收益本身的价值也会降低。但目前，国内很多投资者不惜承担高风险追求短期的高收益，这种赌博投机心理恰恰是投资过程中最需要避免的。在疯狂的行情面前，更应该对风险有客观的认识。
In the area of asset management, returns and risks always coexist, and if investments take too high a risk, the value per se of high returns will decline. But at present, many domestic investors are willing to take high risks in pursuit of short-term high returns, and this gambling speculation is precisely what is most needed to avoid in the investment process.
通过对玩家和专家的采访，记者梳理了比特币面临的几种风险。
Through interviews with players and experts, journalists have sorted out several risks faced by Bitcoin.
首先，比特币面临着潜在的信用风险。端宏斌表示，“比特币的增长完全是依靠玩家的信心支撑，不同于货币背后的政府信用，其完全基于程序设定产生和流通，没有得到任何实体机构的担保。”
First, Bitcoin is exposed to potential credit risk. Endobin states that “the growth of Bitcoin is entirely underpinned by the confidence of the player, unlike the government credit behind the currency, which is entirely based on the creation and circulation of process setting and is not guaranteed by any entity”.
中国银行法学研究会副秘书长李爱君也认为，比特币未来能否得到国家的认可要看它是否比现有货币更有优越性。如果没有，就不可能成为货币，因此存在信用风险。“目前来看，比特币似乎随时存在消失的风险。这种虚拟资产极其脆弱，如果发行者的信任破产或叫停，数字化的比特币将一文不值。”李爱君说。
“To date, Bitcoin seems to be at risk of disappearing. This virtual asset is extremely fragile, and a digital bitcoin would be worthless if the issuer’s trust went bankrupt or stopped.” Lee Aikun says.
其次，市场风险也难以回避。从经济学理论的角度看，商品的市场价格取决于它的需求，放在比特币市场，需求就是投资者的心理。北京安邦咨询有限公司研究员刘枭认为，“这种投机心理不稳定导致了需求的不稳定，最后反映到比特币价格变动的不稳定。”而比特币的交易平台不受国家监管机构监管，投资者将面临着市场被操纵的风险。
In economic theory, the market price of commodities depends on its demand, placed in the Bitcoin market, and demand is the investor’s mind. According to Liu, “this instability of speculation has led to instability of demand, and is ultimately reflected in instability in bitcoin prices.” The Bitcoin trading platform is not regulated by state regulators, and investors are exposed to the risk of market manipulation.
李爱君也认为，“股票尚且有涨跌限制，有开盘时间，而比特币买卖没有涨跌幅度限制，一天可以涨几十倍、上百倍，也可以从100元跌到1分钱，可以随买随卖，7×24小时开盘，一旦遇上强大的做市商操盘，投资很可能在几秒钟内化为乌有。”
Lee Ai-kun also argued that “the stock stock has a limit on rising and falling, there is a time limit on opening, and there is no limit on selling and selling bitcoin, which can go up dozens and hundreds per day, and it can go down from $100 to a penny, which can be bought and sold, 7 x 24 hours a day, and investment is likely to collapse in a few seconds in the event of a powerful commercial game”.
再次，安全风险同样不可忽视。比特币的特点让交易者十分容易遭受欺诈。对此李爱君分析，比特币的交易完全建立在彼此信任的基础上，交易平台没有经过相关部门的资质审查，交易者也无需进行身份识别，“只需注册一个用户名，将资金转给中间人的支付宝账户，然后由中间人将他的资金转到交易平台，中间人从中收取5‰的手续费，这个过程没有保证和监管机构，中间人完全可以将交易者的资金卷走。”她进一步解释，“目前许多比特币交易平台的服务器搭建在国外，且没有在国内工商部门注册备案，一旦发生卷款潜逃事件，该平台比特币持有者的资产将无处可寻，即使用法律手段也难以保障自身权益。一旦发生比特币资产的侵害，只能按照权益侵害行为进行界定，而证据的取得因其虚拟性将困难重重。”
Again, security risks cannot be ignored. Bitcoin's characteristics make traders highly susceptible to fraud. In this context, Lee Ai-kun analyses that Bitcoin's transactions are based entirely on mutual trust, that trading platforms are not subject to qualification review by the relevant sector, that traders need not be identified, that “it is only necessary to register a user's name, to transfer the funds to the payment account of the intermediary, and then to transfer his funds to the trading platform by an intermediary, from which the intermediary will charge a fee of five kilos, from which the process is not guaranteed and regulated, and that the intermediary will be able to roll the funds of the traders.” She further explains that “many Bitcoe trading platform servers are currently set up abroad and not registered in the domestic business sector, and that the platform will have no assets in the event of a money flight, that is difficult to secure its own interests, i.e. in the event of a violation of the assets of the Bitcoin, they will only be defined in terms of abuse of interests, and the evidence will be difficult to obtain because of their virtuality.”
此外，玩家扈罗罗告诉记者，“虽然比特币的算法十分可靠，但比特币钱包存在安全风险，现实中就有很多比特币钱包被盗的案例，政府想管其实也管不了。”
In addition, player thorrow told reporters, “Although the bitcoin algorithm is reliable, there are security risks to the bitcoin wallet, and there are many cases of bitcoin wallets being stolen in reality, and the government can't control it.”
还有观点认为，比特币投资可能会面临预期落差的风险。很多比特币忠实玩家都坚信比特币可以成为未来的支付工具，但玩家“涎皮居士”则对比特币的货币未来表示担忧，“现在市场上有很多投机的成分，与初衷渐行渐远。”刘枭也认为，如今比特币的存在意义并不是用来支付而是用来投机，而且兑换率的极度不稳定，这就决定了它不能用于支付。“当比特币达不到人们心中的预期，这个落差会对现有投资者产生怎样的影响？还有多少人会继续冲进这个市场？这都是潜在风险。”
The view was also expressed that Bitcoin investment might run the risk of an expected fall. Many of the faithful Bitcoin players were convinced that bitcoin could be a future payment tool, but the player “salves” expressed concern about the future of bitcoin's currency: “There are a lot of speculative elements in the market now, moving away from the original purpose.” Liu Xiang agreed that today Bitcoin exists not for payment, but for speculation, but for the extreme instability of the exchange rate, which determines that it cannot be paid. “When bitcoin falls short of expectations, how will this lag affect existing investors? How many people will continue to rush into the market? This is a potential risk.”
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